• Will the Lions’ play-action passing be as robust in opposition to the Vikings? If Detroit desires to maintain the No. 1 seed, it might want to keep its effectiveness in opposition to a Minnesota protection that defends play motion properly.
• How will Carson Wentz deal with the blitz? The Broncos have blitzed on the third-highest charge this 12 months, however Wentz excelled in opposition to further rushers in his final begin.
• 2025 NFL Draft season is right here: Strive PFF’s best-in-class Mock Draft Simulator and study 2025’s prime prospects whereas buying and selling and drafting on your favourite NFL crew.
Estimated Studying Time: 8 minutes
Whereas the end result of each soccer recreation is influenced by the 22 gamers on every crew’s aspect, the area of interest, micro-level battles add an additional layer of nuance. That features gamers or items battling head-to-head, and even defensive coaches attempting to out-scheme the opposing quarterback.
Earlier than a quick vacation hiatus, Week 16’s focus on Jayden Daniels beneath stress (70.4 PFF total grade, two big-time throws) and Steelers tight ends in opposition to the Ravens (six targets for 20 yards) had been impactful in figuring out which groups gained two weeks in the past. Though fewer groups are taking part in with intentionality in Week 18, there are nonetheless parts in every matchup that might resolve if upsets preserve contenders out of the postseason.
Whether or not power in opposition to power, weak spot in opposition to weak spot or just a person warfare of nice consequence, listed here are six matchups with a major likelihood of figuring out winners this week.
Lions’ play-action passing vs. Vikings
The centerpiece of Week 18 is Vikings-Lions on Sunday Night time Soccer, which really brings this collection full circle: The primary version of “matchups” mentioned Jared Goff’s play in opposition to the blitz in Week 7. Goff will definitely have to get the ball out quick in opposition to stress but once more, however one other angle to look at is Detroit’s play motion.
The Lions have successfully been the NFL’s finest play-action crew all 12 months. Detroit ranks first in play-action success charge and EPA per play, to not point out second in crew offensive grade. Moreover, Goff’s 88.1 play-action passing grade ranks sixth amongst qualifiers.
Nonetheless, Minnesota has been equally stingy in opposition to play-action appears. The Vikings slot second in EPA per play and success charge on play motion. On the identical time, the crew’s protection on play motion hasn’t been fairly as efficient, sitting solely 17th. Brian Flores’ protection hasn’t had a lot luck with getting residence on play motion both, producing simply the 22nd-best sack charge.
Within the first matchup between these powerhouses, the Lions ran play motion 11 occasions to the tune of 11 yards per play and a 54.5% success charge. Likewise, Goff recorded a 72.6 PFF passing grade, zero turnover-worthy performs and no sacks on play motion in opposition to the Vikings.
If Detroit’s play-action go recreation continues to churn, it ought to permit the Lions to maintain up with Minnesota’s high-powered offense in a shootout — but when not, the Vikings might simply seize the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
Bengals’ RPO offense vs. Steelers
Saturday night time’s matchup between the Bengals and Steelers presents a red-hot Cincinnati crew in opposition to a robust Steelers squad trying to appropriate course earlier than the playoffs. Control the Bengals’ use of RPOs on this one.
Pittsburgh’s protection has been a official legal responsibility through the crew’s three-game skid, rating 27th in EPA per play and 24th in success charge allowed in that span. Plenty of these points have stemmed from communication and protection integrity, the place RPOs can victimize a unit. The Steelers rank 29th in RPO success charge and EPA per play this season. They’ve given up 14 first downs on RPOs over simply the previous three weeks — six greater than the next-closest crew.
In the meantime, the Bengals’ incredible offense hasn’t turned closely to RPOs all 12 months, working simply 60 (22nd). Cincinnati hasn’t been particularly environment friendly on the ideas both: The Bengals place 31st in RPO EPA per play, and Joe Burrow’s 57.6 PFF passing grade on RPOs sits 34th out of 43 certified quarterbacks. He has tried solely 12 RPO throws all 12 months.
Even because the Bengals had been in common rhythm in opposition to Pittsburgh in Week 13, Zac Taylor and offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher known as just one RPO, relying extra on a conventional dropback passing recreation (the place Burrow has excelled all 12 months). Will Cincinnati’s offensive braintrust capitalize on a Pittsburgh defensive weak spot? And in that case, will the Steelers make the mandatory fixes after 9 days of relaxation?
Carson Wentz when blitzed vs. Broncos
Though few of Sunday’s matchups carry super playoff implications, the sport with probably the most ramifications is Chiefs-Broncos within the late window. If the Broncos need to win and lock down the AFC’s closing playoff spot, they’ll should be cautious about blitzing Carson Wentz, who’s poised to start out rather than Patrick Mahomes.
Wentz has performed solely 9 snaps this 12 months, together with taking three dropbacks. That provides a really restricted pattern measurement of what to anticipate from the previous Philadelphia Eagle, however one can take a look at his final begin in Week 18 of 2023 in opposition to the 49ers. Wentz was usually terrific, particularly on blitzes — the place he went 7-of-7 with a 90.9 PFF total grade, one big-time throw, zero turnover-worthy performs and just one sack taken.
Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has galvanized the crew’s protection with the third-highest blitz charge within the NFL, however these calls haven’t all the time been favorable. The Broncos rank simply 12th in EPA per play and 19th in success charge when further rushers are despatched, each beneath what one would count on for a protection that’s been stout for a lot of the 12 months.
In a frenetic Week 17 showdown, Joe Burrow carved up Denver’s blitz, finishing 21-of-29 makes an attempt for 2 big-time throws, zero turnover-worthy performs and an 86.3 PFF total grade on 31 dropbacks. Will Joseph preserve sending the warmth at Wentz, who principally hasn’t performed in a 12 months? And can that technique repay? If the backup-heavy Chiefs find yourself pulling off the upset, Wentz’s work in opposition to the blitz will possible be a significant cause.
Jets‘ outside-zone speeding vs. Dolphins
The Dolphins will probably be pulling particularly exhausting for Wentz and the Chiefs, however in addition they have to deal with enterprise on the highway in opposition to the Jets. For Mike McDaniel’s bunch, the main focus ought to be on New York’s outside-zone speeding.
Though the Jets rank 26th in crew speeding grade, they’ve been environment friendly on outdoors zone, which the offense has turned to on 44% of runs. The Jets place sixth in EPA per play, seventh in success charge and 14th in crew speeding grade when implementing outdoors zone. Rookie Braelon Allen ranks 10th amongst qualifying rushers with a 78.2 PFF speeding grade on these ideas, performing higher than Breece Corridor (63.4).
But, the Dolphins have shut down outside-zone runs for a lot of the season. Miami ranks first in crew run-defense grade, ninth in EPA per play, 10th in success charge and second in yards earlier than contact per carry in opposition to outdoors zone.
The warfare to look at on this one is who wins the road of scrimmage as a result of each groups have decisive benefits in both space. The Jets are ninth in common yards per carry after contact on outdoors zone, whereas the Dolphins rank simply 26th in that division. In the meantime, New York sits solely 17th in yards earlier than contact per carry.
If the Dolphins can get to Allen and Corridor early, it will put them in a superb place to win. But when not, the Jets may be capable to thwart Miami’s playoff hopes by protecting runs alive.
Spencer Rattler throwing previous the sticks vs. Buccaneers
If the Buccaneers take down the beaten-up Saints, they’ll safe their fourth straight NFC South title. To take action, they’ll want to make sure their weak protection holds up in opposition to Rattler.
Tampa Bay’s protection has been an issue all season, rating 20th in crew grade. That’s very true on throws previous the sticks, the place the Buccaneers are 26th in EPA per play, 27th in success charge and 28th in passer ranking allowed.
On the identical time, Rattler (51.3 PFF passing grade) hasn’t carried out admirably in his rookie season, together with on makes an attempt past the first-down marker. Rattler’s 69.1 PFF passing grade on throws previous the sticks sits 36th out of 43 certified quarterbacks, and his 8.6% turnover-worthy play charge is the third-highest clip within the NFL.
Will Todd Bowles’ stress appears overwhelm Rattler and preserve him from making an attempt correct throws downfield? Or will the rookie cling in and make the most of a foul secondary on deeper makes an attempt? In these rivals’ first go-around in Week 6, Rattler went 9-of-17 for 179 yards, one big-time throw, one turnover-worthy play and a 71.2 PFF passing grade on throws previous the sticks. If that holds, the Buccaneers could possibly be in for a better recreation than they’d like.
Michael Penix Jr. throwing outdoors the numbers vs. Panthers
The Falcons’ final gasp at making the playoffs comes all the way down to them beating the Panthers and Tampa Bay shockingly slipping up in opposition to the Saints, however by no means say by no means. Atlanta’s odds would enhance much more if Penix performs higher in his bread-and-butter passing technique: outdoors the numbers.
Since his first NFL begin in Week 16, Penix has tried 41 passes outdoors the numbers, the third most within the league in that span. That’s not astounding, contemplating that method labored wonders for him in faculty at Washington. What’s sudden, although, is that Penix hasn’t been very efficient on these passes. He’s notched solely a 57.7 PFF passing grade on throws outdoors the numbers to date, good for 29th out of 32 qualifiers.
On the opposite aspect of the road of scrimmage, the Panthers’ protection has been a large number all season. That extends to perimeter protection: Carolina ranks 26th in crew protection grade and 29th in passer ranking allowed on throws to the far sides of the sphere. Linebacker Josey Jewell (who didn’t play in Week 17 and hasn’t practiced to date this week) is the one Panther inside the highest 100 of certified defenders in outside-the-numbers protection grade.
Will Penix and Atlanta’s vertical-threat playmakers discover their footing outdoors the hashes, or will Jaycee Horn and Carolina’s protection present some development in its closing alternative of 2024? Atlanta has a myriad of strategies to win this recreation, however hitting on these particular passing probabilities would assist enormously.
