• Texas–Ohio State: The Longhorns and Buckeyes meet within the Cotton Bowl, a sport that options the very best secondary in America (Texas) in opposition to the very best receiving corps (Ohio State).
• Penn State–Notre Dame: The Nittany Lions and Combating Irish sq. off within the Orange Bowl the place each groups will attempt to win off of protection and their dashing assaults.
• 2025 NFL Draft season is right here: Attempt PFF’s best-in-class Mock Draft Simulator and study 2025’s prime prospects whereas buying and selling and drafting in your favourite NFL group.
Estimated studying time: 16 minutes
The inaugural 12-team playoff has been whittled all the way down to its earlier dimension of 4. Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame and Ohio State all superior to the semifinals after profitable a first-round sport at dwelling earlier than toppling one of many top-four seeds within the quarterfinals.
We’ve determined to make our previews for the playoff extra expansive than ever earlier than. Now, we’ll be diving into two matchups to observe for every offense in these video games, one for the passing sport and one for the working sport. And naturally, we’ll be predicting who will advance to the nationwide championship as properly.
No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. No. 7 Notre Dame Combating Irish (Orange Bowl on Thursday at 7:30 PM EST on ESPN)
Penn State’s go sport in opposition to Notre Dame’s go protection (Max): Tyler Warren in opposition to the Combating Irish’s safeties
Notre Dame’s secondary ought to have an enormous benefit over Penn State’s large receivers on this sport. The Combating Irish have the third-best protection grade within the Energy 4 when a large receiver is focused (90.3) whereas the Nittany Lions solely goal their wideouts 35.2% of the time (the bottom price within the Energy 4). Notre Dame runs man protection at one of many highest charges within the nation (56.7%) and Penn State’s large receivers have notoriously struggled to realize separation this season.
The Nittany Lions’ receiving corps has been buoyed by its famous person tight finish, Tyler Warren. The John Mackey Award winner leads all Energy 4 tight ends in virtually each receiving class, together with however not restricted to grade (93.3), yards (1,158), touchdowns (eight) and yards after the catch (655). He averages 77.2 receiving yards per sport whereas no different Penn State wideout even cracks 50 yards.
Suffice to say, the Combating Irish are going to be targeted on slowing down No. 44. Fortuitously for them, they’ve glorious safeties who is perhaps as much as the duty. Notre Dame’s safeties as a gaggle are third within the FBS in protection grade (91.4). The Combating Irish have allowed only a 46.1 passer score when a decent finish was focused this season, second amongst FBS defenses. Whereas Xavier Watts is their star security, Adon Shuler has been the one most frequently tasked with protecting tight ends one-on-one, permitting Watts to roam as a centerfielder. Shuler has carried out an excellent job in that function, posting an 89.2 protection grade in opposition to tight ends whereas solely permitting 50% of targets to be caught.
If Warren’s unable to proceed his dominance in opposition to Notre Dame, it could possibly be a protracted evening for Penn State’s passing assault.
Penn State’s run sport in opposition to Notre Dame’s run protection (Dalton): Can Penn State proceed its dominance when in 12 personnel?
Via its Week 10 loss to Ohio State, Penn State deployed 12 personnel at a fairly excessive price, rating twenty fifth within the nation of their utilization of it. After that defeat, which was the Nittany Lions’ fourth straight sport with fewer than 180 dashing yards, they determined to ramp up the utilization of it to get extra our bodies concerned within the run sport, which has paid massive dividends.
Penn State in 12 personnel since Week 11:
| Utilization Charge | 58% (Third) |
| Yards per Carry | 5.7 (18th) |
| Explosive Runs | 26 (First) |
| Rush TDs | 14 (First) |
Penn State has gone from a roughly 35% utilization price of 12 personnel to an extremely excessive 58% because the Ohio State sport. When the Nittany Lions have two tight ends on the sector, they’ve used much more exterior zone schemes down the stretch than the standard duo schemes they used early within the season.
Operating the soccer is as a lot a numbers sport as it’s about creating motion up entrance. Having a number of efficient tight ends on the sector reminiscent of Tyler Warren and Khalil Dinkins creates a mess of points for a defensive entrance, particularly when having to account for Warren’s elite receiving potential.
Unusually, Notre Dame has confronted the fifth-lowest share of 12 personnel formations within the FBS. The Combating Irish have carried out a pleasant job in run protection after they have seen it, however they’ve but to see anybody deploy it almost as typically or successfully because the Nittany Lions have this season. Penn State ranks sixth within the nation in offensive grade on run performs when in 12 personnel, the very best of any group the Combating Irish have performed this season.
