• Can the Chargers get separation in opposition to the Chiefs? Anticipated to be with out Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles will want its receivers to beat Kansas Metropolis’s subpar man protection.
• Will the Rams’ pistol offense work in opposition to the Payments? Los Angeles has used the pistol on the third-highest price, however Buffalo has performed like a top-10 protection in opposition to the alignment.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full entry to all our in-season fantasy instruments, together with weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Begin-Sit Optimizer and extra. Enroll now!
Estimated Studying Time: 8 minutes
Whereas the result of each soccer sport is influenced by the 22 gamers on every crew’s facet, analyzing the area of interest, micro-level battles provides an additional layer of nuance. That features gamers or models battling head-to-head, and even defensive coaches making an attempt to out-scheme the opposing quarterback.
Week 13’s focus on the Eagles’ go safety (solely 5 pressures allowed) and the Steelers’ red-zone offense (2-for-3 in scoring red-zone touchdowns) performed massive roles in dictating which groups gained. Now, let’s flip the script to Week 14.
Whether or not energy in opposition to energy, weak point in opposition to weak point or just a person conflict of nice consequence, listed below are six matchups with a major likelihood of figuring out winners this week.
Sam Darnold vs. Falcons‘ 3 Seam protection
The elephant within the room for this matchup is Kirk Cousins’ return to Minnesota, and for good cause. The depth is ramping up for Cousins, particularly following his four-interception outing in opposition to the Chargers in Week 13. On the similar time, the quarterback strolling the opposite sidelines can also be extremely compelling.
Sam Darnold has unquestionably been one of many league’s extra improved passers this yr, bumping his PFF passing grade to a career-high 80.5 mark — which ranks seventh amongst qualifiers. He’s had super success in opposition to most coverages, together with 3 Seam — successfully, Cowl 3 however hook defenders matching vertical routes of their areas. Darnold’s 80.1 PFF passing grade in opposition to 3 Seam ranks seventh, however he’s solely confronted it eight instances.
In the meantime, the Falcons function nearly completely from a three-high shell, working both Cowl 3 or 3 Seam 41.8% of the time. Atlanta’s penchant for 3 Seam is the very best within the NFL, at a 13.4% clip. The Falcons have additionally tacked on the fifth-best PFF protection grade (73.3) from that look.
Darnold has performed effectively in opposition to 3 Seam, however will the extra zone match look throw him off? And can Falcons defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake keep on with a primarily Cowl 3/3 Seam look, realizing that Darnold has fared effectively in opposition to it? How effectively the Falcons can restrict Darnold’s big-time throws will dictate if they will proper the ship in Week 14.
Chargers‘ receivers vs. Chiefs‘ man protection
The Chiefs have all however locked up the AFC West for the ninth straight season, however their second matchup with the Chargers nonetheless gives a possible playoff preview. What will even be showcased Sunday night time is which facet can prevail in man protection.
This yr, Los Angeles receivers rank 31st in cumulative receiving grade in opposition to man protection. That’s regardless of rookie Ladd McConkey having been one of many league’s greatest wideouts in opposition to man, rating fourth in PFF receiving grade. However with McConkey trying unbelievable to play, Justin Herbert will look to focus on Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston — whose 43.5 PFF receiving grade in opposition to man locations lifeless final amongst 95 certified receivers.
On the opposite facet, Chiefs defenders haven’t been extraordinarily stout in man, both. Kansas Metropolis ranks solely 22nd in man protection grade, and the parallels are uncanny in how that breaks down. Jaylen Watson’s 90.0 PFF protection grade in man locations fourth amongst all certified defenders, however he hasn’t performed since Week 7 attributable to a fractured ankle. Watson is the one Chiefs defender ranked inside the highest 100.
Will Steve Spagnuolo depend on man protection in opposition to a shorthanded receiver room, and can Los Angeles be capable to take benefit? If Herbert’s targets aren’t getting open, the duty turns into rather more Herculean for the Chargers’ elite protection.
Chargers Receivers vs. Man Protection
Cardinals‘ late-down offense vs. Seahawks
After hovering to a 6-4 report, the Cardinals’ feel-good season has taken a little bit of a wayward flip over the previous two weeks, with Arizona shedding street video games to the Seahawks and Vikings. An enormous cause is the crew’s late-down offense, which began to battle in Week 12 in Seattle.
Over the previous two weeks, the Cardinals rank 32nd in conversion price (at simply 33.3%) and 30th in profitable play price on third and fourth downs. These woes have dovetailed with an offense that locations solely 24th in EPA per play in that span. The late-down numbers are a far cry from the place Arizona was earlier within the yr, sitting tied for ninth in late-down conversion price (44.4%) from Weeks 1-10.
