There’s one last hurdle on the street to Tremendous Bowl 59.
The convention championships are right here, promising high-stakes drama and unforgettable matchups. Whether or not it’s star quarterbacks squaring off, underdog groups aiming to drag off beautiful upsets, or key betting angles to uncover, we’ve obtained all the pieces you must know heading into the motion.
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Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6) [Total: 47.5]
Storyline of the Sport: This NFC East rubber match performs out on the convention’s greatest stage
The primary assembly between these two franchises in Week 11 happened at The Linc, the place the Eagles overcame a 10-6 deficit heading into the fourth quarter to safe the win. Saquon Barkley delivered a heroic last body, speeding six occasions for 76 yards and two touchdowns to seal the victory.
The Commanders flipped the script when the sequence shifted to Washington in Week 16. Regardless of falling behind 14-0 early, they mounted a dramatic comeback behind Jayden Daniels. The rookie quarterback threw for 139 yards and three touchdowns within the fourth quarter, together with the game-winning rating with beneath 10 seconds remaining, in a wild sport that featured six turnovers by Washington.
That Week 16 matchup, nonetheless, got here with a major caveat: Jalen Hurts was knocked out within the first quarter, forcing Kenny Pickett to step in. This raises the query of whether or not the Commanders can replicate their success in opposition to a totally wholesome Eagles squad and safe one other postseason win in a hostile setting.
These two storied franchises haven’t crossed paths within the playoffs since 1991, but when their 2024 matchups are any indication, this last showdown between bitter NFC East rivals guarantees to be essentially the most intense but.
Matchups to Watch: Commanders QB Jayden Daniels vs. Eagles LB Zack Baun
Jayden Daniels, the frontrunner for Offensive Rookie of the Yr, has delivered a historic 2024 marketing campaign, incomes a 90.5 general grade — the second-highest ever by a rookie quarterback within the PFF period (since 2006). Daniels has continued to shine within the playoffs, main all passers within the divisional spherical with an 83.6 passing grade in opposition to the Lions.
Defensively, the Eagles are anchored by Zack Baun, the NFL’s highest-graded linebacker (90.2) in 2024. Baun’s elite protection instincts and anticipation earned him a league-best 91.4 protection grade, with 5 pressured turnovers in protection this season. That included a vital screen-turned-fumble the final time these groups clashed in Week 16.
Betting tendencies
A late Rams landing within the divisional spherical snatched a 7-point cowl from the Eagles, dropping their ATS document at residence this season to 5-5. Nevertheless, Philadelphia has hosted six of their final eight video games since December, protecting in 4 of these contests (4-2 ATS).
Profitable outright because the canine in every of their playoff matchups marks Washington’s fourth straight-up win because the street canine this season and a 66.7% cowl charge, tying them for the league lead in each. With a 5-2-1 ATS document when gifted factors this season, PFF’s betting mannequin reveals a 1.2% PFF edge leaning in direction of the Commanders at +6.
Finest Wager: RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles — over 24.5 carries (-125)
The ever-dynamic Saquon Barkley made headlines this week as DraftKings opened his speeding yardage line at an eye-popping 130.5 yards—the best whole ever posted by the sportsbook. Whereas that quantity could appear lofty, it’s nicely inside attain for Barkley, who has racked up 296 speeding yards in opposition to Washington this season. Nevertheless, concentrating on his quantity could current a safer angle.
Barkley has surpassed this speeding makes an attempt line in each sport in opposition to the Commanders this season, in addition to in every of his final 4 outings, accumulating over 110 carries throughout that stretch. Philly’s dedication to the bottom sport has been central to their success, as they stand as the one group within the NFL with a run play share exceeding 50% this yr.
Further Information
Eagles Harm Replace: Heart Cam Jurgens (again) returned to follow in restricted style on Friday however stays questionable for the NFC Championship.
Commanders Harm Report: Defensive lineman Daron Payne (knee/finger) is listed as questionable, whereas guard Sam Cosmi (knee) has been dominated out.
Award Honors: Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels has been named the PFWA Rookie of the Yr. Eagles operating again Saquon Barkley earned PFWA Offensive Participant of the Yr honors.
AP NFL Award Finalists: Commanders nominees embrace quarterback Jayden Daniels (Offensive Rookie of the Yr) and head coach Dan Quinn (Coach of the Yr). Eagles nominees embrace operating again Saquon Barkley (Most Precious Participant & Offensive Participant of the Yr), linebacker Zack Baun (Defensive Participant of the Yr), cornerbacks Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell (Defensive Rookie of the Yr) and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio (Assistant Coach of the Yr).
NFC Championship Ceremony: Former Eagles quarterback Nick Foles will function the honorary captain for the NFC Championship Sport.
