The Philadelphia Eagles have gained eight video games in a row and are at the moment tied because the second-betting favorites to win the Tremendous Bowl at +500. The offense has been propelled by working again Saquon Barkley, who’s the overwhelming favourite to win the Offensive Participant of the Yr award at -500. The dynamic runner can also be second in MVP odds (+300) behind solely quarterback Josh Allen (-250).
That stated, is now the time to leap on the Eagles bandwagon and wager on them to win all of it?
Sadly, groups with offenses led by a working again have traditionally been dangerous Tremendous Bowl bets.
Barkley is on tempo to set a file for dashing yards in a season, albeit in a 17-game season (Eric Dickerson set the file in 1984 with 2,105 yards in 16 video games). Barkley’s present tempo is 2,123 yards on 348.5 carries. That appears nice, however groups with working backs who’ve had historic dashing seasons have typically been simple playoff outs. Trying on the numbers, most of them haven’t gained a single playoff recreation of their historic season (excluding the working backs whose groups failed even to qualify). The groups with working backs who had high 12 all-time dashing seasons within the Tremendous Bowl Period are 6-9 total within the playoffs, with simply one among these groups — Terrell Davis’ 1998 Broncos — capturing a Tremendous Bowl ring.
Rank | Participant (age) | Yds | Yr | Tm | Playoff Rushes | Playoff yards | Playoff TDs | Playoff Ws | Playoff Ls |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
Saquon Barkley (27) |
2123 (tempo) |
2024 |
PHI |
? |
? |
? |
? |
? |
2 |
Eric Dickerson+ (24) |
2,105 |
1984 |
RAM |
23 |
107 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
3 |
Adrian Peterson (27) |
2,097 |
2012 |
MIN |
22 |
99 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
4 |
Jamal Lewis(24) |
2,066 |
2003 |
BAL |
14 |
35 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
Barry Sanders+ (29) |
2,053 |
1997 |
DET |
18 |
65 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
6 |
Derrick Henry (26) |
2,027 |
2020 |
TEN |
18 |
40 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
7 |
Terrell Davis+ (25) |
2,008 |
1998 |
DEN |
78 |
468 |
3 |
3 |
0 |
8 |
Chris Johnson(23) |
2,006 |
2009 |
TEN |
N/A |
||||
9 |
O.J. Simpson+ (26) |
2,003 |
1973 |
BUF |
N/A |
||||
10 |
Earl Campbell+ (25) |
1,934 |
1980 |
HOU |
27 |
91 |
1 |
0 |
1 |
11 |
Ahman Inexperienced(26) |
1,883 |
2003 |
GNB |
48 |
219 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
12 |
Barry Sanders+ (26) |
1,883 |
1994 |
DET |
13 |
-1 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
13 |
Shaun Alexander(28) |
1,880 |
2005 |
SEA |
60 |
236 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
TOTALS |
321 |
1359 |
9 |
6 |
9 |
However these are mere details, that are meaningless with no concept. What if groups with working backs whose jersey numbers are within the 20s fared poorly within the postseason? That might be dumb to quote as a result of there isn’t a rational concept that this primary truth would have any predictive validity. However my concept for playoff failure amongst groups with historic manufacturing from working backs is easy: they’re getting a bit of bit worse each week. Runners get beat up because the touches mount. It’s unattainable for them to be at their greatest in video games 18, 19, 20, 21. They’re spent.
If we take out Davis’ 468 postseason yards on 78 carries in his three profitable postseason video games in 1998, the opposite 9 working backs who superior within the postseason gained a mixed 3.7 yards per tote. Keep in mind, the defenses are higher within the playoffs, too. The teaching is best. Opponents make changes and make you beat them one other means. However the passing recreation requires apply. And groups with these historic dashing seasons are simply out of passing apply.
What about if we simply take a look at MVP working backs, the final being Adrian Peterson in 2012? Half of these groups had been one-and-done within the postseason. Along with Terrell Davis, Emmitt Smith’s Cowboys did win the Tremendous Bowl to cap their 1993 season. However Smith held out early and solely had 283 carries within the common season, 20 % lower than Barkley’s tempo. General, the postseason file of all these MVP RBs is 14-10 — hardly inspiring. And Barkley isn’t even the doubtless MVP, although he would’ve had a greater probability in many years previous. Since 2007, Peterson has been the one non-quarterback NFL MVP. However between 1996 and 2006, six working backs gained the award. Within the fashionable period, there’s way more quarterback bias.
But when Davis and Smith did it, why can’t Barkley? Properly, for one, that they had Corridor of Fame QBs to lean on. And neither staff was as rushing-reliant because the Eagles, up to now, in 2024.
The Eagles at the moment have extra dashing yards than passing yards, which may be very uncommon and usually deadly in January. The final staff with extra dashing yards than passing yards to win a Tremendous Bowl was the 1975 Steelers. Since then, there have been 25 playoff groups which have match that description. Their postseason file is 15-25. This century, the groups which have match that description are the 2019 and 2020 Ravens (Lamar Jackson), 2011 Broncos (Tim Tebow), 2009 Jets, 2005 Bears, 2004 Falcons and 2003 Ravens. These groups had been 5-7 within the postseason.
If I’m selecting between the Lions and Eagles as the most effective staff within the NFC, the distinction to me is the QB.
I must see extra from Jalen Hurts to rank Philadelphia over Detroit.
Extra, with @DMRussini: pic.twitter.com/T0UlTyBu24
— Chase Daniel (@ChaseDaniel) December 3, 2024
After all, this doesn’t imply you don’t need an ideal working again like Barkley. You need nice gamers wherever you may get them. However these working backs are usually the engine that drives the staff, and people engines simply have too many miles to fireside optimally as soon as the postseason begins. Meaning the quarterbacks and passing recreation, typically, have to select up the slack. Nevertheless it’s very troublesome to flip that change and lean on a quarterback and receivers who’ve been supporting gamers all season.
It’s not inconceivable that Barkley can stand up to the punishment higher than most and stay what he’s been, like Davis and Smith (three 100-yard postseason video games). Nonetheless, historical past says it’s unlikely.
Alternatively, there’s a staff with a working recreation practically as dominant because the Eagles the place the speculation of dominant runner decline doesn’t apply — the Tremendous Bowl-favorite Lions with their two-headed committee of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. That pair has practically equally divided their 329 mixed carries (the full-season tempo is about 230 rushes every, a few third lower than Barkley). The Lions even have 1,036 extra passing yards than dashing yards.
Thankfully for the Eagles, their first-round opponent, assuming they continue to be the No. 2 seed, appears sure to be the Commanders. Washington has one of many league’s worst dashing defenses. A key for the Eagles will probably be avoiding the Vikings (at the moment +1600 to win the Tremendous Bowl), who’ve one of many league’s high run defenses, permitting a paltry 3.7 yards per carry.
(High picture of Saquon Barkley: Invoice Streicher-Imagn Pictures)
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