• Drafting quarterbacks early was a profitable technique: Those that drafted Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson had a great probability of creating the fantasy playoffs.
• Younger tight ends had been a nightmare: Sam LaPorta, Kyle Pitts, Dalton Kincaid and Jake Ferguson noticed their fantasy manufacturing decline as an alternative of enhance this season.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full entry to all of our in-season fantasy instruments, together with weekly rankings, the Begin-Sit Optimizer and extra. Join now!
Estimated studying time: 8 minutes
With the fantasy soccer season over, it’s time to evaluate the fantasy draft season and determine what went effectively, what went improper, and what was a gray space. That is to be clear, significantly concerning my preseason recap articles to see the place I can enhance for the 2025 season.
This text compares my draft rankings and articles to FantasyPros’ consensus 2024 ADP. Fantasy factors per sport had been typically the benchmark for the way effectively gamers did reasonably than complete fantasy factors. I had Christian McCaffrey as the highest total choose, however so did ADP, so these hits and misses are ignored. All recommendation referenced on this article was for single-quarterback redraft leagues solely, utilizing PPR scoring, and doesn’t essentially apply to greatest ball or dynasty.
What I Obtained Proper
Not drafting Travis Etienne within the second spherical
Etienne was the consensus RB8, placing him as a mid-second-round choose, whereas I had him at RB14, which was nonetheless too excessive. In his participant profile, I famous Etienne’s drop in enjoying time and fantasy manufacturing in 2023 and that “his upside solely exists if the offensive line improves dramatically or if Tank Bigsby retains turning the ball over, forcing Etienne to play over 80% of Jacksonville’s offensive snaps once more.”
Bigsby was a non-factor within the passing sport, dropping two of 9 passes. He fumbled 3 times within the run sport, however that didn’t cease him from main the staff in carries and grading out as the higher runner of the 2. The run blocking on the staff improved however not dramatically sufficient to make them an asset.
Whereas accidents actually contributed to simply how far Etienne fell, Etienne was nonetheless exterior of the top-20 operating backs early within the season earlier than accidents took their toll.
Nailing the league-winning operating backs
James Prepare dinner, Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs had been my three league-winning operating backs. They had been all slated to be the clear lead operating backs on playoff groups, so I typically had them ranked forward of consensus and forward of gamers like Etienne and Rachaad White. All three completed among the many high 10 operating backs in fantasy factors per sport.
Mixon was significantly noteworthy as a result of he was included within the “My Guys“ piece on the finish of the fantasy draft season. He was typically included as the best fourth-round goal within the “Excellent Draft Technique” collection, together with the ultimate 12-team version. Whereas he missed a while early within the season because of damage, he was nonetheless the fourth-round choose almost certainly to guide a staff to the fantasy playoffs at ESPN.
Rating Derrick Henry and De’Von Achane increased than consensus
Whereas I wasn’t as vocal about my help for Henry or Achane, I ended up with them as my sixth and ninth-ranked operating backs, respectively, whereas the consensus had them ninth and Eleventh. They completed fourth and seventh in fantasy factors per sport. My solely concern with Henry was quantity. I famous Achane was the riskiest of the operating again picks, however one which I used to be extra keen to take than others.
Figuring out Bucky Irving can be a significant factor within the Tampa Bay Buccaneers backfield
I famous instantly after the NFL draft that Irving was the massive winner at operating again. I ended up rating Irving 4 rounds forward of consensus and calling him considered one of my sleepers. Rachaad White was one of many 5 gamers I listed as my gamers to keep away from this season, and I had White as an possibility two rounds later than consensus. The one gamers within the high 36 by ADP for whom I used to be a spherical or decrease than consensus had been Etienne and White.
The 2 ended up back-to-back in fantasy factors per sport, and Irving was a full level per sport forward of White. I favored Irving largely for his alternative to be the lead rusher within the Tampa Bay backfield, however he exceeded expectations with a top-10 PFF dashing grade amongst operating backs with a minimum of 100 carries. White remained fantasy-relevant largely because of his landing complete. His 9 touchdowns are tied for Twentieth-most amongst all gamers no matter place. He additionally improved considerably as a participant, which helped decrease his dropoff.
Avoiding Zamir White
Not drafting White was the operating again opinion I felt most strongly about. He was the consensus RB22, and I had him at RB32, almost three rounds decrease than ADP. White didn’t have a single week as a top-32 fantasy operating again.
White appeared like an enormous winner in each free company and the draft after the staff misplaced Josh Jacobs and solely added Alexander Mattison in free company and sixth-round rookie Dylan Laube within the draft. He was RB9 over the ultimate 4 weeks of 2023 when Jacobs was injured.
The issue was that the Raiders had a brand new offensive coordinator, and it was clear all through the preseason that White wouldn’t be used equally to final 12 months. He wouldn’t play on third downs or two-minute drills, and his position on early downs wasn’t safe. Mattison performed considerably on early downs in a rotation with White, and even Laube was given some alternatives. Groups keep away from utilizing their operating again within the preseason greater than most positions to keep away from them taking pointless hits, and White performed into the second half of a preseason sport.
I totally detailed why White needs to be averted amongst my 5 gamers to keep away from piece and boldly predicted that he wouldn’t be a fantasy starter by mid-season. White’s fantasy manufacturing was even worse than anticipated within the first few weeks. Mattison vultured touchdowns, and the Raiders offense was as unhealthy as anticipated, which all the time hurts early down-backs. White misplaced his job to Mattison. Accidents additionally took their toll over the remainder of the season, however White was benched earlier than the accidents began.
Itemizing Chase Brown as a breakout
The operating again in Joe Burrow’s offense had been a goldmine for fantasy functions, so if considered one of Zack Moss or Brown might pull forward from the opposite, that operating again would have a number of fantasy worth. I ended up with Moss and Brown back-to-back in my fantasy rankings, whereas ADP had a 17-spot hole between the 2, making Brown the higher worth.