BUFFALO BILLS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-2) [Total: 48.5]
Storyline of the Sport: Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen
The ninth assembly between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen is about so as to add one other thrilling chapter to their storied rivalry. The 2 quarterbacks maintain a 4-4 document in head-to-head matchups, although Allen’s success has primarily come within the common season. The postseason, nonetheless, tells a special story, with Mahomes and the Chiefs holding a 3-0 benefit, together with a victory within the 2020 AFC Championship sport.
Regardless of the playoff disparity, Allen has had his moments on this rivalry, notably at Arrowhead Stadium. He has gained three of his 5 profession video games in Kansas Metropolis, posting a formidable 90.3 general grade in these matchups.
Buffalo enters this matchup looking for redemption after final season’s heartbreaking three-point loss within the divisional spherical. If their efficiency in Week 11 in opposition to the Chiefs at Arrowhead is any indication, the Payments seem prepared for the problem. In that sport, Josh Allen delivered a masterful efficiency, recording 5 big-time throws with zero turnover-worthy performs, incomes a formidable 83.7 PFF passing grade.
Matchups to Watch: QB Patrick Mahomes vs. The Payments’ secondary
Mahomes has constructed his legacy on postseason excellence, producing a few of the most outstanding metrics in NFL historical past when the stakes are highest. His 90.5 playoff passing grade is the most effective within the PFF period (since 2006), fueled by 33 big-time throws and a minuscule 1.8% turnover-worthy play charge on 300-plus playoff dropbacks — the bottom amongst certified quarterbacks.
Within the divisional spherical, Mahomes showcased his signature brilliance with three Large Time Throws, setting the tone for one more deep playoff push. This week, he faces Buffalo’s two-high shell, a glance the Payments deployed on the fourth-highest charge within the league this season. It’s a problem Mahomes is well-equipped for, rating because the NFL’s eighth-highest graded passer in opposition to two-high protection.
The Payments’ struggles in protection this season (thirty first in group protection grade at 38.9) might show expensive in opposition to a seasoned playoff performer like Patrick Mahomes. These considerations are solely heightened by accidents within the secondary, with Taylor Rapp already dominated out and Christian Benford nonetheless in concussion protocol as of Saturday. In opposition to Mahomes, who thrives in exploiting defensive weaknesses, Buffalo’s undermanned secondary could face a steep uphill battle.
Travis Kelce: PFF grades and stats since 2014
Betting tendencies
Regardless of coming into the postseason with only a 3-7 ATS document, Josh Allen and the Payments have lined each their playoff matchups coming into the AFC Championship. Within the divisional spherical, Allen overcame his 0-3 ATS mark as a postseason underdog, knocking off Baltimore as 1.5-point canines.
After protecting as 2.5-point favorites at residence in Buffalo in the course of the common season, the Payments will look to repeat that success in Kansas Metropolis, the place Allen holds a optimistic 3-2 ATS document all-time versus Mahomes at Arrowhead. Nevertheless, none of these covers have come within the postseason regardless of being gifted factors twice.
Conversely, Mahomes and the Chiefs have clearly owned this rivalry within the postseason, with an unblemished 3-0 ATS mark. Nevertheless, 2024 hasn’t handled them nicely in betting markets when enjoying at residence. At Arrowhead this season, Kansas Metropolis has gone only a 4-5 ATS, together with their failed cowl within the divisional spherical. However that would nonetheless current a problem for a Payments group that holds only a 1-3 ATS mark as street canines this season.
Finest wager: WR Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Payments — over 5.5 receptions
In accordance with PFF’s Key Insights, Khalil Shakir is about up for achievement in a positive matchup in opposition to the Chiefs secondary. Shakir ranks seventeenth amongst extensive receivers in goal charge on pressured passing performs, which bodes nicely in opposition to a Chiefs protection producing the eighth-highest strain charge within the NFL.
Shakir has been a dependable possibility for the Payments this postseason, exceeding this reception line in each playoff video games. With a league-high 43% of the Chiefs’ allowed receptions going to fit receivers, Shakir ought to discover loads of alternatives, particularly after recording 9 catches of their Week 11 matchup.
Further Information
Payments Award Finalists: A number of Payments have been acknowledged as finalists for AP NFL awards, together with quarterback Josh Allen for Most Precious Participant, security Damar Hamlin for Comeback Participant of the Yr, and offensive coordinator Joe Brady for Assistant Coach of the Yr.
Chiefs Recognition: Kansas Metropolis head coach Andy Reid has been named a finalist for the AP Coach of the Yr award.
Fundraiser for Mark Andrews’ Charity: In a show of sportsmanship, Payments followers raised over $100,000 for Breakthrough T1D, a diabetes care non-profit supported by Ravens tight finish Mark Andrews, after Baltimore’s heartbreaking divisional-round loss.
Payments Harm Updates: Cornerback Christian Benford (concussion/private) was absent from follow on Friday however is predicted to return to the group over the weekend. Security Taylor Rapp (again/hip) has been dominated out.
