Welcome to the most recent installment of “Coach, I Was Open,” my ongoing statistics sequence, the place I construct and refine a mannequin to foretell targets for each route in each NFL recreation.
I created this mannequin utilizing route-level PFF information to foretell the chance of every route being focused on each play within the NFL. This mannequin generates attention-grabbing metrics akin to “share of predicted targets” and “share of predicted air yards.” These metrics are extra steady and predictive than their precise counterparts.
The core thought behind creating this mannequin is {that a} participant could be “incomes targets” by constantly getting open and operating precious routes however not receiving targets for numerous causes — akin to quarterback strain, a misinterpret or the quarterback forcing the ball elsewhere. After reviewing the movie, groups might acknowledge that sure gamers had been open and regulate their recreation plan to contain them extra in subsequent weeks.
Later, we talk about Kirk Cousins and the way he held again the Falcons‘ offensive weapons earlier than being benched this week.
Week 15 Recap
The mannequin recognized three gamers who ended up recording season highs in targets: A.J. Brown, Xavier Worthy and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Tight finish Jonnu Smith‘s 11 targets tied his season excessive, Tee Higgins had a stable eight targets and Deebo Samuel recorded seven targets.
Drake London completed final week with a stable 17.6% goal share, however that amounted to solely three targets attributable to Kirk Cousins making an attempt simply 17 passes.
IDENTIFYING BREAKOUT CANDIDATES FOR WEEK 16
Three Falcons gamers present up on the checklist this week with Michael Penix Jr. set to make his first NFL begin at quarterback. Darnell Mooney had a fully large distinction in his Week 15 goal share and share of predicted targets (.18). However with the change at quarterback, I might be weary of the mannequin because the offense might endure an enormous change.
As mentioned in our “Route-Primarily based Heroes” article, DK Metcalf has an OK matchup however typically doesn’t excel versus middle-of-field-open coverages, which the Vikings run so much.
Tank Dell is an attention-grabbing title on this week’s checklist since he’s additionally a route-based hero and has an incredible single-coverage matchup. I might not be shocked to see Dell earn a season excessive in targets this week.
Season Leaders in Share of Predicted Targets
Not an excessive amount of has modified week over week. The largest shock is that Cooper Kupp continues to be forward of Puka Nacua with out producing in addition to Nacua.
Quarterback Resolution Making — Week 15
The Predicted Targets Mannequin permits us to guage a quarterback’s efficiency over a single recreation, a sequence of video games and even a complete season. This mannequin analyzes each route on each play, calculating the chance {that a} given participant might be focused based mostly on components akin to openness, PFF grade, stage of separation and extra. By leveraging this route-level information, we will decide whether or not the quarterback made an optimum determination. I filtered the info solely to performs the place there have been no less than two routes, which means the quarterback needed to decide.
To simplify the evaluation, I categorized each determination into three distinct classes:
- Optimum Resolution: The quarterback threw to the participant with the best goal chance.
- Suboptimal Resolution: The quarterback threw to a participant who didn’t have the best goal chance.
- Dangerous Resolution: The quarterback threw to the participant with the bottom goal chance.
Kirk Cousins is the speak of the week after being benched. My mannequin exhibits that Cousins made the optimum determination solely 53.8% of the time and made an outright unhealthy determination 23.1% of the time — which led the NFL in Week 15. The Falcons have speedy playoff hopes and can’t afford to depend on this stage of decision-making or offensive execution at this level within the season.
On this play, Bijan Robinson and Ross Dwelley each ran fast smoke display routes and had been large open. Darnell Mooney finally ends up being large open on a hitch, too. Drake London is barely extra coated however nonetheless open within the NFL. Cousins as an alternative throws it to Charlie Woerner, who has the least quantity of separation on the play and was the one participant categorized as “not open.” The play resulted in an interception. There actually is not any means round this being an terrible determination.
This subsequent play will not be particularly about Cousins’ decision-making. On second-and-6, the Raiders find yourself sending all-out strain. The Falcons have many wide-open receivers, however Cousins merely can not keep away from the frenzy and throws a lame-duck incompletion.
With Cousins’ age, the present state of his arm and his mobility, he has to make up for his bodily deficiencies with psychological aptitude. However performs like this present that that’s simpler mentioned than completed.
This play bothered me, because the announcers praised Cousins for making a very good determination to throw to London on a 5-yard out path to get the primary down. Nevertheless, they didn’t acknowledge Ray Ray McCloud operating large open in the course of the sector for what might have been a 20-plus-yard acquire — at a minimal. It might have additionally been considerably simpler on the Falcons as an alternative of needing to depend on Drake London to make an incredible play on the sideline.
Sorry if I appear harsh on Cousins this week, however there’s a clear motive he was benched. It was merely time. On the season, Cousins has the 18th-ranked PFF passing grade amongst quarterbacks with no less than 250 dropbacks. Since Week 10, he ranks third worst.
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