Moss landed on season-ending injured reserve mid-season, and Brown averaged 20.6 PPR factors from Weeks 9-17. Whereas it took an damage for Brown to work out totally, the overall technique within the mid-to-late rounds of the drafts ought to deal with eventualities the place a participant might work out in an enormous method.
Rating Nick Chubb decrease than consensus
Chubb was a consensus RB34, whereas I put Him at RB42. Early in 2023, he wanted surgical procedure to restore his MCL, a meniscus and later his ACL. Gamers are typically a lot much less environment friendly when initially getting back from accidents that extreme. Chubb has all the time been an elite runner, however his fantasy worth has been restricted by not enjoying on passing downs. Different operating backs getting back from main accidents have, at instances, been OK because of quantity, however Chubb was by no means going to see sufficient quantity.
My backside line in his participant profile was, “Chubb is a whole gamble. He has top-10 potential, however there’s additionally an opportunity he splits early-down snaps all season and underperforms, making him unreliable as a fantasy starter. In a extra informal league, somebody will seemingly draft him a lot sooner than they need to, based mostly on his fame and with out understanding the damage dangers.”
Chubb was a top-24 operating again in solely two of his eight video games. He averaged 3.3 yards per carry.
Rating Chuba Hubbard increased than consensus
I ranked Hubbard as RB36, whereas consensus had him at RB41. I used to be excessive on Hubbard by two rounds in comparison with consensus. Whereas many of the gamers drafted in that vary had been high-upside backups, Hubbard was a starter who can be restricted later within the season as soon as Jonathon Brooks was wholesome. A mix of establishing himself forward of Miles Sanders and a scarcity of optimism round Brooks’ well being led me to maneuver Hubbard up the rankings. Dave Canales’ historical past with RB1’s in fantasy gave at least some purpose for optimism for prime quantity.
Hubbard ended up as a top-10 runner by PFF run grade, and Brooks’ damage lasted longer than many anticipated, main Hubbard to exceed expectations. There was a little bit of luck right here, however the normal thought course of of getting a projected starter forward of the high-upside rookies was typically the appropriate one.
What I Obtained Unsuitable
Not drafting Saquon Barkley within the first spherical
Barkley has been the highest operating again in fantasy soccer this season. In his participant profile, I knew an enormous season could possibly be in retailer for Barkley. The improved offensive line was going to be a serious optimistic for Barkley. Breakaway massive runs have been Barkley’s sturdy level in latest seasons, and the road was going to create the likelihood for these massive performs, which made for lots of upside.
There have been too many causes for concern round Barkley that I didn’t have for different gamers, which led me to decrease Barkley to the early elements of the second spherical. First, there was the tush push resulting in Jalen Hurts probably stealing too many touchdowns. Nonetheless, Barkley ended up with 9 touchdowns of over 10 yards. The following most by a participant was 5, and the common for a staff is 2.5. No different operating again since 2010 has greater than seven in a season. Adrian Peterson had 9 in his historic rookie season, DeAngelo Williams earned 9 in 2008, and Chris Johnson completed with eight in his 2,000-yard season in 2009.
These massive performs make an unlimited distinction for fantasy soccer functions. In case you eliminated all gamers’ 10 or more-yard landing runs, Barkley would have the ninth-most PPR factors per sport for operating backs.
Concern was additionally expressed about his receiving. Barkley set season lows for receptions per sport and receiving yards per sport, however his massive features within the run sport had been so good that the shortage of receiving manufacturing didn’t matter. The opposite concern was merely how good a runner he was.
He was good, however when contemplating first-round picks, you want somebody glorious. Plenty of the blame for Barkley’s numbers lately could possibly be blamed on the offense and offensive line with the New York Giants. It’s tough to separate a operating again from his staff. His fee at avoiding tackles has been low in previous seasons and remained low this season, however once more, that didn’t matter together with his explosive runs.
I’m OK that I didn’t predict Barkley would have a historic fee of huge performs that we haven’t seen in 15 years, however extra may be completed to separate a runner from their staff, and perhaps there was extra sign that Barkley was nonetheless a superb participant regardless of his stats.
The operating backs to focus on in rounds seven and eight
I most well-liked choosing two operating backs within the first six rounds. The commonest operating again I urged within the seventh spherical was Tony Pollard, and he was the one one of many 10 operating backs within the seventh or eighth spherical to complete among the many high 24 in fantasy factors per sport. Nonetheless, typically I’d counsel choosing a special operating again, which didn’t go effectively.
I additionally urged Devin Singletary, Javonte Williams and Jaylen Warren as operating backs in these two rounds, however they lived as much as their ADP. In a preseason sport, the Giants used their starters for a complete half, and Singletary dominated offensive snaps over Eric Grey, suggesting a big position for him. Williams and Warren had been listed amongst my breakout gamers for the season.
The operating backs on this vary had been typically gamers in clear two-back committees and beginning operating backs with loads of younger competitors. The fantasy neighborhood typically did a great job of projecting operating backs this season and a scarcity of gamers popping out of nowhere seemingly contributed to the gamers in these rounds not being of a lot worth. The highest 12 operating backs in fantasy factors per sport had been all among the many high 18 operating backs picked. Seventeen of the highest 20 had been picked within the first 5 rounds.
I might have been increased or decrease on any operating backs on this vary, however I might have been improper on the operating backs I used to be excessive on. Ideally, I might have been increased on the highest 20 operating backs generally and decrease on gamers exterior of the highest 20, however that doesn’t essentially imply the identical traits will maintain subsequent season. This shall be one other development to look into this offseason.
Lacking on J.Okay. Dobbins and Rico Dowdle
Just a few operating backs had been picked exterior the highest 100, which impacted fantasy groups this season. Chase Brown, Chuba Hubbard and Bucky Irving had been three of the 5 gamers who completed within the high 30 in fantasy factors per sport, which I used to be excessive on. The opposite two had been Dobbins and Dowdle, who I used to be decrease than consensus.
