• What does Aaron Glenn have in retailer for Jayden Daniels? The Lions’ defensive coordinator altered his protection patterns in Week 18, and he may use extra Cowl 2 this week.
• Take note of Josh Allen‘s play-action passing: Allen earned a top-10 PFF passing grade on the idea, however Baltimore was one of many NFL’s finest defenses towards it late within the season.
• 2025 NFL Draft season is right here: Attempt PFF’s best-in-class Mock Draft Simulator and find out about 2025’s prime prospects whereas buying and selling and drafting on your favourite NFL workforce.
Estimated Studying Time: 6 minutes
Whereas the end result of each soccer recreation is influenced by the 22 gamers on every workforce’s aspect, the area of interest, micro-level battles add an additional layer of nuance. That features gamers or items battling head-to-head or defensive coaches attempting to out-scheme the opposing quarterback.
Final week’s focus on Matthew Stafford beneath stress (68.1 PFF passing grade, 75% adjusted completion share) and Derrick Henry towards loaded bins (17 carries, 83 yards, 74.7 PFF speeding grade) helped swing the outcomes of wild-card weekend. With the stage solely magnified throughout the divisional spherical, coordinators have to convey the shrewdest of methods to the desk.
Whether or not power towards power, weak point towards weak point or just a person struggle of nice consequence, right here is one matchup to pay shut consideration to in all 4 divisional-round battles.
Patrick Mahomes vs. Houston Texans‘ blitzes
The Texans pulled off a slightly shockingly dominant win over the Chargers within the wild-card spherical, fueled by an amazing day for the workforce’s protection. What notably labored for DeMeco Ryans was a excessive blitz fee towards Justin Herbert, and the identical method may very well be the workforce’s finest shot at successful in Arrowhead Stadium.
Houston blitzed Herbert on 37.8% of passing snaps, the protection’s third-highest fee of the yr. With additional rushers in his face, Herbert went simply 5-of-11 for 70 yards and a 71.0 PFF passing grade. Granted, Herbert was really worse when not blitzed (52.6 PFF passing grade), however Houston’s stress and strategic stunts actually impacted his rhythm and timing.
All yr lengthy, Mahomes hasn’t been distinctive when dealing with 5 or extra rushers. His 70.3 PFF passing grade towards the blitz ranks 18th out of 26 qualifying starters, though his 88.8 PFF speeding grade ranks third.
When these groups squared off in Week 16, Houston blitzed Mahomes 30.4% of the time and the three-time Tremendous Bowl champ secured a mediocre 65.4 PFF passing grade and a 46.2% adjusted completion share towards the appears.
If the Texans handle to drag off the upset, it can probably be due to their upstart protection standing tall but once more — and augmenting that blitz fee towards a makeshift offensive line may very well be essentially the most prudent methodology of doing so.
Patrick Mahomes’ Blitzed/Not Blitzed Splits in 2024
Jayden Daniels vs. Lions’ Cowl-2 appears
Daniels’ efficiency towards a premier defensive thoughts in Aaron Glenn is among the many prime storylines of the Commanders-Lions duel. As Glenn did towards Sam Darnold in Week 18, this matchup may very effectively incorporate the Lions switching up their tendencies to have an effect on Daniels.
Detroit has primarily operated out of Cowl 1 and Cowl 3, using the appears on 52.9% of snaps. In the meantime, their Cowl-2 fee is simply 12.3%. The truth that the Lions’ 66.0 workforce PFF protection grade from Cowl 2 is decrease than the prior two ideas helps clarify why Glenn hasn’t carried out it as a lot.
Nonetheless, among the many three choices mentioned above, Daniels has by far been at his worst when dealing with Cowl 2. His 58.9 PFF passing grade towards these appears ranks 32nd out of 43 certified quarterbacks, and his 5.0% turnover-worthy play fee locations 12th highest. In the meantime, Daniels owns an 82.4 PFF passing grade towards Cowl 3 and a 68.0 PFF passing grade towards Cowl 1.
Two weeks in the past, Glenn displayed his acumen and suppleness by turning to Cowl 0 on 23.1% of Detroit’s defensive performs towards the Vikings — significantly greater than the Lions’ 5.8% season-long fee. In a recreation the place Detroit’s protection might want to stop Washington’s environment friendly offense from retaining tempo, to what extent Glenn adjusts the dial to Cowl 2 will probably decide how effectively the Lions can flummox Daniels.
Saquon Barkley after contact vs. Rams
The final time the Eagles and Rams battled, Barkley placed on a present with 255 yards and an 84.6 PFF speeding grade. If the Rams need a greater consequence this time round, they’ll have to house in on tackling Barkley as early as doable.
A lot of Barkley’s success in that Week 12 contest was due to his Herculean play after contact. The All-Professional runner averaged a ridiculous 6.0 yards after contact per carry — nonetheless essentially the most by any participant with 20-plus carries in a recreation this yr. Altogether, the Rams have been accountable for a mean of 4.1 yards after contact surrendered per carry in that Sunday Evening Soccer conflict, their second-worst single-game mark of the season.
However Chris Shula’s protection has improved immensely in stopping speeding yards after contact because the season has endured. Since Week 8, the Rams have yielded the third-fewest speeding yards after contact (2.6) regardless of enjoying towards Kenneth Walker III and James Cook dinner. Nonetheless, Los Angeles nonetheless ranks 18th in speeding EPA per play and 13th in success fee in that span, which means not all run-defense holes have been patched.
The very best shot the Rams have at pulling off the upset is by limiting Philadelphia’s dynamic run recreation and forcing Jalen Hurts into apparent passing conditions, notably getting stress on the quarterback. The required first step in conducting that’s to decelerate Barkley, which is way simpler mentioned than performed.
Most Yards After Contact in 2024 Amongst Working Backs
Josh Allen’s play-action passing vs. Ravens
Allen and Lamar Jackson — the most effective particular person face-offs of your complete postseason. Whereas Jackson’s postseason scrutiny stays excessive, Allen might want to play higher towards a markedly improved protection since these groups met in Week 4.
Play motion has been one in all Allen’s signature weapons this yr. The MVP candidate ranks seventh amongst qualifiers with a 91.9 PFF general grade on the idea, and his 89.6 PFF speeding grade is the second-best mark amongst quarterbacks. In flip, the Payments rank seventh in EPA per play and fourth in success fee on play motion.
However the Ravens have stifled play motion, particularly within the second half of the season. Since Week 10, Baltimore sits second in success fee and EPA per play towards play motion, having given up the fewest yards per play (5.7) on pretend handoffs.
Throughout the first bout between these powerhouses, Allen performed subpar soccer on play motion, finishing 3-of-6 passes for 9 yards, zero big-time throws and two turnover-worthy performs. The quarterback’s ineffectiveness, paired with a monster speeding recreation from Baltimore, enabled a landslide Ravens victory. If the Payments wish to escape a second loss to the Ravens this yr, Allen and the workforce’s play-action move recreation have to be productive.
