Welcome to PFF’s betting market replace for Week 2 of the bowl season.
This text will clarify the components that drive line actions in betting markets, serving to you assess whether or not a change is an overreaction or underreaction to those market influences.
If you happen to aren’t acquainted, click on right here for a deeper clarification of what we intention to attain every week with our NFL model of this text. For the Spherical 1 CFP model, click on right here.
Market dynamics are vastly totally different in bowl video games and largely pushed by switch portal entries, participant opt-outs, and training adjustments. It’s widespread to see excessive swings in spreads and totals main as much as and even on gameday as shock opt-outs are introduced. One strategy to achieve an edge in bowl season is handicapping groups’ motivation, which is extra of an artwork than a science.
An fascinating wrinkle to bear in mind is that gamers who’ve entered the portal can nonetheless play in bowl video games. This pattern might grow to be extra widespread with latest developments of NIL and revenue-sharing.
COASTAL CAROLINA VS UTSA
Myrtle Seaside Bowl
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | UTSA -7 | UTSA -10 |
| Complete | 57 | 55.5 |
Unfold: With each QBs for coastal opting out, this line shortly moved out to UTSA -9.5 earlier than a decide launch pushed it previous 10 and to as excessive as 12 earlier than we noticed some resistance. Coastal will begin a freshman at QB Tad Hudson, who will see his first recreation motion. There are nonetheless some 10.5s out there, however the market consensus at 10.
Complete: The primary transfer on the entire was a transfer as much as 58.5 earlier than a constant slide right down to 55.5. We have now seen a couple of books return to 56. I don’t foresee this complete dropping a lot additional.
Present Portal Gamers (min 100 snaps):
NORTHERN ILLINOIS VS. FRESNO STATE
Well-known Idaho Potato Bowl
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | NIL -2 | NIL -3 |
| Complete | 42 | 39.5 |
Unfold: There are loads of significant gamers lacking on either side of the ball, together with the beginning QBs for every staff. That has just about canceled one another out available in the market, as the one transfer we’ve seen is to the important thing variety of 3. You may nonetheless discover 2.5s available in the market.
Complete: The entire has reacted to the standard of gamers lacking on this matchup, driving the entire down from 42 to 39.5. We’ve but to see it go any decrease than that, however there are nonetheless loads of books with 40 and even some with 40.5.
Present Portal Gamers (min 100 snaps):
SOUTH FLORIDA VS. SAN JOSE STATE
Hawai’i Bowl
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | SJS -1 | SJS -3.5 |
| Complete | 61.5 | 61 |
Unfold: There may be fairly a little bit of motion on the unfold right here. San Jose State shortly reached -3.5 earlier than a decide launch helped take that to as excessive as 6. Since then, it’s been a gradual drop again down to three.5s throughout the board with information that star WR Nick Nash will likely be opting out to organize for the NFL Draft.
Complete: Complete has stayed comparatively flat, bouncing between 60 and 61.5.
Purchase/Promote: I’ll fade the transfer on San Jose State and lock in USF +3.5. That is an excessive amount of motion with the Bulls not having key ability gamers decide out.
Present Portal Gamers (min 100 snaps):
PITTSBURGH VS. TOLEDO
GameAbove Sports activities Bowl
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | PIT -9.5 | PIT -7 |
| Complete | 51 | 51 |
Unfold: Uncertainty across the QB place for the Panthers has helped take this line right down to solely a landing. There are a few books which have dipped under that quantity to six.5.
Complete: Complete hasn’t budged a lot in any respect off of 51.
Present Portal Gamers (min 100 snaps):
RUTGERS VS. KANSAS STATE
Charge Bowl
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | Okay State -7 | Okay State -6.5 |
| Complete | 50.5 | 50.5 |
Unfold: Whereas most books are nonetheless on the opening variety of 7, we’ve seen some market-leading books transfer to six.5. The board is at the moment break up between these two numbers.
Complete: Nothing on the entire. As you may see under, there wasn’t a ton of motion for these groups within the portal both.
