The Faculty Soccer Playoff area was revealed on Sunday, and with that got here the chances for the 4 first-round video games. On paper, they aren’t anticipated to be all that shut, as all 4 spreads opened with the house group favored by a minimum of a landing.
The 4 first-round video games happen on Dec. 20 and Dec. 21 on the campuses of the higher seeds. No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Boise State and No. 4 Arizona State acquired byes into the quarterfinals, which will probably be performed at bowl venues.
When you like winter soccer playoff video games, this first-round draw is for you. Austin, Texas, is the one metropolis of the 4 internet hosting a first-round sport the place climate is unlikely to affect the sport. The opposite three are within the Midwest, with two of these, Ohio State and Notre Dame, internet hosting at night time in late December. Bundle up!
The listed level totals for all 4 video games are fairly low. Ohio State-Tennessee is within the mid-40s, whereas the opposite three are within the low 50s. Don’t count on shootouts in these video games.
In case you are on the lookout for perception on how the drama may play out, Austin Mock’s Faculty Soccer Playoff projections give a share probability for every group to make every spherical of the 12-team bracket.
Right here’s a deeper take a look at all 4 first-round video games.
No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas
Texas solely fell to No. 5 within the seeds after dropping to Georgia in extra time within the SEC Championship Recreation. The Longhorns get ACC champion Clemson within the first spherical and are the most important favourite of the primary spherical, opening at -10.5 factors.
On paper, it is sensible the 5-12 matchup can be the widest unfold of the bunch. Whereas that is the matchup that causes a ton of upsets within the school basketball event, will that apply in school soccer as nicely?
The Longhorns had been a part of the four-team area final yr and are the one group of that group, which included Michigan, Washington and Alabama, to make the 12-team area this yr. On prime of that have, Texas has a dynamic receiving group, a veteran quarterback in Quinn Ewers (plus an uber-talented backup in Arch Manning) and among the best defenses within the nation.
Texas is second within the nation in scoring protection (12.5 factors) and goes up towards a Clemson offense that ranks twelfth within the nation in complete offense (454.9 yards). The Tigers have been a robust offense general however struggled towards the 2 different SEC groups on their schedule. Georgia held the Tigers to a few factors within the season opener, and South Carolina received 17-14 at Clemson to shut out the common season.
That is the first-ever matchup between these two packages.
No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State
SMU obtained within the area regardless of dropping the ACC Championship Recreation, however the Mustangs’ keep might be transient. Penn State opened as an 8.5-point favourite.
The Nittany Lions pushed Oregon within the Massive Ten Championship Recreation however in the end had no reply for Dillon Gabriel’s offense. Kevin Jennings’ SMU offense isn’t as feared as Oregon’s, however does common extra factors. The Mustangs are sixth within the nation in scoring offense (38.5 factors).
Penn State nonetheless has one of the crucial gifted defenses within the nation however dropped within the nationwide rankings after giving up 45 factors and 469 yards to Oregon. Even after that sport, the Nittany Lions rank eighth in scoring protection (16.4 factors per sport) and sixth in yards allowed per sport (282.1).
SMU obtained off to a brutal begin towards Clemson, falling behind 24-7 at halftime, however the Mustangs outgained the Tigers 458-326 in that sport. Jennings, a sophomore quarterback who took the job from incumbent starter Preston Stone, has accounted for 27 touchdowns this season with 3,050 passing yards and 379 yards on the bottom.
Unsurprisingly, there isn’t a lot matchup historical past between these two colleges. Penn State picked up a 26-21 dwelling win in 1978, and so they additionally performed to a tie within the 1948 Cotton Bowl.
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame
Notre Dame vs. Indiana isn’t what you consider so far as marquee matchups in soccer, however the Hoosiers have had a record-setting season to arrange an in-state first-round assembly. Can arguably the very best group in Indiana historical past go into South Bend and get a win? It will likely be a troublesome job. The Combating Irish opened as an 8.5-point favourite.
Regardless of being in the identical state and separated by a roughly three-hour drive, IU and ND haven’t performed since 1991. The final six conferences had been all in South Bend, and Notre Dame received all of them by a minimum of 18 factors. IU’s final win towards the Irish got here in 1950, which was additionally the final time the groups met in Bloomington.
South Bend is the northernmost host metropolis of the 4 first-round video games, and this sport is ready for an 8 p.m. ET kickoff. This sport has an honest probability to characteristic frigid temperatures or doubtlessly even some lake-effect snow.
If the climate is lower than supreme, often known as a typical late December day within the Midwest, each of those defenses ought to be in a scenario to thrive. For as a lot consideration as Kurtis Rourke and the Indiana offense have acquired, the protection has been the higher unit statistically. IU is second within the nation in yards allowed per sport (244.8). In the meantime, Notre Dame is just not far behind in eighth (296.8).
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State
Ohio State followers are most likely nonetheless stewing on the loss to Michigan, however the Buckeyes have an enormous sport coming to Columbus. The Buckeyes opened as a touchdown-favorite towards Tennessee.
The Buckeyes and Volunteers each have elite defenses. Ohio State is the nationwide chief in each factors allowed per sport (10.9) and yards allowed per sport (241.1). Tennessee is tied for fourth in factors allowed (13.9) and is fourth in yards allowed (278). Throw in winter climate in Ohio, and this one unsurprisingly has the bottom listed level complete of the 4 first-round video games.
The vibes round these two packages are very completely different coming into the CFP. OSU coach Ryan Day is on the recent seat in Columbus and will use a win or two to maintain his job secure. If Day loses one other large dwelling sport, issues may get ugly.
The considered a coach being on the recent seat after making the CFP is a brand new twist within the 12-team period. That’s what occurs whenever you lose to your rival for a fourth-straight yr, with the final one coming towards a 6-5 group that was barely purposeful at quarterback.
Tennessee has a gifted quarterback in Nico Iamaleava, however the redshirt freshman threw for fewer than 200 yards on seven events this season. Working again Dylan Sampson has been the Vols’ workhorse with 1,485 yards. Each will want massive video games towards the Buckeyes’ stout defensive unit.
In the meantime, OSU must deal with Tennessee’s nasty defensive position that options potential first-round choose James Pearce Jr. OSU quarterback Will Howard threw two picks towards Michigan and can possible should play higher towards a protection that might be even more durable.
The one time these packages met was within the 1996 Florida Citrus Bowl, which the Vols received 20-14.
(Photograph of Quinn Ewers: Butch Dill/Getty Photographs)
