Fantasy Soccer: Inspecting the framework of the 2024 RB1s

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Estimated Studying Time: 10 minutes


As a way to establish points-per-reception (PPR) RB1 candidates for the 2025 NFL season, fantasy managers should first study the 2024 PPR RB1, Weeks 1-17 outcomes.

The article under particulars the 2024 PPR RB1 class’ offensive atmosphere, snap counts, contact counts, staff contact shares and effectivity metrics. Very similar to the 2024 PPR WR1 group, detailed in “Fantasy Soccer Season in Evaluate: Broad receivers,” the PPR RB1 group relied closely on offensive contact quantity to supply their fantasy-point sums. Whereas the PPR WR1 group confirmed a average correlation between productiveness and offensive atmosphere, the PPR RB1 group demonstrates a far stronger connection between productiveness and offensive atmosphere, with two outlier exceptions. General offensive snap share, situational snap share and speeding try share resoundingly confirmed the strongest correlation with the group although low speeding try quantity, stemming partly from pass-heavy offensive techniques, was positively offset by excessive goal quantity. Gamers typically exhibited average-to-above-average per-play effectivity metrics although effectivity proved much less vital than total offensive contact quantity and PFF speeding grade.

Amongst all offensive atmosphere metrics, snap rely, contact rely, contact share and effectivity metrics, total offensive snap share, situational snap shares and speeding try share present the strongest correlation with PPR RB1 success, with all 12 gamers rating No. 1 total amongst every NFL operating again’s respective staff in Weeks 1-17.

The ultimate desk consists of the 2024 PPR RB1 level totals for formatting functions.

4 2024 PPR RB1s scored greater than 300.0 PPR factors; Philadelphia Eagles operating again Saquon Barkley (355.3), Detroit Lions operating again Jahmyr Gibbs (316.9), Atlanta Falcons operating again Bijan Robinson (310.4) and Baltimore Ravens operating again Derrick Henry (306.3). All 4 operating backs play in environment friendly, run-heavy offenses that regularly make use of movement and execute the play-action passing recreation successfully. Three-of-four operating backs additionally play behind elite run-blocking offensive strains.

The 2024 PPR RB1 group possesses three common operating again archetypes; high-volume rushers, high-volume cross catchers and do-it-all operating backs. Although all 12 operating backs led their staff in speeding try share, some PPR RB1s nonetheless lack entry to elite speeding try quantity. On this state of affairs, concurrently working as a high-volume cross catcher is critical for the participant to achieve the PPR RB1 ranks.

The high-volume rusher group consists of Barkley, Henry, Inexperienced Bay Packers operating again Josh Jacobs and Los Angeles Rams operating again Kyren Williams, who all rank within the prime 12 amongst NFL operating backs in speeding makes an attempt whereas additionally rating outdoors the highest 12 in targets. 

The high-volume cross catchers embrace Detroit Lions operating again Jahmyr Gibbs, Miami Dolphins operating again De’Von Achane, New Orleans Saints operating again Alvin Kamara and Cincinnati Bengals operating again Chase Brown, who all rank within the prime 12 amongst NFL operating backs in targets however rank outdoors the highest 12 in speeding makes an attempt.

Atlanta Falcons operating again Bijan Robinson, Arizona Cardinals operating again James Conner and Carolina Panthers operating again Chuba Hubbard rank prime 12 in each classes. Robinson boasts top-five sums in each classes whereas Conner and Hubbard snuck into the PPR RB1 group with sums within the Nos. 8-12 vary.

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Buffalo Payments operating again James Cook dinner fails to crack the highest 12 in both class however his 15 speeding touchdowns rank No. 1 total and his two receiving touchdowns tie for tenth. 

