PFF breaks down the Christmas Day matchups by trying on the groups’ data, key traits, and sport overviews earlier than delivering the perfect bets backed by PFF’s trusted betting mannequin.
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (-3) vs Pittsburgh Steelers [Total: 44]
Sport Overview
With the Chiefs only one win away from clinching the AFC’s No. 1 seed and home-field benefit all through the playoffs, they’ve picked the proper time to seek out their stride in betting markets. Kansas Metropolis has coated the unfold in every of its final two video games after failing to take action in seven consecutive matchups earlier this season.
Nevertheless, protecting as highway favorites stays a problem for the Chiefs, as they maintain a 2-2-1 ATS file away from Arrowhead this season.
Conversely, the Steelers endured a disappointing weekend, seeing their hopes of capturing the AFC’s prime seed vanish whereas opening the door for Baltimore to take management of the division. Pittsburgh has now didn’t cowl the unfold in consecutive video games as sizable highway underdogs, a stark shift from their 5-0 ATS file when receiving factors earlier than Week 13.
The stakes couldn’t be greater because the Steelers return house with a easy mission: win out to say the AFC North crown. Boasting a powerful 5-1 ATS file at house — their solely miss coming in Week 5 — anticipate Mike Tomlin’s squad to deliver most effort on this vital stretch.
QB Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers: Below 227.5 Passing yards (-113)
December has been unkind to Wilson, with the veteran quarterback incomes a 67.7 PFF passing grade because the begin of the month. Throughout this stretch, he has didn’t surpass this passing yardage line in three consecutive video games, averaging a mere 167 yards per contest.
This downturn aligns carefully with the absence of WR George Pickens, who has missed the previous three video games resulting from a hamstring harm and stays a game-time resolution on a brief week.
With out Pickens, the Chiefs’ protection unit is well-positioned to stifle the Steelers’ already restricted passing assault. The Kansas Metropolis protection ranks second in EPA allowed per dropback since December started, holding opponents to simply 6.5 yards per move try.
Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) vs Houston Texans [Total: 46.5]
Sport Overview
With a playoff berth locked in, the Ravens now purpose for the AFC North title. If Pittsburgh stumbles within the early Christmas Day matchup, Baltimore may have an opportunity to grab management of the division with only one sport left within the common season.
The Ravens have been a dependable crew in betting markets, posting a 3-1 ATS file over their previous 4 video games. This stretch consists of two covers as highway favorites, enhancing their season mark to 5-2 ATS when laying factors away from house.
With the AFC South title secured, the Texans at the moment are specializing in climbing to the AFC’s No. 3 seed. A Pittsburgh loss earlier within the day might present added motivation, as a win at house would give Houston the sting in convention victories and assist them keep away from a troublesome first-round playoff matchup towards the AFC North.
Houston has been underdogs at house simply as soon as this season, a slim loss to Detroit that ended on a game-winning subject purpose as time expired, although they managed to cowl as four-point canine. Nevertheless, Texans bettors have confronted combined leads to December, with the crew posting a 1-1-1 ATS file this month.
TE Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans: Over 34.5 receiving yards (-113)
The devastating harm to Tank Dell final week provides to a string of setbacks for the Texans’ receiver room, with Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and now Dell all lacking time this season. These absences have contributed to the passing sport’s inconsistency.
With Dell sidelined, Collins and Dalton Schultz might want to shoulder extra duty. Schultz has surpassed this receiving yardage line in two of his final three video games, showcasing his capability to step up when wanted.
Whereas the Ravens’ protection has improved with Kyle Hamilton patrolling the again finish, tight ends proceed to seek out success towards them. Baltimore has allowed a decent finish to exceed 34.5 receiving yards in 12 of 15 video games this season, making Schultz a powerful candidate to hit the over.
