• Will Jayden Daniels maintain up higher below stress? Daniels has been one of many NFL’s finest quarterbacks below duress however recorded solely a 53.1 PFF general grade below stress in opposition to the Eagles in Week 11.
• Who wins when operating inside zone, Chiefs or Texans? Kansas Metropolis’s inside-zone recreation hasn’t been efficient, whereas Houston hasn’t defended the look effectively all yr.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full entry to all our in-season fantasy instruments, together with weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Begin-Sit Optimizer and extra. Join now!
Estimated Studying Time: 8 minutes
Whereas the end result of each soccer recreation is influenced by the 22 gamers on every group’s aspect, the area of interest, micro-level battles add an additional layer of nuance. That features gamers or items battling head-to-head, and even defensive coaches making an attempt to out-scheme the opposing quarterback.
Week 15’s focus on the Payments’ use of additional offensive linemen (12 performs, 3.7 yards per play) and Packers receivers in opposition to press protection (league-high 79.0 PFF receiving grade) had been vital in figuring out which franchises had been victorious. Now, let’s flip to Week 16.
Whether or not power in opposition to power, weak spot in opposition to weak spot or just a person conflict of nice consequence, listed here are six matchups with a major likelihood of figuring out winners this week.
Jayden Daniels below stress vs. Eagles
One of many pivotal matchups enmeshed within the Week 16 slate is Eagles-Commanders, the place Philadelphia places its 10-game profitable streak on the road and hopes to safe the NFC East crown. If the 9-5 Commanders wish to keep away from being eradicated from the division title race, they’ll want rookie sensation Jayden Daniels to play higher below stress than in Week 11.
Daniels has truly been implausible when coping with rushers in his face this yr, as his 68.6 PFF general grade ranks fifth amongst certified quarterbacks. His legs have confirmed a clutch asset in these conditions — his 91.0 PFF speeding grade slots third amongst quarterbacks below stress — whereas he’s dedicated a turnover-worthy play on solely 3.3% of makes an attempt, tied for the ninth-lowest mark amongst quarterbacks below stress.
What makes the Eagles’ protection so stout is that it wins each up entrance and within the again finish, with stress a outstanding characteristic. Philadelphia sits sixth in group stress charge and fifth in hurry charge, as Milton Williams, Moro Ojomo, Josh Sweat and Nolan Smith have all compiled pass-rush win charges of 14.6% or higher.
When these two groups squared off in Week 11, Philadelphia’s stress hamstrung the rookie. Daniels went simply 4-of-6 passing for 59 yards and a 53.1 PFF general grade when pressured, which comprised 28.2% of his dropbacks. Evaluate that to a 75.9 PFF general grade when not pressured, and the image is painted of how the Eagles gained decisively.
If Washington’s offensive line can face up to an Eagles flurry, then Daniels and his 12th-lowest allowed stress charge could possibly make performs. But when the Birds can rattle Daniels but once more, the NFC East will possible belong to them.
Cooper Rush on fast passes vs. Buccaneers
Staying within the NFC, Sunday night time’s matchup is stealthily vital, because the Buccaneers don’t have any room for error in main the NFC South by one recreation. If Tampa Bay needs to remain scorching, the protection must be cautious in opposition to rushed throws from Cooper Rush.
Rush’s common 2.35-second time to throw is the second quickest of all certified quarterbacks, and a staggering 57.9% of his dropbacks have included him releasing the ball in 2.5 seconds or much less (additionally second). Apparently, Rush hasn’t carried out significantly better on quick throws — he’s recorded a 58.9 PFF passing grade in both break up — however his clear technique is to sling the ball round shortly.
With the second-highest passing blitz charge in soccer (50%), it’s not shocking to be taught that the Buccaneers additionally maintain the second-best stress charge on fast passes. On the identical time, Tampa Bay’s protection has been higher because the play extends. The Buccaneers rank 26th in group protection grade on throws of below 2.5 seconds, juxtaposed to 10th on passes over that mark.
Assuming that Todd Bowles defaults to a different blitz-heavy method in Dallas, Rush would possibly have the ability to get an edge, given his fast set off. Nonetheless, implementing simulated pressures and letting Rush sit within the pocket would possibly truly make the quarterback extra uncomfortable. Bowles’ blitz patterns will probably be fascinating to observe in primetime.
Steelers‘ tight ends vs. Ravens’ man protection
For the second straight week, the Steelers will battle one other spectacular group on the highway with out star receiver George Pickens. If Pittsburgh needs its offense to fare higher than it did in Week 15, the group’s tight ends might want to have an elevated position.
This yr, Pat Freiermuth has excelled in opposition to man protection, as his 75.1 PFF receiving grade in opposition to man ranks sixth amongst qualifying tight ends. But, he hasn’t been fairly as efficient versus zone, producing solely a 65.2 PFF receiving grade. Whereas Freiermuth is clearly the Steelers’ high receiving tight finish, 6-foot-7 Darnell Washington has additionally been stable in opposition to man, catching three of 4 targets to pair with a 68.4 PFF receiving grade.