Two qualifying operating backs entered the 2024 NFL season in a cut up backfield earlier than seizing the full-time beginning function as a consequence of each efficiency and damage. As detailed in “Fantasy Soccer Season in Evaluate: Operating backs,” Brown was already overtaking Cincinnati’s beginning operating again Zack Moss when Moss suffered a season-ending neck damage in Week 8. Brown’s 189 touches in Weeks 9-17 rank third amongst NFL operating backs throughout that span. Gibbs likewise trailed Detroit teammate, operating again David Montgomery in touches, 72-to-65 previous to the staff’s Week 5 bye. Gibbs then out-touched Montgomery in six of 9 video games in Weeks 6-14 earlier than Montgomery suffered an MCL sprain that sidelined him for Weeks 16-18. Gibbs’ 49 touches in Weeks 16-17 rank fourth amongst NFL operating backs throughout that span. Each Brown and Gibbs rank prime 5 in PPR factors scored throughout their respective aforementioned full-time-starter stints because of their vital workload will increase.

Inspecting run play charges in impartial conditions helps make clear a given staff’s desired speeding price. For the sport to be thought-about impartial, the rating differential should be inside three factors or much less, with each the two- and four-minute drill snaps faraway from the pattern. Groups sometimes cross the ball at an above-average price within the two-minute drill to protect the clock whereas operating the ball at an above-average price within the four-minute drill to kill the clock. 

Among the many 72 NFL-team offensive atmosphere knowledge factors listed within the desk under, 51 knowledge factors rank sixteenth or higher whereas 41 rank inside the highest 12. Cincinnati’s pass-heavy, immobile, poorly-blocked and play-action-inefficient offense accounts for 5 knowledge factors rating seventeenth or worse, together with 4 that rank bottom-three. Brown’s aforementioned high-volume utilization helps offset Cincinnati’s in any other case unfriendly operating again atmosphere. The general offensive atmosphere knowledge suggests PPR RB1s strongly profit from constructive offensive environments. 

Six of the highest seven PPR RB1 groups notably rank within the prime 12 in run-play price when utilizing movement and/or anticipated factors added per play-action cross play. Fantasy drafters ought to goal beginning operating backs on groups that regularly make use of movement and/or make the most of play-action passing effectively. 

The PPR RB1 group’s offensive atmosphere knowledge amongst NFL groups in Weeks 1-17:
2024 PPR RB1 Offensive Environments Impartial Run Play Price Whole Crew Rush Att. Run Play Price With Movement Crew OL PFF Run-Blocking Grade EPA Per Play EPA Per Play-Motion Cross Play 
RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles 48.4% (No. 5) 596 (No. 1) 45.3% (No. 11) 84.1 (No. 3) 0.085 (No. 6) 0.211 (No. 9)
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions 52.3% (No. 1) 503 (No. 5) 45.9% (No. 8) 84.8 (No. 2) 0.172 (No. 3) 0.439 (No. 1)
RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons 44.0% (No. 13) 458 (T-No. 8) 48.6% (No. 5) 85.8 (No. 1) 0.017 (No. 14) -0.119 (No. 28)
RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens 46.4% (No. 8) 519 (No. 2) 48.4% (No. 6) 66.1 (No. 22) 0.191 (No. 1) 0.271 (No. 5)
RB De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins 42.1% (No. 18) 425 (T-No. 17) 41.5% (No. 14) 66.0 (No. 23) -0.066 (No. 24) 0.157 (No. 12)
RB Josh Jacobs, Inexperienced Bay Packers 49.8% (No. 2) 493 (No. 6) 53.1% (No. 2) 61.5 (No. 26) 0.075 (No. 7) 0.308 (No. 4)
RB Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams 45.1% (No. 9) 429 (T-No. 14) 43.6% (No. 12) 78.3 (No. 7) 0.027 (No. 13) 0.321 (No. 3)
RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints 48.9% (No. 3) 425 (T-No. 17) 38.5% (No. 20) 75.3 (T-No. 8) -0.065 (No. 23) 0.126 (No. 15)
RB James Cook dinner, Buffalo Payments 42.5% (No. 15) 458 (T-No. 8) 34.3% (No. 30) 67.9 (No. 19) 0.177 (No. 2) 0.195 (No. 10)
RB Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals 30.3% (No. 32) 359 (T-No. 30) 33.2% (No. 32) 52.4 (No. 31) 0.073 (No. 8) 0.116 (No. 17)
RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals 44.2% (No. 11) 436 (No. 13) 38.2% (No. 22) 68.1 (No. 16) 0.049 (No. 9) 0.193 (No. 11)
RB Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers 44.0% (No. 12) 380 (T-No. 26) 41.1% (No. 15) 75.3 (T-No. 8) -0.112 (No. 27) -0.266 (No. 31)