With Dobbins, I wasn’t anticipating him to take such a excessive proportion of carries for Los Angeles. I additionally didn’t anticipate the Chargers to be nearly as good as they’ve been, permitting the staff to run as a lot as they’ve. He’s carried the ball a minimum of 14 instances in all however three of the video games he performed. Dobbins’ damage historical past performed an enormous half in my perception that he was unlikely to see that giant workload. Given how a lot different gamers have struggled to return from a number of accidents, I’m undecided there are any long-term takeaways right here.
With Dowdle, there wasn’t a lot in his profile to counsel he can be an awesome participant, however the path to quantity was there. Honest McCormick, Jeremy McNichols and Emanuel Wilson have a minimum of performed effectively when given the chance after not having a historical past of success within the NFL. It’s potential I’m not accounting effectively sufficient for high-end outcomes for operating backs the place there isn’t a lot pattern dimension of knowledge for that operating again.
Gray Space
Preseason Confirmations
Many backfields modified this offseason, as gamers had been on new groups with new teaching staffs. In a number of circumstances, groups used their starters for a minimum of a part of a sport within the preseason. Their backfield adopted a rotation that we anticipated they’d use within the common season, and the preseason utilization carried on into the common season as anticipated. Whereas these aren’t essentially issues I acquired proper as a result of most individuals acquired it proper, they did result in extra confidence in rating specific gamers.
In preseason Week 1, the Commanders and Titans, with new offensive play-callers, showcased their new two-man backfields with Brian Robinson Jr., Austin Ekeler, Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. Each groups used a heavy rotation of gamers, as Robinson and Pollard performed extra on early downs and Ekeler and Spears enjoying extra on passing downs. The Titans used their starters once more within the third sport. That point, Pollard performed the primary drive and Spears the second. Usually, a operating again enjoying one drive and exiting doesn’t talk about how the 2 will rotate and solely factors to which operating again is forward.
The Broncos used starters in each their first and second video games. The primary sport urged that Samaje Perine would nonetheless be a part of the rotation, however the second sport reversed that thought. They used a two-man rotation, which appeared unsettled, and that rotation has continued all through the season.
The Browns’ third preseason sport confirmed Jerome Ford was forward of Pierre Sturdy Jr. on the depth chart. The Bears’ first preseason sport had some odd utilization, as D’Andre Swift solely performed two snaps however not the primary two. It typically urged the Bears would use an early down again and a third-down again. Travis Homer was in competition for the third-down position. Homer or Roschon Johnson has performed important snaps on third downs all through the season.
What I Obtained Proper
Drafting Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown or Justin Jefferson over Breece Corridor and Bijan Robinson
I agreed with ADP that Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill needs to be the primary three picks for higher or worse. ADP had Robinson and Corridor as the subsequent two picks, whereas I constantly had them decrease than Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Justin Jefferson. This was constant in each my rankings and excellent draft articles.
The explanation was Chase, St. Brown and Jefferson had been a lot safer bets. They had been all top-12 final season, and whereas Jefferson was altering quarterbacks, it was very secure to imagine they’d all be nice this 12 months. They had been the highest three extensive receivers in fantasy factors per sport. There was extra threat round Robinson and Corridor. Robinson had a brand new teaching workers and a gifted Tyler Allgeier behind him. Breece Corridor hasn’t seen as many targets with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.
Robinson had an awesome season, however groups who drafted one of many three extensive receivers had been likelier to make the fantasy playoffs this 12 months.
Rating Davante Adams increased than consensus
I ended up with Adams because the 14th-best choose within the draft, whereas the consensus had him as choose 20. In my excellent draft technique articles, he was typically a mid-second-round choose. I had him forward of Marvin Harrison Jr. at extensive receiver and operating backs like Kyren Williams, Travis Etienne Jr. and Isiah Pacheco.
In his participant profile, I acknowledged he wasn’t totally the identical participant he as soon as was, however he nonetheless performed at a really excessive degree. The final pleasure was on his reunion with Luke Getsy. He scored the 14th-most fantasy factors by a large receiver over the primary three weeks. He then reunited with Aaron Rodgers with the New York Jets. Since Week 7, Adams has scored the Tenth-most fantasy factors.
Rating Deebo Samuel Sr. and Michael Pittman Jr. decrease than consensus
I typically was at or forward of consensus for every of the highest 14 extensive receivers. The primary two extensive receivers I had that had been notably decrease than consensus had been Samuel and Pittman. They’d ADPs within the late third spherical, the place I had each as fourth-round picks.
Each gamers have skilled accidents this season, seemingly impacting their progress. Nonetheless, there was additionally concern concerning the competitors for touches. The 49ers and Colts emphasize the run sport, making it tougher for them to achieve their goal totals than receivers in different high-powered offenses. Pittman ranks thirty fourth in targets, whereas Samuel ranks Fortieth.
Trusting gifted rookie extensive receivers on below-average offenses
Ten extensive receivers had been picked throughout the first 37 picks of the 2024 NFL Draft, giving fantasy managers loads of choices. Marvin Harrison Jr. was picked two spots forward of Malik Nabers, however the distinction in touchdown spot led Harrison to get picked almost three rounds forward of Nabers in fantasy drafts.
Brian Thomas Jr. was the fourth extensive receiver chosen within the NFL Draft. Nonetheless, he was chosen behind Xavier Worthy, Keon Coleman and Ladd McConkey in fantasy drafts due to their touchdown spots. I typically trusted Nabers’s and Thomas Jr.’s expertise and potential quantity, which led me to name Nabers a league winner and Thomas Jr. a breakout.
Whereas loads of rookies have performed effectively, Nabers and Thomas Jr. lead all rookie extensive receivers in targets, resulting in probably the most receptions and yards. Each gamers have far exceeded their ADP.
Rating Jaxon Smith-Njigba increased than consensus
There have been solely two extensive receivers with a top-100 ADP that I had ranked a minimum of a spherical and a half forward of consensus ADP: Rashee Rice and Smith-Njigba. The underside line of his participant profile was:
“For Smith-Njigba to constantly be in fantasy beginning lineups, two issues have to occur: he must play higher, and he must play extra in two-receiver units. If neither occurs, he ought to stay on fantasy benches until there’s an awesome matchup. If simply considered one of these elements happens, he shall be a worth at his present ADP of WR45. If each occur, he might turn out to be a top-20 extensive receiver.”