Notre Dame’s go sport in opposition to Penn State’s go protection (Dalton): Riley Leonard vs. Penn State’s single-high coverages
As is the case for Notre Dame’s protection, Penn State is thought to deploy a heavy dosage of single-high coverages. The Nittany Lions have elevated that utilization within the playoff in opposition to SMU and Boise State, working single-high defenses at a roughly 70% clip in these two video games. They’ve additionally elevated their Cowl 1 price to 52.5%, as they’ve felt assured of their secondary to cowl these groups’ weapons.
They need to really feel equally assured in opposition to Notre Dame, whose large receivers rank 83rd in receiving grade. Due partly to that lack of manufacturing, Riley Leonard has struggled when going through single-high defenses this season. Of the 125 passers who’ve thrown at the very least 100 passes with the center of the sector closed, Leonard is tied for 107th with a 61.6 passing grade.
Leonard’s 6.3 yards per try and seven.1-yard common depth of goal additionally rank close to the underside of that group. His receivers have had bother separating downfield and the group has had bother constantly attacking down the center of the sector.
Penn State makes use of these coverages much more on early downs, however like SMU and Boise State, Notre Dame throws at a properly below-average price on first and second downs. Leonard was capable of finding effectiveness as a runner in opposition to Georgia to maneuver the chains, however in some unspecified time in the future on this sport, he could must make some early down throws into single-high coverages to pressure the Nittany Lions to respect his arm.
Notre Dame’s run sport in opposition to Penn State’s run protection (Max): Can the Nittany Lions win on the line of scrimmage to make up for any tackling woes?
As Dalton illustrated final week, Penn State’s had some main points bringing down ballcarriers this season. The Nittany Lions have missed a sort out on 17% of performs this season, the fourth-worst price within the Energy 4. Usually, that might’ve spelled massive bother within the quarterfinal in opposition to Ashton Jeanty since he set the single-season PFF Faculty report for pressured missed tackles (151).
As an alternative, Penn State held the Heisman Trophy runner-up to a season-low 104 dashing yards regardless of Jeanty nonetheless forcing 16 missed tackles, his third-most within the season. The rationale for that’s the Nittany Lions dominated on the line of scrimmage, permitting simply 0.6 yards earlier than contact per try whereas Boise State completed with a season-worst 45.4 run-blocking grade.
This isn’t a brand new pattern both. The Nittany Lions are fifteenth amongst FBS defenses with simply 1.1 yards earlier than contact per try allowed whereas opponents have only a 40.9 run-blocking grade in opposition to them.
Notre Dame’s dashing assault has been nice each earlier than and after contact which is why the Combating Irish third within the FBS when it comes to EPA per run (0.225). Notre Dame leads the Energy 4 with 4.2 yards after contact per try whereas inserting seventh in run-blocking grade (75.9). In its 4 video games in opposition to an opponent with a top-25 run-defense grade although, the Combating Irish posted only a 54.8 run-blocking grade.
Notre Dame has a three-headed monster in its backfield between Jeremiyah Love, Jadarian Value and quarterback Riley Leonard. With a view to keep away from getting gashed by them, Penn State must win the battle within the trenches and swarm to the soccer, simply because it did in its final sport in opposition to Boise State.
Predictions
Max: Penn State 21, Notre Dame 20
This sport must be a rock combat because the defenses dominate whereas each offenses look to determine the run. When every group wants their quarterback to make a big-time throw, I belief Drew Allar to take action greater than Riley Leonard. The Nittany Lions take down the Combating Irish and advance to their first nationwide championship sport in program historical past.
Dalton: Notre Dame 23, Penn State 20
Notre Dame managed its manner by the Georgia sport with Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Value combining for simply 56 yards. Penn State is arguably the least worrisome of the run defenses the Combating Irish have confronted on this playoff, particularly with their tackling points. In addition they proceed to show they’re the very best man protection group within the nation. I’ll take them in an in depth sport as they earn their first nationwide title berth since 2012.
No. 5 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes (Cotton Bowl on Friday at 7:30 PM EST on ESPN)
Texas’ go sport in opposition to Ohio State’s go protection (Dalton): Quinn Ewers vs. Jim Knowles’ new favourite protection
Among the many philosophical modifications that Ohio State has made throughout this playoff run is a change in the way it combine its coverages on protection. Throughout his three seasons because the Buckeyes’ defensive coordinator, Jim Knowles has primarily used single-high defenses in an effort to stifle typically run-heavy opponents within the Large Ten.