In the meantime, the Ravens have utilized Cowl 1 on 22.6% of snaps — their second-most frequent protection — and have the personnel to stifle tight ends. Working extra inside this yr, Marlon Humphrey has been an elite cowl cornerback, having accrued the bottom passer score allowed (53.0) and yards per snap mark (0.59) of all certified slot defenders. Moreover, Ar’Darius Washington and Kyle Hamilton each rank within the high 30 amongst protection defenders in man protection grade. Even then, the Ravens have allowed 79 catches for 869 yards to tight ends in 2024, every bottom-10 marks.
Will Washington (two catches for 42 yards on three targets in Week 11) discover house but once more? Or will the Ravens take away among the few remaining targets for Russell Wilson? If Baltimore forces the Steelers right into a run-heavy method, the house group might get proper again into the AFC North race.
Chiefs’ inside zone speeding vs. Texans
The primary of two Saturday video games affords a glimpse into a possible playoff preview between Houston and Kansas Metropolis. Even with Patrick Mahomes battling by means of an ankle harm, the Chiefs could wish to mitigate the Texans’ star edge defenders with the run recreation — a aspect that’s been a combined bag in 2024.
The Chiefs have referred to as inside zone on 32% of their run performs, which is tied for the second-highest clip within the league. The issue, although, is that frequency hasn’t translated to success. Kansas Metropolis ranks solely 30th in inside-zone success charge and ties for 17th in yards per play.
On the opposite aspect of the road of scrimmage, the Texans have carried out like a middling protection in opposition to inside zone. Houston ranks 20th in yards per play permitted on inside zone (4.2) and place 19th in EPA per play, but the protection has given up solely 5 explosive runs on inside zone. Coincidentally, that’s the identical quantity the Chiefs have attained this yr.
Will Andy Reid have the ability to set up the run up the center along with his elite inside offensive line, serving to offset potential stress from Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr.? Or will the Texans power the Chiefs into apparent passing conditions and pin their ears again? In doubtlessly a low-scoring battle, Kansas Metropolis’s floor success will probably be a big inform.
Jared Goff’s over-the-middle passing vs. Bears
The Lions will look to beat their first loss since Week 2, along with a spate of accidents, once they tackle the Bears in Week 16. For Detroit’s offense to search out its ordinary move state, the group will want Jared Goff to excel over the center — however the Bears could possibly sway that.
This season, Goff leads the NFL in completions over the center of the sector and ranks second in middle-of-field makes an attempt, having compiled an 85.3 PFF passing grade (14th amongst qualifiers). It’s no shocker that Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks 12th in PFF receiving grade (90.5) and second in targets and catches in that zone, too.
Nonetheless, the Bears keep the ninth-best group protection grade on passes over the center. Kyler Gordon’s 81.9 PFF protection grade over the center of the sector ranks 11th amongst certified defenders, however no different Chicago defender is throughout the high 50. Likewise, the Bears rank solely 19th in EPA per play and 16th in success charge when opposing offenses goal between the numbers.
Can Goff and St. Brown get into their ordinary rhythm, serving to offset the lack of David Montgomery within the run recreation? Or can Gordon and Chicago’s underperforming linebackers clog the center and power perimeter passes? If the Bears wish to lastly snap their seemingly infinite shedding streak, they’ll want to discourage Goff from discovering his consolation zone (actually).
Seahawks‘ run protection vs. Vikings
One of many few marquee video games throughout Sunday’s viewing window is Vikings-Seahawks, which can show to be a remaining dash for Seattle within the race for a playoff spot. In a matchup that favors Minnesota in a number of classes, the Seahawks might want to management the bottom recreation to have a official likelihood.
Seattle’s protection has displayed indicators of enchancment in Yr 1 below Mike Macdonald, slotting 11th in EPA per play this season and 12th in success charge since Week 8. One space of battle all yr has been run protection. The Seahawks are 25th in common yards after contact per carry, 27th in yards earlier than contact per carry and tied for 26th in explosive run charge allowed.
Conversely, the run recreation has been one of many few low factors in a typically productive Vikings offense. Minnesota sits 27th in speeding yards after contact per carry, tied for 18th in yards earlier than contact per try and 19th in explosive run charge. This head-to-head matchup is nearly like wanting in a mirror.
The excellent news for Seattle is that it does have extremely graded run defenders in Devon Witherspoon and Julian Love, who each slot within the high 19 amongst qualifiers. Will Witherspoon and Love assist crash all the way down to gradual Aaron Jones, or will Kevin O’Connell have the ability to set up stability on offense? Seattle should comprise Minnesota’s offense as a lot as doable in a disadvantageous matchup for its personal injured offense.