After that article was written, Smith-Njigba took restricted preseason snaps, which included enjoying in 12 personnel. Tyler Lockett wasn’t enjoying within the preseason, so his elevated enjoying time was no assure, however it elevated the percentages sufficient to maneuver Smith-Njigba up the rankings. Brian Thomas Jr. was the one extensive receiver drafted later than Smith-Njigba in fantasy drafts and ended up with a greater season.
Itemizing Christian Kirk as a participant to keep away from
Kirk was the one notable extensive receiver I had ranked two full rounds decrease than his consensus ADP. I had issues about his goal fee along with his utilization within the pink zone and two-receiver units.
He didn’t play in 12 personnel with the starters within the preseason in 2023. That performed out for one week, after which Zay Jones suffered an damage, resulting in extra enjoying time for Kirk. He didn’t play in 12 personnel once more this preseason, which performed out whereas he was wholesome. He performed in 24 out of a potential 120 snaps out of 12 personnel in his eight wholesome video games. This led to fewer routes per sport, targets, receptions and receiving yards.
In his nice fantasy season with the Jaguars, he scored eight touchdowns. The Jaguars had three different targets with reputations for scoring touchdowns, making it unlikely Kirk can be prioritized close to the objective line. Kirk acquired three of a potential 18 targets when the Jaguars had been inside 10 yards of scoring, main to at least one landing.
Kirk completed the season 57th in fantasy factors per sport. Amari Cooper was the one extensive receiver drafted forward of him with worse fantasy factors per sport this season.
Malachi Corley as a participant to keep away from
Usually, a rookie can show they’re excessive on the depth chart within the preseason, however it’s widespread sufficient for a rookie to start out low on their depth chart and work their method up. An exception was made for Corley. All through the preseason, he solely performed in 11 personnel. Usually, extensive receivers should be on an offense that runs a excessive fee of 11 personnel and has a excessive goal fee to be fantasy-relevant in that position.
Of their ultimate preseason sport, the Jets rested each starters and key backups. They rested all three different rookies the Jets drafted on offense, however Corley wanted to play in that sport. Whereas it’s OK to be a backup in the beginning of a rookie season, he was enjoying with gamers who largely didn’t make the roster. 9 of the 14 gamers who performed on the primary drive of the ultimate preseason sport had been both launched or placed on injured reserve earlier than Week 1, with backup lineman Max Mitchell as the one participant with important enjoying time this season. Corley’s being that far down the depth chart was a serious pink flag.
Whereas Corley was solely getting drafted in massive leagues or leagues with deep benches, Corley didn’t appear well worth the threat in these leagues.
What I Obtained Unsuitable
Rating Chris Olave increased than the consensus
Olave joined Davante Adams as the 2 extensive receivers I used to be highest on relative to consensus within the first two rounds. He completed because the WR16 in 2023, and I anticipated the brand new teaching workers to result in extra passing and Olave to proceed his ascension as a younger extensive receiver.
Olave had six video games the place he performed a minimum of 70% of the Saints’ offensive snaps and gained a minimum of 80 receiving yards in 4 of these six video games. He was held to 10 and 11 yards within the different two video games. In these video games, Rashid Shaheed carried out strongly. Whereas I used to be additionally excessive on Shaheed, I didn’t anticipate him getting in the way in which of Olave’s fantasy worth.
Olave suffered concussions very early in two different video games, which made his per-game stats look a lot worse than he performed. Ignoring these video games, he completed with 12.5 PPR factors per sport, which was nonetheless a step down from the final two seasons reasonably than a step up.
Calling Jaylen Waddle a league-winner
Waddle’s per-play stats, alongside together with his age, equally made Waddle appear like one of many league’s high extensive receivers with the potential to overhaul Tyreek Hill because the Dolphins’ high receiver sooner reasonably than later.
Waddle gained 109 receiving yards in Week 1. Tua Tagovailoa suffered a concussion in Week 2 and returned in Week 8. Since then, Waddle has proven up on the damage report because of a quadricep, hamstring and knee accidents. Whereas he’s flashed a few of his nice play in latest weeks, together with an eight catch, 144-yard efficiency in Week 12 and a 99-yard efficiency in Week 14, it’s total been a disappointing season.
Whereas a few of it was unhealthy damage luck to him and his quarterback, I used to be in all probability too dismissive of his accidents from final season. I used to be additionally not excessive sufficient on Jonnu Smith, which shall be lined within the tight finish part. Smith’s ascension has seemingly harm Waddle’s goal share.
Rating Diontae Johnson increased than the consensus
Johnson was the third extensive receiver I used to be a minimum of a spherical above consensus, becoming a member of Waddle and Rashee Rice. I assumed he might have a related season to 2022, the place he performed the Steelers’ X-receiver position and had one of many highest goal charges within the league. Johnson scored the Twentieth-most fantasy factors for a large receiver over the primary seven weeks. It got here from three nice video games blended with 4 quiet ones.
After that, the Panthers traded him to the Baltimore Ravens. He’s caught one move within the final two months. Groups hardly ever commerce away gamers in the identical calendar 12 months they traded for that participant, so this appeared reasonably unpredictable.
Itemizing Rome Odunze as a breakout
I typically adopted the technique of drafting gifted rookies. Whereas this labored with Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., it didn’t with Rome Odunze. The Chicago Bears receiver has put up wonderful numbers for a rookie, however they simply haven’t been sufficient to warrant the draft capital. I used to be wonderful with my course of right here, however I wished to incorporate Odunze right here for completeness.
Rating Jordan Addison decrease than the consensus
Whereas I used to be proper on the primary 4 extensive receivers I ranked a minimum of 10 spots decrease than ADP, I used to be not proper on Addison. In his participant profile, I acknowledged he could possibly be a top-20 extensive receiver if all the pieces goes proper, and thru 17 weeks, he was Twentieth in fantasy factors per sport.