Through the group’s two playoff video games, Knowles has deployed his unit in Cowl 2 most frequently at a 25.5% utilization price. That quantity alone isn’t some groundbreaking discovery contemplating the Buckeyes’ opponents, Tennessee and Oregon, but it surely’s the way in which that they’ve structured it that has been making an influence.
Usually, the Buckeyes would run a Tampa-2 scheme in a conventional look the place Caleb Downs and Lathan Ransom every occupy a deep half of the sector and a linebacker carries any seam route between them. These days, they’ve been deploying slot cornerback Jordan Hancock as a deep-half security whereas Downs has been taking part in the Tampa function lurking over the center of the sector.
Previous to the playoff, Hancock had performed simply 89 snaps all season lined up at free security. Over the previous two video games, he’s almost matched that with 79. He’s held his personal on the again finish stopping deep pictures whereas Downs has been capable of defend the seams and play at a brief sufficient depth to assist in run help.
Quinn Ewers and the Texas passing sport have struggled at instances in opposition to two-high-safety defenses this season. In opposition to Cowl 2 particularly, Ewers owns only a 55.8 passing grade with 5 turnover-worthy performs throughout 56 dropbacks in opposition to it this season.
As a group, Texas ranks simply 51st in offensive grade in opposition to two-high defenses in comparison with fifth when it sees only one deep security.
Ohio State has been capable of stifle the RPOs and straightforward throws that have been featured within the offenses of their first two playoff opponents. Anticipate the Buckeyes to aim extra of the identical and pressure Quinn Ewers into difficult the nation’s highest-graded security unit.
Texas’ run sport in opposition to Ohio State’s run protection (Max): The Longhorns’ outside-zone heavy scheme in opposition to the Buckeye protection that’s elite at conserving comprise
When you’re going to stall Texas’ floor sport and put the ball into Quinn Ewers’ palms, you higher be able to win on the skin. That’s as a result of the Longhorns have known as exterior zone on over one-third of their dashing makes an attempt this season (34%), the Seventeenth-highest price in America. Outdoors zone is designed to get the protection transferring laterally and problem the sting of the protection. It’s then the working again’s job to seek out the place the protection is weakest, typically studying the sting defender to see if he ought to proceed exterior or bounce it again inside.
The idea labored fantastically in Texas’ first-round sport in opposition to Clemson, which was a significant purpose the Longhorns received by a number of scores. It didn’t work as properly in opposition to Arizona State within the quarterfinal, a sport by which Texas squeaked by in double extra time.
Texas on exterior zone in its two playoff video games:
| Recreation | EPA per play | Speeding Yards | Speeding touchdowns | Yards per try |
| Clemson | 0.579 | 249 | 2 | 10.8 |
| Arizona State | -0.332 | 15 | 0 | 1.7 |
A significant purpose for the cut up could possibly be proper sort out Cameron Williams’ absence in opposition to the Solar Devils. The projected first-round decide has an 84.5 run-blocking grade on exterior zone this season, 14th amongst FBS tackles. His alternative, Trevor Goosby, is 251st in that very same group with only a 52.1 mark. Whereas Williams missed the Peach Bowl with a proper knee sprain, he at the very least was a restricted participant in apply main as much as the sport which factors to a possible return in opposition to Ohio State.
The Longhorns will possible want their star proper sort out in opposition to the Buckeyes’ elite protection, particularly contemplating how properly Ohio State’s contained exterior zone this season. In reality, the Buckeyes lead the Energy 4 with a 90.7 run-defense grade in opposition to that idea whereas solely permitting 0.2 yards earlier than contact per try on such performs. Linebacker Cody Simon has been terrific in opposition to exterior zone, inserting third amongst FBS linebackers with an 89.9 run-defense grade. As for Ohio State’s edge defenders, JT Tuimoloau is first amongst FBS edges with an 86.4 run-defense grade in opposition to that idea whereas Jack Sawyer isn’t too far behind at sixth (82.4).
Texas’ two first-round offensive tackles (Kelvin Banks Jr. and Williams) in opposition to Ohio State’s incredible edge defenders in Tuimoloau and Sawyer will possible decide how a lot success the Longhorns discover on the bottom.
Ohio State’s go sport in opposition to Texas’ go protection (Max): The very best receiver corps within the nation versus the very best secondary within the nation
Seize your popcorn. That is arguably essentially the most star-studded matchup of the complete season.
Ohio State averaged 0.498 EPA per go of their wins over Tennessee and Oregon within the playoff whereas averaging 0.273 the remainder of the season. One thing appears to have clicked for the Buckeyes, and that one thing is the 19-year-old phenom they’ve in Jeremiah Smith. Whereas the highest total recruit within the 2024 class had a terrific true freshman season exterior of the playoff, he’s grow to be virtually unrecoverable not too long ago.
