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Estimated studying time: 6 minutes
Welcome to the newest installment of “Coach, I Was Open,” my ongoing statistics sequence, the place I construct and refine a mannequin to foretell targets for each route in each NFL recreation.
I created this mannequin utilizing route-level PFF knowledge to foretell the likelihood of every route being focused on each play within the NFL. This mannequin generates fascinating metrics comparable to “share of predicted targets” and “share of predicted air yards.” These metrics are extra secure and predictive than their precise counterparts.
The core concept behind creating this mannequin is {that a} participant is perhaps “incomes targets” by persistently getting open and working worthwhile routes however not receiving targets for numerous causes — comparable to quarterback strain, a misinterpret or the quarterback forcing the ball elsewhere. After reviewing the movie, groups could acknowledge that sure gamers have been open and alter their recreation plan to contain them extra in subsequent weeks.
Later, we have a look at why three elite gamers — A.J. Brown, Deebo Samuel and Tee Higgins — did not get the ball as a lot as they need to have in Week 14.
Week 14 Recap
Ja’Marr Chase delivered one other epic efficiency, incomes a season-high 18 targets and his second-best PPR complete of 45.1 factors.
Whereas Calvin Ridley and Wan’Dale Robinson didn’t produce large numbers, the mannequin precisely projected robust goal quantity for each, with Ridley seeing 12 targets and Robinson 11.
Rome Odunze didn’t rack up an enormous variety of targets, however he made them depend, securing two end-zone targets for touchdowns.
Josh Palmer, Ja’Marr Chase, and Christian Watson all completed with season-highs in targets.
IDENTIFYING BREAKOUT CANDIDATES FOR WEEK 14
A.J. Brown was the inspiration for the creation of the “Coach, I Was Open” mannequin, as we defined in my very first article. And as I touched on in my Route-Primarily based Heroes article, A.J. Brown has a strong matchup in opposition to the Steelers this week. If the Eagles can handle the Steelers’ go rush, I count on an enormous week from him.
Deebo Samuel has been the odd man out recently, with both Jauan Jennings or George Kittle taking the highlight — or all the 49ers offense struggling. The Rams have been common defensively total, however their poor tackling (per PFF’s crew tackling grade) presents a chance for Samuel. As a confirmed YAC celebrity, he may thrive if the 49ers get him the ball.
Tee Higgins was overshadowed by Ja’Marr Chase’s excellent efficiency final week. In Week 15, he faces the Titans, who’ve used middle-of-the-field-open (MOFO) protection on the eighth-highest fee since Week 9. Higgins excels in single-coverage conditions, however the Titans have allowed the sixth-fewest single-coverage alternatives over that span.
Season Leaders in Share of Predicted Targets
Right here’s this week’s up to date desk, and it’s a notable one — now we have our very first tight finish on the leaderboard! Trey McBride has been dominating the Cardinals’ Share of Predicted Targets, clearly exhibiting how closely Arizona’s offense is designed to get the ball into his palms and the way a lot he stands out in comparison with the opposite receivers on the crew.
In the meantime, Jalen Hurts is in a powerful place, benefiting from two of the perfect receivers within the NFL at getting open. Nevertheless, with a PFF passing grade of simply 66.5 this season (twenty seventh within the NFL, minimal 200 dropbacks), there’s loads of room for enchancment in his efficiency.
Week 14: Reievers getting open
Brown ran 14 routes with a goal likelihood above 30% however solely acquired 4 targets (bear in mind, my goal knowledge consists of each play except the participant was concerned in a penalty). This tied for the most important hole of the week between robust route chances and precise targets — usually an indicator of a possible goal improve forward.
One in all these routes is highlighted beneath. Brown had a 54% likelihood of being focused on this play however wasn’t. It got here on first-and-10 from midfield, with the Eagles seeking to rating earlier than halftime.
Hurts held onto the ball on this play, as he has usually performed this season. He leads the NFL in common time to throw (3.2 seconds) amongst quarterbacks with not less than 100 dropbacks.
The consequence was a checkdown to Kenneth Gainwell for a two-yard achieve. This play simply may have gone for seven or extra yards had Hurts focused Brown — and if Brown broke a deal with, the achieve may have been a lot larger.
Not All Hurts’ Fault
This play came about later within the third quarter on a vital third-and-2, with the Eagles trailing 16-14. Whereas it’s unclear whether or not the play was referred to as as-is or adjusted on the line, it was a full-on shot play for a short-yardage scenario. The design featured three deep routes, all of which ultimately acquired huge open. Nevertheless, Cam Jurgens was overwhelmed badly by A’Shawn Robinson, and with no checkdown or brief choices accessible, Hurts had nowhere to go and was sacked.
Because the sack occurred, each A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith broke free downfield. Assigning blame right here is hard, given we don’t know why the play relied solely on deep routes in a third-and-short scenario whereas trailing. Regardless, it’s clear that this one can’t be pinned fully on Hurts.
Quarterback Choice Making – Week 14
The Predicted Targets Mannequin permits us to judge a quarterback’s efficiency over a single recreation, a sequence of video games and even a whole season. This mannequin analyzes each route on each play, calculating the likelihood {that a} given participant might be focused based mostly on elements comparable to openness, PFF grade, degree of separation and extra. By leveraging this route-level knowledge, we are able to decide whether or not the quarterback made an optimum resolution. I filtered the entire knowledge solely to performs the place there have been not less than two routes on a play in order that the QB needed to decide.
To simplify the evaluation, I categorized each resolution into three distinct classes:
- Optimum Choice: The quarterback threw to the participant with the best goal likelihood.
- Suboptimal Choice: The quarterback threw to a participant who didn’t have the best goal likelihood.
- Dangerous Choice: The quarterback threw to the participant with the bottom goal likelihood.
Justin Herbert lastly began making unbelievable selections, however the Chiefs have been sadly an excessive amount of to beat.
Will Levis, Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson all had unhealthy resolution charges above 20% on the week, whereas Herbert and Sam Darnold had above 80% optimum resolution charges with wildly totally different recreation outcomes.
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