The principle concern was at quarterback, the place Sam Darnold had a historical past of inaccurate passes and dumping off to different positions extra typically than different quarterbacks. Addison has the very best common depth of goal and deep goal fee on the staff, so this may probably influence Addison greater than different gamers. Darnold’s high quality of play has been one of many season’s largest surprises, which has vastly helped Addison.
There have been additionally some issues a couple of suspension. A courtroom look that was set for October seventh was delayed till December. Any potential suspension is not going to occur till 2025.
boldly predicting an enormous season for Brandin Cooks
Cooks improved because the 2023 season progressed. The Cowboys’ passing offense appeared primed for an enormous 12 months after not investing a lot at operating again. He scored a landing in Week 1 however then had three quiet video games, adopted by an damage that value him seven video games. As soon as he was again, Dak Prescott was out. There could possibly be one thing to dig into, both with Cooks’ decline or the Cowboys’ offense early within the season.
Brenden Rice probably being a part of the Chargers extensive receiver rotation
Rice was a seventh-round choose for the Los Angeles Chargers. Within the second preseason sport, he began forward of Quentin Johnston and D.J. Chark Jr. The three continued to rotate all through the primary half. I ended up transferring Rice up in my rankings, though not excessive sufficient to get drafted in most leagues.
Rice began the season as a wholesome inactive regardless of Chark being on injured reserve. Rice solely performed three offensive snaps in Week 7 and has been on injured reserve since Week 8. Whereas this wasn’t the most important miss, it’s all the time good to recollect some unusual issues can occur within the preseason.
Gray Space
Contemplating Puka Nacua a first-round choose
All through the offseason, Nacua was my favourite late first-round choose within the excellent draft technique articles. As his ADP fell, he turned the favourite choose to start out the second spherical. I didn’t really feel snug calling this a victory after he suffered an damage in Week 1 and didn’t return till Week 8. He’s averaged the fifth-most fantasy factors per sport, so for the second half of the season, he was value that choose.
The proportion of groups with Nacua who made the fantasy playoffs was roughly as anticipated for somebody picked at Nacua’s spot. Theoretically, it might have been increased had it not been for the damage. I notably had Nacua increased than Garrett Wilson, who had related advance charges. Wilson had extra complete fantasy factors, however Nacua has been higher per sport.
Contemplating Rashee Rice the participant to construct your fantasy draft round
I had Rice as a second-round choose when initially doing my 2024 rankings. Then Rice confronted authorized points that made it appear to be a suspension was potential. As we drew nearer to the season, it turned clearer {that a} suspension was not possible for 2024.
I ended up with Rice two rounds forward of ADP, the very best I used to be on any participant within the high 100. His per-play stats had been elite as a rookie, and by the top of the season, he was lastly seeing a full-time position within the Chiefs offense. I included him in my breakout article and my guys’ article. Rice was considered as such a worth that my excellent draft technique articles modified to make sure Rice can be drafted,
After Week 3, Rice had the second-most fantasy factors for a large receiver at 64.3 factors. He suffered a season-ending damage in Week 4. The thought course of and determination round Rice had been proper, however accidents occur in soccer. Sadly, it occurred to the participant I used to be highest on.
Together with Jayden Reed as a participant to keep away from
All through Reed’s profession, he has solely performed in three extensive receiver units. He ended the 2023 season on fireplace, however it was when the Packers had a number of accidents on offense. Inexperienced Bay invested within the run sport within the offseason and had well being at tight finish. So long as the Packers had been profitable, Reed wouldn’t be on the sphere very a lot. Usually, slot receivers have low common depths of targets, to allow them to a minimum of see a number of brief targets, giving them an honest flooring even when they solely play in 11 personnel. Reed had the second-highest common depth of goal of extensive receivers from the slot final season, making him much more unstable.
Reed had a minimum of 110 receiving yards in every of the Packers’ first three losses and averaged 37 receiving yards of their wins. Fortunately, he has seven touchdowns on the season, however he additionally has 5 video games with two or fewer receptions. Whereas I knew the large video games had been potential, I additionally knew it might be onerous to know once they had been coming, so there could possibly be weeks the place you sat him and he had an awesome sport or began him and he posted little or no.
I had Reed at WR44, with consensus at WR36. He’s averaged the Fortieth-most factors per sport.
Purpose to be involved concerning the Buffalo Payments‘ extensive receivers
The Payments traded away Stefon Diggs this offseason and let Gabe Davis, Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty all depart. They added Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in free company and Keon Coleman within the draft. The final considering was that Shakir and Samuel would constantly be on the sphere in three-receiver units, with Coleman in some type of rotation with Hollins, relying on how he developed as a rookie.
Throughout the first and second preseason video games, it turned clear that the plan was to have two taller receivers on the sphere in three-receiver units and solely considered one of Shakir or Samuel. This led me to be low on each Shakir and Samuel. Each had been ranked amongst extensive receivers within the 50s by consensus ADP, and I had them within the 60s.
This labored out effectively for not drafting Samuel however not for Shakir. Their cumulative worth wasn’t as excessive as anticipated, however Shakir ended up forward of Samuel on the depth chart, so I ended up being decrease on Shakir than I ought to have been. Shakir was the extensive receiver who was constantly adequate to be in fantasy lineups in leagues the place you begin three extensive receivers however not a league winner.
Different Preseason Notes
- The Texans’ preseason utilization made it clear Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs can be the first receivers in two-receiver units, whereas Tank Dell was utilized in three-receiver units. It additionally urged the next snap fee for Collins than final 12 months. These all ended up being true, however not all that stunning.
- Xavier Worthy was a transparent starter instantly, which has been true all season. Even now, he constantly sees extra enjoying time than the opposite extensive receivers of the Chiefs.
- The Patriots’ extensive receiver rotation appeared unsettled all through the preseason. The exception was Demario Douglas, who was the slot receiver in three-receiver units solely all through the preseason. That was how Douglas was utilized all through the season whereas the 2 exterior spots remained unsettled.
