- Buffalo’s path to victory could also be on the bottom: The Payments‘ run sport has flourished within the playoffs, courtesy of 1 small adjustment.
- Can Jalen Hurts get again on observe through play motion? The Eagles deployed a season-high fee of play motion towards Washington in Week 11, and it may alleviate passing-game points.
- 2025 NFL Draft season is right here: Strive PFF’s best-in-class Mock Draft Simulator and study 2025’s prime prospects whereas buying and selling and drafting to your favourite NFL workforce.
Estimated Studying Time: 7 minutes
Whereas the end result of each soccer sport is influenced by the 22 gamers on every workforce’s aspect, the area of interest, micro-level battles add an additional layer of nuance. That features gamers or models battling head-to-head or defensive coaches making an attempt to out-scheme the opposing quarterback.
Final week’s focus on Saquon Barkley after contact (6.54 yards per carry) and the Lions working Cowl 2 (solely seven performs) had been main influences in deciding the ultimate 4 groups standing within the NFL. With each the AFC and NFC Championship video games serving as regular-season rematches, these groups can be much more in tune with their year-long tendencies — and discover methods to throw curveballs.
Whether or not power towards power, weak point towards weak point or just a person conflict of nice consequence, listed below are 4 matchups to pay shut consideration to within the AFC and NFC Championship video games.
Payments’ run sport vs. Chiefs‘ run protection
Of their two postseason matchups, the Payments have lined up towards two of the NFL’s extra imposing defenses within the Broncos and Ravens. The outcomes have been very favorable, which is a testomony to Joe Brady — notably, his deal with the run sport.
Buffalo has generated 0.117 anticipated factors added per play, a 44.9% success fee and 26 speeding first downs throughout the 2 outings, all top-three marks among the many 14 groups to qualify. In the meantime, within the common season, the Payments had been nonetheless a powerful working workforce, however their 0.024 EPA per play and 35.1% success fee are nonetheless markedly beneath the place they’re now. So, what’s modified?
Buffalo’s run sport has remained terribly numerous, very like its broader offense, however Brady tweaked it and carried out extra energy runs (i.e., pulling offensive linemen, particularly tackles like Dion Dawkins). Take into account Buffalo’s run design splits within the common season in comparison with the postseason:
| Common Season | Postseason | |
| Outdoors Zone | 29% | 28% |
| Man | 23% | 24% |
| Energy | 10% | 21% |
| Inside Zone | 16% | 12% |
| Counter | 5% | 3% |
On energy runs within the playoffs, 5 Payments comprise the highest 11 gamers in PFF run-blocking grade, headlined by Dawkins’ 74.4 mark — the very best amongst any offensive lineman. Alongside these strains, all the Payments workforce has elevated its run blocking in January, mirrored by its bounce from a workforce 64.5 PFF run-blocking grade to a 72.2 run-blocking mark.
On the opposite aspect of the road of scrimmage sits a Chiefs protection that’s been barely above common towards the run. Kansas Metropolis sits thirteenth in speeding EPA allowed per play, seventeenth in success fee allowed and eleventh in speeding yards allowed per carry. What may deter Buffalo is that the Chiefs personal the fifth-best workforce PFF run-defense grade towards energy (77.4) and the fourth-best determine towards outdoors zone (67.1) however are solely twenty second towards man (61.6).
The underside line is that this: If Buffalo can proceed to ascertain the run with each Josh Allen and James Cook dinner, then it has an actual shot of beating Kansas Metropolis and reaching the Tremendous Bowl. But when the Payments’ run sport will get stymied, then the Chiefs would theoretically have an edge with their proficient secondary towards Buffalo’s mediocre receiving corps.
Most Dashing Makes an attempt within the 2024 Postseason
Jayden Daniels’ scrambles vs. Eagles
Daniels’ rookie season joined the annals of NFL historical past after he led Washington to an unbelievable NFC Championship berth. The rookie’s play when blitzed has been an otherworldly idea in and of itself, however be careful for his speeding towards Philadelphia on Sunday.
All yr lengthy, Daniels has been one of many NFL’s premier scrambling quarterbacks, rating second with a 92.9 PFF speeding grade whereas main the league in missed tackles pressured (32) and first downs gained (36). He has scrambled solely 4 instances in two playoff video games however has secured a league-leading 90.5 PFF speeding grade with 5 missed tackles pressured.