Jeremiah Smith throughout two playoff video games:
| Receiving grade | Receptions | Receiving yards | Receiving touchdowns | Yards per route run |
| 90.8 | 13 | 290 | 4 | 5.58 |
Remember that the Volunteers and Geese are every among the many nation’s 30 greatest groups when it comes to protection grade. Mix that with the truth that the Robin to Smith’s Batman, Emeka Ebuka, is a projected first-round decide within the 2025 NFL Draft and also you get a receiving corps that virtually each secondary within the nation can’t deal with.
Besides possibly Texas. The Longhorns lead the nation with a 92.5 protection grade this season with three gamers from its secondary incomes 85-plus grades: cornerback Jahdae Barron and safeties Andrew Mukuba/Michael Taaffe. Texas leads the FBS with a 59.8 passer score allowed whereas inserting third in explosive go price allowed (9.3%).
The Longhorns solely run man protection 16.7% of the time, spending the overwhelming majority of the time in zone protection. Smith’s 763 receiving yards in opposition to zone are second to solely Heisman Trophy-winner Travis Hunter amongst Energy 4 go catchers although, whereas Ohio State owns the third-best receiving grade in America in opposition to zone protection.
Not solely does this matchup characteristic superstars on either side, it might very properly resolve who advances to the nationwide championship sport.
Ohio State’s run sport in opposition to Texas’ run protection (Dalton): Texas’ entrance in opposition to Chip Kelly’s new favourite run scheme
Coming off of an embarrassing loss to Michigan by which they ran for simply 73 designed yards, the Buckeyes knew they wanted to discover a approach to run the soccer successfully regardless of an offensive line that’s been battered with accidents. That they had three weeks to organize for the Tennessee sport, and in that point, they discovered a approach to fully overhaul their schemes to seek out some degree of effectivity on the bottom.
Chip Kelly has all the time been often known as a grasp of zone-run schemes. From Oregon to the Philadelphia Eagles to UCLA and eventually Ohio State, Kelly’s model of simplified zone working and quick tempo have all the time been a staple. That manufacturing slowed down late within the season, so he’s now gone to a totally totally different method within the playoff.
Through the common season, Ohio State ran counter schemes simply 10% of the time, a bit beneath the nationwide common. Throughout its two playoff video games, that quantity has skyrocketed to 49%. For reference, USC leads the nation this season with 38% of its run performs being counter schemes. The payoff for the Buckeyes is obvious within the manufacturing.
Ohio State counter schemes in playoff:
| Rush Makes an attempt | 30 |
| Speeding Grade | 76.9 |
| Yards per Carry | 7.3 |
| Touchdowns | 3 |
| Explosive Runs | 6 |
Not solely have the Buckeyes run a brand new scheme within the playoff, however they’ve additionally carried out it with nice effectivity. In the event that they proceed to create explosive runs at a 20% price, they grow to be almost unstoppable. They’ve additionally been including play-action ideas working off of counter motion, together with on two of Jeremiah Smith’s 4 touchdowns over the previous two weeks, that make them much more harmful.
Texas has seen simply 55 counter makes an attempt this season. The Longhorns have posted an 83.8 run-defense grade on these snaps, however that may be a very small pattern. The hardest a part of preparation this week received’t be what little they’ve already seen from Ohio State working these schemes. It is going to be making an attempt to guess what the subsequent layers that Chip Kelly might be including as his offense continues to morph behind a makeshift offensive line.
Predictions
Max: Ohio State 30, Texas 21
One thing snapped within the Buckeyes after their loss to Michigan. In its two dominant playoff wins over Tennessee and Oregon, Ohio State has lastly seemed like the very best group within the nation like their uber-talented roster indicated it will be. The Longhorns are possible going to wish almost flawless soccer from Quinn Ewers to win this sport, a harmful proposition contemplating his rollercoaster playstyle. The Buckeyes win the Cotton Bowl and advance to their first nationwide title sport since 2020 after they misplaced to Alabama.
Dalton: Ohio State 31, Texas 24
Ohio State is driving the right degree of preparation and execution up to now on this playoff. Texas will be the final group within the nation with an opportunity at containing Jeremiah Smith. If the Longhorns are going to win, they’ll possible want the very best sport of Quinn Ewers’ profession in an effort to do it. He’s proven flashes not too long ago, however they want the complete 60 minutes. The Buckeyes are working too sizzling proper now, although, and so they safe a spot within the nationwide championship sport.