- Throughout coaching camp, there was hypothesis that Cedric Tillman might begin forward of Elijah Moore. They each performed within the ultimate preseason sport, and their utilization urged Moore can be forward of Tillman, which was true. Nonetheless, it additionally urged that Moore would play extra on the skin, leaving the slot position to Jerry Jeudy. Throughout the season, Moore has performed extra within the slot than Jeudy.
- There appeared to be some indicators Adonai Mitchell might see notable enjoying time even when the entire Colts’ extensive receivers had been wholesome. Mitchell has performed effectively on a per-play foundation this season, however Alec Pierce having some massive video games early within the season slowed Mitchell’s momentum.
- One of many greater tales within the first two weeks of the preseason when it comes to utilization was Jahan Dotson’s enjoying within the slot for the Washington Commanders. Nonetheless, that went nowhere as a result of Dotson was traded to the Philadelphia Eagles.
What I Obtained Proper
The significance of choosing a top-12 tight finish
I’ve harassed the significance of choosing a top-12 tight finish for the previous two seasons. I had the highest 12 tight ends three or 4 spots increased than ADP on common. Tight finish is the one place the place a participant’s expertise is most intently correlated to their fantasy worth, making them considerably simpler to foretell. 9 of the highest 12 gamers by ADP are within the high 12 when it comes to fantasy factors per sport. In distinction, that was true for seven quarterbacks, seven operating backs and 7 extensive receivers.
This implies it was simpler to attend at different positions and nonetheless discover worth later within the draft than at tight finish.
Itemizing Trey McBride as a league winner
There was a transparent high 4 tight ends based mostly on ADP, Travis Kelce, Sam LaPorta, Mark Andrews and Trey McBride. All 4 are within the high 10 in fantasy factors per sport, however McBride is the one one who has matched and exceeded expectations.
McBride’s important concern was the Marvin Harrison Jr. addition and the way that would influence McBride’s goal fee. There have been a number of examples of tight ends being elite fantasy producers regardless of having an awesome extensive receiver on the staff, so McBride was the tight finish I used to be highest on relative to ADP amongst these 4. Harrison hasn’t performed in addition to anticipated, which has probably helped McBride, however his low landing fee has harm his fantasy manufacturing.
Extra fantasy groups with McBride made the playoffs in comparison with the opposite three tight ends.
Rating Evan Engram decrease than consensus
Whereas there may be typically a excessive correlation between PFF receiving grade and fantasy manufacturing for tight ends, Engram has been an exception. Due to that, I’ve typically been low on Engram. In 2023, he performed like typical many of the 12 months and had distinctive manufacturing solely as soon as Christian Kirk went down because of damage.
The Jaguars have performed their starters greater than most groups within the preseason, and Evan Engram performed notably fewer snaps than typical. He performed 67% of snaps within the second preseason sport and 65% within the third. He was often round 79% of his staff’s offensive snaps in 2023. This season, he performed 68%, 61% and 56% of snaps in his first three video games, probably because of damage. As soon as Christian Kirk was injured, Engram returned to over 80% of snaps. He was right down to 71-75% in his final three wholesome video games. These modifications solely had a refined impact on his routes run.
A mix of barely fewer routes, an damage, and the Jaguars’ offense merely not enjoying in addition to prior to now led to Engram averaging fewer fantasy factors per sport than in different latest seasons.
Rankings Brock Bowers increased than consensus
I had Bowers 9 spots increased than consensus, inserting him forward of David Njoku in my rankings. Sadly, I usually did not advocate to draft Bowers as a result of I advocated choosing a good finish early. My concern was that should you focused Bowers and missed, your choices turned way more restricted. Dallas Goedert was an possibility, however after that, Dalton Schultz, T.J. Hockenson, Luke Musgrave and Isaiah Seemingly had been the subsequent gamers based mostly on ADP. In some leagues, when Bowers fell, I drafted him as a second tight finish possibility.
PFF liked Bowers’ expertise. In one preseason drive, he lined up everywhere in the area, which was encouraging. The priority was the quarterback state of affairs and competitors for targets and snaps with Davante Adams and Michael Mayer. Two of Bowers’ worst three video games occurred early within the season when Adams was nonetheless on the staff.
Rating Dalton Schultz decrease than the consensus
Schultz was the tight finish I used to be lowest on in comparison with ADP amongst gamers with a high 160 ADP. There have been issues concerning the extensive receivers being more healthy this 12 months, the Stefon Diggs addition, a much bigger deal with the run sport with Joe Mixon and extra competitors for snaps within the tight finish room.
Most of these issues didn’t maintain. All three high extensive receivers have missed important time this 12 months, and the Texans have a number of backup tight ends on injured reserve, leaving Schultz with a excessive snap fee. The upper run fee with Mixon is the one concern that has held. That’s been sufficient for Schultz to fall to twenty fifth in fantasy factors per sport, the worst amongst all tight ends with a high 160 ADP.
Rating Cade Otton increased than the consensus
ADP ranked Otton because the Twenty sixth-best tight finish possibility, however I ranked him at TE18. My logic was that he was a younger tight finish with assured enjoying time, so there was an opportunity he might enhance, see the next goal share and be a fantasy starter. I most well-liked that to among the older tight ends we knew had restricted ceilings or had been in rotation.
That ended up enjoying out, and he averaged the Eleventh-most fantasy factors for tight ends this season.
Contemplating Cole Kmet undraftable
Kmet was thought-about one of many high tight finish sleepers, ending with a TE16 ADP. I had him considerably decrease, together with him within the 5 gamers to keep away from and an aggressive, daring prediction. The preliminary concern was that including Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen would create an excessive amount of competitors for targets.
Then, within the preseason, the Bears used an identical rotation to that of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron’s previous stints with the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks. It concerned one every-down tight finish and one passing-down tight finish. Gerald Everett typically took the passing-down position. The Bears signed Everett in free company, and the preseason utilization urged that Everett could possibly be forward within the rotation.
This performed out within the first regular-season sport. Everett began, performed 34 snaps and ran 21 routes, whereas Kmet performed 27 snaps, ran 12 routes and caught one move for 4 yards.
