• Can the Steelers’ display screen sport work in Philadelphia? Pittsburgh has been a superb display screen offense all 12 months, however the Eagles have largely neutralized the idea.
• Will C.J. Stroud get again to deep passing success in opposition to the Dolphins? Stroud ranks twenty first in deep passing grade however faces a Miami protection that has struggled on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full entry to all our in-season fantasy instruments, together with weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Begin-Sit Optimizer and extra. Enroll now!
Estimated Studying Time: 8 minutes
Whereas the end result of each soccer sport is influenced by the 22 gamers on every workforce’s facet, the area of interest, micro-level battles add an additional layer of nuance. That features gamers or models battling head-to-head, and even defensive coaches attempting to out-scheme the opposing quarterback.
Week 14’s deal with Sam Darnold in opposition to the Falcons’ 3-seam protection (91.9 PFF passing grade) and the Cardinals’ late-down offense (35.7% conversion fee) had been vital in figuring out which franchises had been victorious. Now, let’s flip to Week 15.
Whether or not power in opposition to power, weak spot in opposition to weak spot or just a person battle of nice consequence, listed below are six matchups with a major chance of figuring out winners this week.
Payments’ additional offensive line units vs. Lions
This text needed to start by dissecting Payments-Lions, which pits what seems to be the very best workforce in every convention in opposition to each other. Though these two sides may feasibly sq. off but once more in Tremendous Bowl 59, count on each head coaches to depart no stone unturned in a win — which implies the Payments ought to keep true to their identification.
One in all Joe Brady’s calling playing cards because the workforce’s offensive coordinator is his implementation of additional offensive linemen. Buffalo has utilized six or extra offensive linemen on 15.2% of snaps, simply the very best fee within the NFL. That tendency has labored properly, main the workforce to rank sixth in EPA per play and second in yards per play (5.5) out of Jumbo units. What additionally helps is that, whereas the Payments lean closely towards operating out of the formation, the workforce has additionally handed on 25.6% of such snaps.
Nevertheless, Aaron Glenn’s protection has been unbelievable when opposing offenses attempt to add additional linemen. The Lions rank first in EPA per play in opposition to such appears to be like and have permitted a shocking 0% success fee on seven such defensive performs confronted.
The straightforward fact is that, regardless of Detroit’s excessive effectiveness in opposition to groups trotting out additional linemen, the pattern dimension is extremely restricted. How properly will the Lions function in opposition to a Payments workforce that deploys the formation greater than anybody? If Detroit’s injured protection can stand tall, then the workforce may attain 13 wins. If not, the Payments may safe arguably their greatest win all 12 months.
Steelers’ display screen offense vs. Eagles
The opposite inter-conference heavyweight collision in Week 15 is Steelers-Eagles, with each Pennsylvania groups vying to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. Provided that Pittsburgh is predicted to be with out extensive receiver George Pickens for a second straight week, rather less star energy will likely be on the sphere — which implies the Steelers may lean right into a power.
In Arthur Smith’s first season calling the pictures, Pittsburgh has gone from one of many worst display screen offenses in soccer to among the finest. The Steelers rank third in each EPA per play and success fee when operating screens after slotting 25th in EPA per play a season in the past. Pittsburgh’s potential to distribute the ball to Jaylen Warren (76.1 PFF receiving grade), Najee Harris, Pat Freiermuth or perhaps a receiver has rendered its display screen sport various and profitable.
Nevertheless, the Eagles’ stingy protection has fared successfully in opposition to screens. Philadelphia holds the fourth-best EPA per play mark and the ninth-best success fee when opposing offenses try and execute a display screen, permitting solely 3.5 yards per play — tied for the third fewest.
Smith employed a extra screen-heavy method with out Pickens in opposition to the Browns, and he’s doubtless to take action once more in Lincoln Monetary Area. Will Pittsburgh’s offense have the ability to transfer and rating the ball in opposition to Philadelphia by executing screens, or will the Steelers be caught in impartial for a lot of the day? If Pittsburgh’s display screen sport isn’t buzzing, then the Steelers will want their protection to dominate for this sport to be shut.
Packers‘ receivers vs. the Seahawks’ press protection
You in all probability shouldn’t depart the sofa as soon as 4:25 p.m. ET hits, as a result of Packers-Seahawks on Sunday Evening Soccer is one other dandy — and a possible playoff preview. It will likely be fascinating to observe how Inexperienced Bay’s deep passing sport performs in opposition to Seattle’s press protection.
This season, Packers receivers rank third in yards per route run (4.80), fourth in yards per catch (14.6) and fourth in menace fee (57.8%) when defenses flip to press protection appears to be like. On the identical time, Inexperienced Bay holds simply the 24th-best PFF receiving grade in these conditions, primarily attributable to a league-worst 15.3% drop fee in opposition to press. Christian Watson is the one Packers receiver ranked inside the highest 50 in PFF receiving grade in opposition to press amongst certified wideouts.
