Welcome to PFF’s first betting market replace of bowl season.
This text will clarify the components that drive line actions in betting markets, serving to you assess whether or not a change is an overreaction or underreaction to those market influences.
In case you aren’t acquainted, click on right here for a deeper rationalization of what we purpose to attain every week with our NFL model of this text. For the Spherical 1 CFP model, click on right here.
Market dynamics are vastly completely different in bowl video games and largely pushed by switch portal entries, participant opt-outs and training modifications. It’s frequent to see excessive swings in spreads and totals main as much as and even on gameday as shock opt-outs are introduced. One option to acquire an edge in bowl season is handicapping groups’ motivation, which is extra of an artwork than a science.
An attention-grabbing wrinkle to remember is that gamers who’ve entered the portal can nonetheless play in bowl video games. This pattern could grow to be extra frequent with latest developments of NIL and revenue-sharing.
SOUTH ALABAMA VS. WESTERN MICHIGAN
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | SA -9.5 |
SA -8 |
|
Whole |
60.5 |
57.5 |
Unfold: After opening up at 9.5, the primary transfer despatched this line to 10.5. From there, it’s been all Western Michigan driving this quantity down. Uncertainty across the standing of QB Gio Lopez (South Alabama) is taking part in a task. Portal-wise, the Jaguars will probably be with out their most explosive working again and a key defensive again. The market is presently cut up between 7.5 and eight.
Whole: It was a fast slide down three factors from the opener to 60.5. This quantity hasn’t moved a lot during the last two days.
Present Portal Gamers (min 100 snaps)
MEMPHIS VS. WEST VIRGINIA
Scooter’s Espresso Frisco Bowl
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | WVU -4.5 |
MEM -4.5 |
|
Whole |
58.5 |
59 |
Unfold: Big swing right here with a nine-point transfer crossing by means of each key numbers of three. Inside 24 hours of opening final week, Memphis was already a small favourite. That motion has continued, and a part of it’s linked to Neal Brown being fired as the pinnacle coach at WVU. Newly re-hired Wealthy Rodriguez is not going to coach the bowl recreation. An attention-grabbing observe is that WVU reportedly has near 100% bowl participation regardless of the teaching change.
Whole: The full market initially dipped earlier than bouncing again as much as and thru the opening 58.5. Most books are at 59, however we’ve but to see something greater than that.
Purchase/Promote: I’ll promote the Memphis transfer and take the Mountaineers at +4.5 in QB Garrett Greene’s farewell recreation. It is a vital transfer contemplating stories that many of the group will play.
Present Portal Gamers (min 100 snaps)
WESTERN KENTUCKY VS. JAMES MADISON
Boca Raton Bowl
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | JMU -6.5 |
JMU -9.5 |
|
Whole |
52.5 |
52.5 |
Unfold: It’s been one-way motion driving this line up on JMU by means of 7 and out to 9.5. We’ve but to see a ten pop up, however as you may see under, Western Kentucky has fairly just a few entries into the portal, together with beginning QB Caden Veltkamp. JMU gained’t be at 100% both with QB Alonza Barnett out with an damage.
Whole: Not a lot right here, with 52.5s throughout the board. This hasn’t fluctuated greater than some extent in both course.
Purchase/Promote: I’ll promote the JMU motion and lock within the Hilltoppers at +9.5. That’s a number of factors, and there’s a non-zero probability that Veltkamp and different portal entries will nonetheless play this recreation. If Veltkamp fits up, this quantity gained’t be +9.5.
Present Portal Gamers (min 100 snaps)
CAL VS. UNLV
Artwork of Sport LA Bowl
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | CAL -1.5 |
CAL -1.5 |
|
Whole |
51.5 |
50.5 |
Unfold: After opening at -1.5, Barry Odom’s departure helped transfer this line to as excessive as Cal -3.5. That quantity has since dropped and returned to the opener, with Cal set to be down beginning QB Fernando Mendoza and doubtlessly backup QB Chandler Rogers.
Whole: That is down one level from the opener and is 50.5 at almost each ebook.
Purchase/Promote: I’ll purchase in on the below at 50.5 with quarterback issues and a deflated UNLV group narrowly lacking the Faculty Soccer Playoff, solely simply to lose its head coach.
Present Portal Gamers (min 100 snaps)
GEORGIA SOUTHERN VS. SAM HOUSTON STATE
R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | GS -1.5 |
GS -6 |
|
Whole |
47.5 |
48.5 |
Unfold: A swath of Sam Houston State gamers have opted to enter the portal after dropping their head coach. At the moment, Georgia Southern has but to see a portal entry from a participant who took greater than 100 snaps this previous season. This line has pushed all the best way to 7, however we noticed some market resistance at that time. It’s since dropped to six, and there are a few books which have moved to five.5.
Whole: The market is presently cut up between 48.5 and 49. This whole sat at 47.5 for a pair days earlier than shifting up some extent.
Present Portal Gamers (min 100 snaps)
OHIO VS. JACKSONVILLE STATE
StaffDNA Treatment Bowl
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | OH -1.5 |
OH -3.5 |
|
Whole |
54.5 |
54.5 |
Unfold: With Wealthy Rodriguez taking the nation street residence, we’ve seen a few guys put their names within the portal. Ohio can be down its head coach, with Tim Albin taking the Charlotte opening. This line was shifting because the Rodriguez hypothesis was heating up. It has pushed out and previous 3, however we now have seen 3.5 as a resistance level. Until we see extra participant motion, I don’t suppose this one will get a lot greater.
Whole: The full has fluctuated between 53 and 55 earlier than settling at 54.5. There are nonetheless a few 54s.
Present Portal Gamers (min 100 snaps)
TULANE VS. FLORIDA
Union Dwelling Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | FLA -8.5 |
FLA -14 |
|
Whole |
50.5 |
50.5 |
Unfold: It’s been all Gator cash taking this from the opener of 8.5 to a two-touchdown favourite. A lot of the motion right here is tied to Tulane beginning quarterback Darian Mensah already having dedicated to Duke from his brief portal stint. This will probably be one other constructing block for coach Billy Napier after a promising end to the season, having performed one of many hardest schedules in latest historical past. We have now seen some buy-back on Tulane when the road hit 14.5.
Whole: The full has fluctuated as excessive as 52 and as little as 49 earlier than touchdown again on the opening variety of 50.5.
Present Portal Gamers (min 100 snaps)