Kmet returned to the beginning lineup by Week 2, and his enjoying time ultimately returned to regular, however Kmet was hardly ever a precedence within the offense. Since Week 8, he’s been held to 14 or fewer receiving yards in seven of 10 video games. Whereas he’s had a number of splash weeks, it’s unattainable to know once they would occur, so he wasn’t serving to fantasy beginning lineups.
He’s presently twenty fourth in fantasy factors per sport. Whereas that wasn’t precisely thirtieth or worse, he wasn’t somebody value rostering in fantasy leagues this season.
What I Obtained Unsuitable
Drafting Sam LaPorta as an early third-round choose
LaPorta’s ADP was late within the third spherical, however he and McBride had been the 2 I advocated choosing forward of their ADP early. After his record-breaking rookie season, I assumed we might see extra of the identical.
There hasn’t been a notable dropoff in his receiving grade. The primary downside is he’s run noticeably fewer routes. The Lions dominate most of their video games, main them to stay with the run sport and never have to move the ball. His enjoying time has been related, however his routes per sport have decreased by round 10%.
Past that, his targets per route have additionally decreased. Jameson Williams and David Montgomery have skilled substantial will increase in targets this season relative to final. Whereas there’s a probability one thing was up particularly with LaPorta, which could possibly be seemed into, the state of affairs might need been sufficient to maintain LaPorta out of the highest 5 tight ends this season.
Calling Dalton Kincaid a league winner and Kyle Pitts and Jake Ferguson as breakouts
Tight ends have been my worst place to predict precisely this season, and this is because of lacking these three younger tight ends early within the season. I typically thought all three had proven some promise within the NFL, and sufficient modified within the offseason to counsel they may play even higher this 12 months. The articles went into extra specifics about what I favored about them.
All three completed exterior of the highest 18 in fantasy factors per sport. Whereas it appears comparatively secure to say Brock Bowers, Trey McBride and George Kittle would be the three highest-ranked tight ends heading into subsequent season, I’ll be spending a number of time digging into what occurred to the younger tight ends this season earlier than being assured on my rankings for TE4 and past, in addition to the perfect methods to take when choosing tight ends subsequent season.
Rating David Njoku decrease than consensus
Whereas I used to be increased than ADP for eight of the highest 12 tight ends, Evan Engram and Njoku had been the 2 I used to be noticeably decrease on. For Njoku, it was his goal share splits with and with out Deshaun Watson in each 2022 and 2023, the place he was thrown at a lot much less when Watson was at quarterback.
He was higher with Watson this season than in previous seasons. His targets per route was as much as 23.8%, and he averaged 10.6 PPR factors per sport with Watson. His goal fee with out Watson was roughly the identical, however his fantasy factors per sport had been significantly better with out Watson at 15.1. He was injured for 3 video games early within the season, so there wasn’t a lot overlap when he and Watson had been wholesome. This could nonetheless have been a slight miss for me had Watson been the quarterback the entire season. Being low on Njoku was much more of a miss with different quarterbacks.
Rating Jonnu Smith decrease than consensus
Smith was TE24 by ADP and I had him at TE31. Both method, he wasn’t getting drafted in most leagues, however the reasoning is value discussing. The Dolphins used their high three tight ends for half of the second preseason sport. Smith was enjoying solely in three-receiver units. Tight ends in that position are usually very inconsistent from a fantasy perspective because of their lack of enjoying time.
Enjoying time was an enormous downside for Smith early within the season. He performed lower than 50% of the offensive snaps within the Dolphins’ first six video games. He was held to 18 yards or fewer within the first 4 video games. At that time of the season, he was TE31. He put collectively massive video games in Weeks 5 and seven, resulting in a rise in snaps by Week 8. Whereas he didn’t do a lot from Weeks 8-10, he turned an elite tight finish by Week 11, which led to a different improve in snaps. He’s been the highest fantasy tight finish over the past seven weeks.
Smith has the fourth-highest PFF receiving grade this season at 85.2 behind Kittle, Bowers and McBride. His earlier excessive was 79.3 in 2019. His grade in 2023 was 63.5, which was his lowest since 2018. On one hand, I can’t blame myself an excessive amount of for a good finish having an eighth-year breakout that I didn’t see coming. Then again, there could possibly be some purpose why he discovered success with the Tennessee Titans and Dolphins however not as a lot with the New England Patriots or Atlanta Falcons.
Gray Space
Itemizing Taysom Hill as considered one of my guys and a sleeper
I began fantasy draft season out on Hill, considering a brand new offensive coordinator wouldn’t use Hill the identical method Sean Payton and Pete Carmichael did, particularly at 34 years outdated. Nonetheless, discuss in coaching camp blended with preseason utilization led to the thought Hill could possibly be used much more this 12 months. Hill is a dangerous participant to start out like every other tight finish exterior of the highest 10. Nonetheless, Hill has the upside for a number of touchdowns, which most tight ends don’t have. This made Hill extra invaluable than most beginning tight ends within the league, main me to rank Hill twelfth whereas ADP had him twenty first. I had Hill 91 spots increased than ADP, which was probably the most for a participant with a high 250 ADP.
Hill completed fifth in fantasy factors per sport at 12.9 and second in customary leagues. Hill had three video games as a top-five fantasy tight finish and 5 video games the place he didn’t do a lot. It’s onerous to contemplate him a hit when he missed seven video games. The Saints have handled a number of accidents this season, and it’s onerous to inform how a lot these accidents impacted Hill’s utilization.
Rating Pat Freiermuth decrease than the consensus
Freiermuth wasn’t drafted to be a fantasy starter this season. The Arthur Smith addition was regarding for the tight finish room. Smith utilized a rotation of tight ends with each the Tennessee Titans and Atlanta Falcons, which made it very onerous to belief their tight ends. They’d gifted gamers, however they had been very hit-and-miss. The Steelers used starters of their first and third preseason sport, suggesting Freiermuth may not see a lot enjoying time in two tight finish units.