On the opposite facet of the road of scrimmage, count on Seattle’s cornerbacks to jab and punch with regularity. The Seahawks have utilized press protection on 72.3% of defensive snaps, the sixth-highest clip within the NFL, and have been robust in that space. Seattle locations ninth in EPA per play, 10th in success fee and 10th in contested catch fee when turning to press protection. Star cornerback tandem Devon Witherspoon and Tariq Woolen every rank inside the highest 20 in PFF protection grade amongst cornerbacks with 100 or extra press-look snaps.
Will Watson, Jayden Reed and Dontavyion Wicks have the ability to generate sufficient separation — and maintain onto the ball? Or will Seattle’s protection assist propel the workforce to a fourth straight win? Keep watch over that receiver-cornerback matchup on this prime-time contest.
Buccaneers’ RB receiving vs. Chargers
After shedding two of their previous three video games, the upstart Chargers head house to tackle the red-hot Buccaneers, who now occupy first place within the NFC South. That is nonetheless a sport with main playoff implications, and a spotlight will naturally gravitate to a high-powered Tampa Bay offense in opposition to a stout Los Angeles protection.
The inspiration of Liam Coen’s first season in Tampa Bay has been the rotation of his operating backs, notably within the passing sport. The Buccaneers rank fourth in operating again targets, fourth in yards per try (7.8) and first in EPA per play when throwing to their operating backs. Bucky Irving and Rachaad White are each top-seven gamers in PFF receiving grade amongst operating backs with 15 or extra targets.
On the identical time, Jesse Minter’s protection has been equally wonderful at limiting catches out of the backfield. The Chargers rank first in workforce protection grade (85.6) and yards per completion allowed (4.76) when groups goal operating backs. Groups have focused their backs in opposition to Los Angeles typically — 87 instances, the third most within the NFL — however solely seven have resulted in explosive beneficial properties.
Will Baker Mayfield have the ability to comfortably swing the ball out to Irving and White, or will the Chargers power a downfield passing assault in opposition to a short-handed Buccaneers receiving room? Merely watching two mastermind coordinators — and potential head coaches in 2025 — sq. off will likely be extremely pleasurable.
C.J. Stroud’s deep passing vs. Dolphins
Dolphins-Texans isn’t a sport to sleep on, particularly given the Texans’ offensive quandaries for a lot of the season. Week 15 presents an excellent probability for Houston to appropriate its frequent missteps when throwing down the sphere.
C.J. Stroud hasn’t blossomed right into a celebrity in his second 12 months, and his deep passing ineffectiveness has been a giant motive. Stroud ranks 21st out of 33 qualifiers in deep passing grade (79.8) and solely 24th in deep passer score (74.), a far cry from his virtually flawless downfield throwing a season in the past. Though Nico Collins sits 20th in deep receiving grade (97.2), Stroud has thrown to him 20-plus yards downfield solely 11 instances — which converts to only 15.5% of his targets.
Though Miami’s protection has made enhancements in Anthony Weaver’s first season, deep protection hasn’t been a forte. The Dolphins rank 25th in workforce protection grade on passes 20 or extra yards downfield and have allowed a 42.5% explosive passing fee, the fourth-worst clip within the league. Security Jevon Holland has posted the third-worst PFF protection grade (25.4) amongst all defenders with 25 or extra deep protection snaps, whereas Jalen Ramsey’s 28.4 deep protection grade ranks seventh worst amongst certified cornerbacks.
Can Houston’s offense lastly attain its excessive ceiling and generate chunk performs deep down the sphere, or will Miami’s protection rectify its deep passing points? If the Dolphins wish to keep alive within the wild-card race, they in all probability gained’t have a lot room for error in surrendering large beneficial properties by means of the air.
Falcons’ dashing earlier than vs. after contact vs. Raiders
The second portion of Monday evening’s doubleheader doesn’t seem like a scintillating sport on paper, however it positively qualifies as a must-win contest for a Falcons workforce that hasn’t emerged victorious since Week 9. Atlanta’s offense might discover favor by means of the air, however the unit may not have an amazing benefit on the bottom.
The Falcons’ run sport has labored all season, even through the workforce’s latest skid. On the 12 months, Atlanta ranks seventh in dashing EPA per play, together with ninth in common yards earlier than and after contact. It’s price noting that star second-year runner Bijan Robinson has been higher earlier than being contacted, tying for 12th in yards earlier than contact per carry (1.6) versus rating 32nd in yards after contact per carry (2.99) amongst certified backs.
These splits are nearly the alternative of the place the Raiders have succeeded. Las Vegas’ run protection is tied for ninth in common yards earlier than contact per carry allowed, however the workforce plummets to 24th in common yards after contact.
Will Robinson get clear lanes behind his stellar offensive line, and can he break tackles even when touched? Or will the Raiders and their ninth-best workforce run-defense grade power Atlanta right into a pass-heavy method behind an underperforming Kirk Cousins? A extra balanced method would assist Atlanta finish its skid on Monday evening.