For as elite because the Eagles’ protection has been in 2024, scramble protection hasn’t been a specific forte. Philadelphia sits 22nd in EPA per play, 15th in success fee, 15th in yards per play and 23rd in missed tackles when quarterbacks take off.
When these two rivals met, Daniels’ scrambles definitely helped dictate the sport outcome. In Week 11, he scrambled solely 4 instances for 15 yards, claiming one first down and nil missed tackles within the course of. However in Week 16, the rookie obtained the higher of Vic Fangio’s unit with six scrambles for 50 yards, 5 missed tackles pressured and two first downs.
With Commanders proper guard Samuel Cosmi (torn ACL) out, Daniels’ potential to slither away from stress — possible coming from the trio of Jalen Carter, Milton Williams and Moro Ojomo — will play an enormous position in how nicely Washington’s offense can maintain tempo.
Patrick Mahomes beneath stress vs. Payments
Mahomes has displayed no indicators of ending his reign of playoff dominance. However the potential four-time Lombardi Trophy winner should play higher beneath duress than he did towards Buffalo earlier this yr.
When the Chiefs ventured to Western New York in Week 11, Mahomes went solely 4-of-11 passing beneath stress, registering a 44.4 PFF passing grade and a 13.3% turnover-worthy play fee — each of which had been season lows. Buffalo was in a position to disrupt Mahomes with Greg Rousseau (six pressures) getting residence and pairing that with tight protection, forcing the two-time MVP to carry onto the ball for a median of three.13 seconds — his highest all yr.
Nevertheless, Mahomes was positively higher beneath stress towards the Texans within the divisional spherical. Final week, he accomplished 6-of-9 passes for 44 yards, a 69.0 PFF passing grade, a 20% big-time throw fee and a 6.3% turnover-worthy play fee when Houston obtained residence. These numbers are extra consistent with what he’s executed all yr, as Mahomes’ 65.0 PFF passing grade beneath stress ranks third within the league. The identical goes for final yr’s Chiefs-Payments divisional matchup, when Mahomes was surgical in that division (5-of-7, 73 yards, 83.7 PFF passing grade, zero turnover-worthy performs).
How nicely Kansas Metropolis’s up to date offensive line holds up towards Rousseau can be crucial, however so too will Mahomes’ efficiency with defenders in his lap. If the sport’s finest can stay correct and turnover-free beneath stress, then the Chiefs ought to be capable of get to a 3rd straight Tremendous Bowl.
Jalen Hurts on play motion vs. Commanders
The Eagles’ largest fear revolves round Hurts, who may have a completely separate article dedicated to his play beneath stress. How nicely he does on play motion towards a subpar Washington protection can also be price following.
When Hurts and the Eagles beat the Commanders in Week 11, play motion was the workforce’s tried-and-true methodology. Whereas using the idea on 41.2% of dropbacks, simply a season excessive, Hurts went 9-of-12 for 113 yards, zero turnover-worthy performs and a 100% adjusted completion proportion. His 84.1 PFF passing grade on play motion was considerably larger than on non-play motion dropbacks (49.2), which displays his disparate splits.
| Play Motion | ||
| Passing Grade | 76.3 | 59.4 |
| Large-Time Throw % | 4.9% | 3% |
| Turnover-Worthy Play % | 2.2% | 3.9% |
| Adjusted Completion % | 91% | 76.6% |
When opposing offenses run play motion this yr, the Commanders have been about common. Washington ranks 14th in EPA per play, 26th in success fee, 16th in common yards per play and 17th in workforce PFF protection grade. The workforce’s numbers haven’t been significantly better towards play motion within the postseason, though Jared Goff accomplished solely 5-of-8 play-action makes an attempt on a smaller utilization fee within the divisional spherical.
When Hurts performed solely 12 snaps in Landover, Maryland, in Week 16, Eagles offensive coordinator Kellen Moore was extra hesitant to deploy play motion, working it simply 20% of the time with Kenny Pickett — who generated a measly 50.6 PFF passing grade on such performs. With Hurts again beneath middle within the trilogy of this sequence, the Commanders might want to maintain up higher towards pretend handoffs in the event that they need to shock the world for a 3rd time.