This was true in some weeks, however their run-blocking tight finish, MyCole Pruitt, has missed a number of video games because of damage, permitting Freiermuth to see extra enjoying time in these video games. Freirmuth has caught a minimum of two passes each sport, and that flooring has helped his fantasy totals this season. He’s caught a number of touchdowns, which have additionally helped, however he hasn’t had a sport with greater than 70 yards.
The Steelers offense has performed higher than I anticipated, so Freiermuth has ended up with extra fantasy factors this season than I anticipated, however that also hasn’t been sufficient for Freiermuth to stay as much as his ADP.
What I Obtained Proper
Contemplating Josh Allen a league-winner
By consensus, Allen was the general QB1, however I used to be an enormous advocate for taking one of many high few quarterbacks, led by Allen. It was sufficient to listing Allen as considered one of my guys. The reasoning was that the highest few quarterbacks had been particular based mostly on their passing and dashing, and it might be very tough for different quarterbacks to match them in fantasy factors per sport.
Whereas Lamar Jackson has outscored him, anybody who drafted Allen wouldn’t be disillusioned by his 24.1 fantasy factors per sport.
Drafting a quarterback within the high 4 rounds
Whereas Allen was my man, I additionally constantly advocated for Jalen Hurts within the center/late elements of the third spherical and Jackson on the finish of the third or begin of the fourth. Those that drafted Allen, Hurts or Jackson had the highest charges of creating the fantasy playoffs for a second straight season.
Most groups who didn’t draft a quarterback that early had been caught altering quarterbacks from one week to the subsequent until you drafted Joe Burrow or Jayden Daniels. C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson and Dak Prescott had been all quarterbacks throughout the high 70 of ADP, and so they all completed exterior the highest half of quarterbacks in fantasy factors per sport.
Boldly predicting Jayden Daniels would common a minimum of 21 fantasy factors per sport
I additionally included Daniels amongst my breakout quarterbacks. He was the one quarterback among the many high 15 that I had ranked a spherical higher than the consensus. Every thing about Daniels urged he would run the ball at a fee just like different elite fantasy choices. His 144 dashing makes an attempt and 864 dashing yards ranked second and first amongst quarterbacks, respectively. Fortunately, his passing has additionally exceeded expectations.
Sadly, I didn’t advocate for drafting Daniels sufficient. As a result of I believed strongly within the elite quarterback choices, I solely sometimes urged choosing Daniels as a second possibility. The priority with ready for Daniels is that if another person sniped him, there can be no different choices to fall again on.
Daniels averaged 22.5 fantasy factors per sport over the primary 17 weeks, so the daring prediction has come true.
Rating Anthony Richardson, Kyler Murray and Jordan Love decrease than the consensus
I ranked all three quarterbacks a bit of greater than a spherical decrease than consensus, and so they didn’t stay as much as their ADP. I had Joe Burrow ranked increased than Richardson and Daniels forward of Murray and Love, whereas ADP had these reversed.
Plenty of this needed to do with Daniels greater than these quarterbacks. Particularly, Richardson and Daniels had been favored for his or her dashing capability. Washington had arguably higher weapons, and Daniels confirmed extra dashing potential in faculty. This led me to rank choosing Richardson because the worst technique for choosing quarterbacks this 12 months since you might simply get Daniels a number of rounds later.
Itemizing Sam Darnold as a sleeper
Darnold was QB30 by ADP, however I had him ranked twenty first. I favored Darnold for the quarterback-friendly offense in Minnesota, which included operating extra performs than common, passing extra typically in comparison with expectations, and the good receivers the Vikings have. His state of affairs was so significantly better than that of different quarterbacks that drafting Darnold forward of these quarterbacks was value drafting. Darnold exceeded my and everybody else’s expectations for simply how good he’s been as a passer, however all the pieces concerning the offense and his receivers has helped.
What I Obtained Unsuitable
Itemizing Trevor Lawrence as a breakout
Whereas I didn’t typically advocate taking a second quarterback after drafting one of many elite choices, Lawrence was the one participant I’d take into account. Lawrence completed enjoying like a fantasy starter final season, and Jacksonville upgraded on the exterior receiver spots.
Lawrence averaged 16.8 fantasy factors over the primary 9 weeks, which ranked sixteenth greatest amongst quarterbacks. He had a sluggish begin to the season like typical, however from Weeks 4-9, he was the eighth-best fantasy quarterback. He performed round his ADP, however accidents value him the remainder of the season.
Lacking right here had extra to do with unhealthy damage luck and an unsurprisingly unhealthy begin. I consider he would have been nearer to a success if he didn’t endure the second-half accidents.
Rating Jared Goff decrease than consensus
I had Goff 11 spots decrease than the consensus ADP. I had him at QB16 whereas ADP had him at QB15. I had Lawrence forward of Goff. I had most quarterbacks from QB9 to QB18 decrease than consensus due to how a lot I valued choosing a quarterback early. Most quarterbacks completed proper round ADP or a bit of worse, however Goff was the exception exterior Jayden Daniels.
Goff completed exterior the highest 12 in fantasy factors per sport every of the final 5 seasons. The Lions run-first offense made it unlikely he’d be a top-five possibility. Goff has been very environment friendly this season, with a career-high 9.1 yards per try and a career-high landing fee of seven% of his passes. Each of these marks are second-best to Lamar Jackson this season. Goff is presently at seventh in factors per sport, and that’s seemingly the place he’ll max out, as he received’t have the passing quantity or dashing quantity of the highest quarterback choices.
Rating Bo Nix decrease than the consensus
I had Nix close to the underside of the fantasy quarterback rankings this 12 months. One massive purpose was his passing weapons. In June, we ranked the Broncos third-to-last within the receiving corps, and that was earlier than the staff moved on from Tim Patrick, Samaje Perine, and ultimately Josh Reynolds.
Nix has completed within the high 10 in dashing yards and dashing touchdowns for a quarterback, which has been an enormous assist. He additionally ranks within the high 10 in passing touchdowns. The Broncos’ normal success this season is value investigating this offseason.