Present Portal Gamers (min 100 snaps):
ARKANSAS STATE VS. BOWLING GREEN
68 Ventures Bowl
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | BGN -6.5 | BGN -7.5 |
| Complete | 51 | 51 |
Unfold: Fueled by reviews that Bowling Inexperienced will see most of their starters play, this line crossed to the opposite facet of seven to 7.5. There are nonetheless loads of books at 7 and even one at a fairly priced -6.5 -120.
Complete: The entire stays on the opening variety of 51. If something, some momentum is pushing this complete down as a few books have moved to 50.5.
Purchase/Promote: I’ll cherry-pick the final remaining 6.5 -120 at FanDuel, though factoring in line worth, it’s basically the identical as taking a -7 at a lowered juice of -105.
Present Portal Gamers (min 100 snaps):
OKLAHOMA VS. NAVY
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | OKLA -10 | OKLA -4.5 |
| Complete | 45 | 43.5 |
Unfold: As you may see under, Oklahoma receives the switch portal affect for this bowl recreation. That affect initially moved this quantity right down to 7 earlier than a decide launch pushed this down even additional to the place it now sits at -4.5. Motivation additionally comes into play right here, particularly in opposition to a service academy offense.
Complete: A sluggish however regular lower, the entire now sits at 43.5 throughout the board. We’ve but to see it dip a lot additional than that and have seen some buyback on the over at 43.5.
Purchase/Promote: I’ll fade this massive line transfer and lock in Oklahoma -4.5. The protection has been their bread and butter this yr, and whereas it’s a novel offense they’ll want to organize for, they’ll be up for it.
Present Portal Gamers (min 100 snaps):
GEORGIA TECH VS. VANDERBILT
Birmingham Bowl
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | GT -2.5 | GT -3 |
| Complete | 51 | 51 |
Unfold: Georgia Tech obtained a bump available in the market to -3 on the information that beginning QB Haynes King will play. There are many -2.5s nonetheless on the market. Diego Pavia additionally appears poised to play for Vandy, and he is off the heels of his courtroom win that at the moment grants him an additional yr of eligibility.
Complete: This has bounced forwards and backwards between 50 and 51, however hasn’t eclipsed both of these numbers.
Present Portal Gamers (min 100 snaps):
TEXAS TECH VS. ARKANSAS
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | ARK -1.5 | ARK -2 |
| Complete | 60 | 55 |
Unfold: This unfold has been like a pendulum swing, with Arkansas opening as a small favourite, to Texas Tech being favored by as a lot as a subject purpose. That has since swung totally again within the different course, with Arkansas being a fair greater favourite than we noticed within the opener. The preliminary transfer was tied to participant motion, however coach motion, notably each Texas Tech coordinators, has performed a job as of late. I doubt we see this attain Arkansas -3.
Complete: The primary transfer right here was a bounce on the entire to 62, however since then, it’s been one-way motion, shifting this complete down by a considerable margin. We noticed it get as little as 53 earlier than a transfer again to 55—nonetheless some 54.5s on the board.
Present Portal Gamers (min 100 snaps):
SYRACUSE VS. WASHINGTON STATE
DirecTV Vacation Bowl
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | SYR -6.5 | SYR -14 |
| Complete | 60 | 59 |
Unfold: Syracuse HC Fran Brown made his emotions recognized on how he views bowl video games. As evidenced by the 7.5-point transfer making Syracuse a two-touchdown favourite, his program will take them critically. That is coupled with Washington State shedding key gamers, together with QB John Mateer, and practically the complete teaching workers after HC Jake Dikert took the Wake Forest job. Some books have taken this to 14.5.
Complete: The response to the entire hasn’t been as stark, as we’ve solely seen a internet 1 level transfer right down to 59. Nonetheless, this complete reached 62 earlier than a number of the most up-to-date participant and coach information got here to gentle.
Present Portal Gamers (min 100 snaps):
TEXAS A&M VS. USC
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | TX AM -2 | TX AM -3 |
| Complete | 52 | 52 |
Unfold: With Texas A&M seeing much less of an affect by way of portal entries and opt-outs, it is sensible to see this line transfer to three. That line has continued to three.5 in some spots, however with these strikes, we noticed some assist for USC.
Complete: Not a lot motion right here. Opened at 52, and that’s the place the market consensus stays. Nonetheless, some books have taken this to 51.5.
Present Portal Gamers (min 100 snaps):