Seattle’s protection has been barely higher than common when confronted with late-down conditions all yr. The Seahawks slot 14th in conversion price and 15th in success price on third and fourth downs. However Mike Macdonald’s group hunkered down in Week 12, holding the Cardinals to a dismal 23.1% late-down conversion mark.
Will Kyler Murray and Arizona be capable to higher transfer the chains — and keep away from turnovers, as their three on late downs is tied for probably the most previously two weeks? Or will Seattle notch its seventh straight win over Arizona — and achieve a two-game lead within the NFC West — by staying off the sector defensively?
Bryce Younger’s intermediate passing vs. Eagles
There haven’t been many higher feel-good tales over the previous month than the resurgence of Bryce Younger, who has returned from being benched and performed like a fringe top-10 quarterback since. Nevertheless, a serious take a look at looms this week in opposition to one of many NFL’s greatest within the Eagles.
One division the place Younger has thrived since his return is on intermediate (10-to-19 yards) passes. His 88.5 intermediate passing grade since Week 10 ranks fourth. In that span, the second-year quarterback has posted a 61.3% adjusted completion share, with three big-time throws and 0 turnover-worthy performs.
The Eagles are stout in nearly each division, which explains them slotting fifth in defensive EPA per play. Apparently sufficient, intermediate passes haven’t been fairly as a lot of a forte, with Philadelphia rating 12th in PFF general grade in opposition to these makes an attempt. Security Reed Blankenship grades because the 13th-best defender (excluding defensive linemen/edge rushers) versus such seems to be.
Will Younger be brave sufficient to throw right into a center of the sector guarded by Zack Baun, and can his receivers discover area within the intermediate vary? If that’s the case, the Panthers might put up a battle in opposition to a juggernaut in Lincoln Monetary Area. If not, this contest might get lopsided.
Highest-Graded Intermediate Passers Since Week 10
Rams‘ pistol offense vs. Payments
At 6-6, the Rams are nonetheless alive in a frenetic NFC West race. A frightening job lies forward in going through the red-hot Payments, who’ve carried out effectively in a glance the place Los Angeles is comfy.
As is usually true with the Matthew Stafford-Sean McVay pairing, the Rams have leaned closely on the pistol on offense this yr. Los Angeles ranks third in pistol share, at 17.6%, with an accompanying success price that locations 12th. Stafford’s 66.9 PFF passing grade within the pistol ranks 12th amongst qualifiers, and he’s additionally compiled the second-most pistol dropbacks.
The well-rounded Payments protection, although, has fared effectively in opposition to pistol offenses this yr. Buffalo ranks ninth in EPA per play and 10th in success price in opposition to the pistol. In two video games in opposition to the Dolphins — who’ve carried out pistol on 26.7% of offensive snaps this yr — the Payments allowed 5.3 yards per play however permitted a 42% success price.
The Rams have already dropped vital house matchups to the Eagles and Dolphins in latest weeks, with time working skinny to maintain tempo atop the division. If Stafford and McVay can discover success in opposition to a fierce protection by turning to the pistol, then Los Angeles might do sufficient to compile a late-season successful streak. But when not, it’s exhausting to ascertain the Rams retaining tempo with the high-powered Payments.
Bengals‘ go rush vs. Cowboys‘ offensive line
Bengals-Cowboys on Monday Night time Soccer doesn’t maintain the identical gravity as anticipated heading into the yr, but it surely does present a glimpse into two outstanding coaches on two groups desperately making an attempt to stave off elimination. Specifically, how these groups carry out within the trenches when Dallas has the ball can be vital.
The Bengals’ go rush has been lackluster all season — and is arguably one of many largest causes the crew sits at 4-8. Though Trey Hendrickson (59 pressures, 86.4 PFF general grade) has been one of many NFL’s extra unstoppable edge defenders, Cincinnati hasn’t generated something exterior of the star. Hendrickson is the one Bengal to report a pass-rush win price above 10%, and the crew’s entrance 4 ranks 29th in pass-rushing productiveness.
In the meantime, the Cowboys’ offensive line regression has performed a important function within the crew’s 5-7 report. Dallas ranks 25th in go safety, and the crew’s replacements for veterans haven’t crammed in as aptly as their predecessors. Rookie left deal with Tyler Guyton has recorded solely a 57.1 PFF pass-blocking grade, and rookie middle Cooper Beebe hasn’t been significantly better (60.3).
Will a Bengal apart from Hendrickson — resembling B.J. Hill or Sam Hubbard — play at a disruptive degree, or will the Cowboys be capable to shield Cooper Rush in opposition to an underwhelming protection? Hendrickson is able to being a one-man wrecking crew, however his work alone won’t be sufficient for the Bengals to prevail.
