Again in 2016 — an eon in the past in faculty soccer phrases — Alabama and Clemson squared off within the title recreation of the second Faculty Soccer Playoff. That nationwide championship recreation in Arizona was a type of traditional big-on-big battles, a heavyweight title combat that was tied at 24-24 early within the fourth quarter. Then Alabama did the sudden, exploiting a gap in Clemson’s particular groups by kicking a shock onside kick. The Tide recovered the kick, scored, and by no means trailed once more.
Practically 9 years later, Clemson has a possibility to drag an identical reversal on Alabama this weekend, and identical to that night time in 2016, no one noticed it coming.
In some way, 9-3 Clemson, ranked seventeenth within the CFP bracket and 18th within the AP High 25, is enjoying for a convention championship and the precise to a assured playoff berth. The Tigers are roughly 2.5-point underdogs to SMU, however that’s irrelevant; as we’ve seen the previous couple of weeks, strains don’t matter a bit after kickoff.
You’re going to listen to the phrases “model bias” loads over the subsequent few days, and that’s as a result of the CFP choice committee opted to leap three-loss Alabama over two-loss Miami for, successfully, the ultimate spot within the CFP bracket. Alabama has a historical past of favorable therapy from the faculty soccer elite, most lately final yr when the one-loss Tide leaped undefeated Florida State for the ultimate spot within the last four-team playoff. (FSU hasn’t been the identical group since, the poor damaged ‘Noles.)
Maybe it’s a long-standing make-up name for denying Alabama deserved acclaim again within the Sixties. (The school soccer institution successfully punished the state of Alabama for having a great soccer group in a racist society.) Or maybe it’s simply that houndstooth-and-Course of crimson mist that’s clouding everybody’s imaginative and prescient, no matter how good this specific lost-to-Vanderbilt squad is.
Nevertheless it’s not simply Alabama who will likely be eyeing the ACC championship Saturday night time. At stake right here is the ACC’s total popularity and the CFP choice committee’s validity. Is a three-loss convention champion the perfect the ACC can do? Does a three-loss convention champion should leap into the playoff over half a dozen higher groups? Does a three-loss SEC group should be within the area over one, and presumably two, two-loss ACC groups?
After which there’s this hypothetical: Ought to a faculty — on this case, SMU — be penalized for reaching a championship recreation and dropping? Ought to Alabama get to carry onto its spot whereas doing as a lot to enhance its playoff standing this weekend as you’re?
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Warde Manuel, the CFP choice committee chair and shortly to be essentially the most hated man in a number of states, answered the SMU-over-Bama hypothetical with an ominous dodge: “That’s one thing that we’ll determine within the room on the conclusion of these video games after we consider what occurs within the championship. I can not form of go into the longer term and let you know precisely how the end result of that dialogue will likely be. It is dependent upon the end result of the sport and the way it’s performed and the outcomes themselves.”
Uh oh. There are holes in that assertion extensive sufficient to run an elephant by. Manuel later added that, sure, it’s potential SMU might fall beneath Alabama.
So let’s take into account the potential “outcomes themselves.” There are 4 situations at play right here:
Clemson loses. Or “SMU wins,” nonetheless you need to phrase it. The simplest potential end result for the CFP committee — and Bama too, for that matter. If Clemson loses, that’s it, they’re out of the CFP hunt. There’s no path for a four-loss ACC group to achieve the playoffs, not even when Clemson takes SMU to 50 overtimes. Clemson out, Alabama in.
(Aspect word: The CFP committee made it clear that Miami can’t bounce Alabama. “There’s not one other datapoint as a result of they are not enjoying within the championship video games. So we do not have the rest so as to add to the analysis of these groups, so we won’t transfer them above or beneath one another.” Make of that what you’ll.)
Clemson wins by a 7-10 level margin. The Tigers get the ACC’s computerized bid and doubtlessly transfer forward of Arizona State and/or Boise State within the last rankings, giving Clemson a first-round bye. With a stable and competent efficiency, SMU doubtless clings to the ultimate at-large bid, and Alabama is out.
Clemson barely wins, by a area purpose or in additional time. The Tigers get the ACC’s computerized bid, however — relying on what occurs elsewhere within the nation — doubtless don’t get the first-round bye, and begin the CFP on the street, doubtlessly in Columbus (Ohio State), South Bend (Notre Dame) or Knoxville (Tennessee). A noble effort nonetheless will get SMU the final at-large bid over Alabama.
Clemson wins in an absolute blowout. Right here we go. It’s unlikely, however think about the Tigers dropping a 49-3 stomping on the Mustangs in pleasant territory. Clemson will get in and sure snags a first-round bye. SMU might fall all the way in which out of the playoff bracket though Alabama did precisely nothing to bolster its trigger.
So there you go. One recreation, ripple results for bids and byes throughout faculty soccer. As is at all times the case on this sport, chaos abounds. However then, not less than we’re not speaking about No. 4 vs. No. 5 seeds anymore, are we?