As talked about above, all 2024 PPR RB1s led their respective staff’s positional offensive snap share, pink zone snap share and inexperienced zone snap share. The passing-down roles had been additionally extremely correlated, with 10-of-12 qualifying operating backs main their staff’s positional two-minute-drill snap share and eight main their staff’s positional third- and fourth-and-long snap share. 

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As detailed in beforehand, each the two-minute drill function and third- and fourth-and-long function are extraordinarily beneficial for fantasy-scoring functions. Among the many 2,585 targets earned by NFL operating backs in Weeks 1-17, 371 targets had been earned in the course of the two-minute drill and 263 had been earned in third- and fourth-and-long conditions. Simply 26 targets had been earned in overlapping conditions. 

Amongst all 4 high-volume cross catchers, Gibbs, Achane, Kamara and Brown, solely Brown failed to guide his staff’s operating again corps in each season-long passing-down snap shares. With Moss sidelined from Week 9-on although, Brown seized the staff’s third- and fourth-and-long function, registering an 87.5% positional snap share.

Among the many PPR RB1s, 10-of-12 gamers lead their staff in at the very least one-of-two passing-down roles. 

Six of 12 PPR RB1s scored at the very least 10 pink zone and/or inexperienced zone speeding touchdowns. Amongst NFL operating backs, high-volume rushers Williams (13), Jacobs (13) and Henry (11) respectively tie for and rank Nos. 1 and three in inexperienced zone speeding touchdowns. 

Seven PPR RB1s scored at the very least two pink zone receiving touchdowns. Excessive-volume cross catchers Achane (six) and Brown (4) respectively rank Nos. 1 and a couple of in pink zone receiving touchdowns amongst NFL operating backs. 

Among the many PPR RB1s, seven gamers had been 22-to-25 years previous and three had been 29-to-30. Fantasy managers ought to prioritize drafting operating backs within the 22-to-25-year-old age vary however even 30-year-old operating backs in expectedly high-volume roles shouldn’t be ignored.

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The desk under ranks in parentheses:
  • The PPR RB1 group’s offensive snap knowledge amongst NFL operating backs in Weeks 1-17.
  • The PPR RB1 teams positional offensive snap share amongst every NFL operating again’s respective staff in Weeks 1-17.
  • The PPR RB1 group’s positional pink zone snap share amongst every NFL operating again’s respective staff in Weeks 1-17.
  • The PPR RB1 group’s positional inexperienced zone snap share amongst every NFL operating again’s respective staff in Weeks 1-17.
  • The PPR RB1 group’s positional third- and fourth-and-long snap share amongst every NFL operating again’s respective staff in Weeks 1-17.
  • The PPR RB1 group’s positional two-minute drill snap share amongst every NFL operating again’s respective staff in Weeks 1-17.
2024 PPR RB1 Snap Counts Offensive Snaps Crew RB Off. Snap Share Crew RB Pink Zone Snap Share Crew RB Inexperienced Zone Snap Share Third-and 4th-and-Lengthy Crew RB Snap Share 2-Min. Drill Crew RB Snap Share 2024 In-Season Age
RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles 801 (No. 2) 72.7% (No. 1) 70.3% (No. 1) 73.8% (No. 1) 58.3% (No. 1) 54.0% (No. 1) 27
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions 593 (No. 17) 54.0% (No. 1) 56.3% (No. 1) 49.2% (No. 1) 62.4% (No. 1) 81.4% (No. 1) 22
RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons 792 (No. 3) 72.6% (No. 1) 71.5% (No. 1) 67.5% (No. 1) 88.8% (No. 1) 91.5% (No. 1) 23
RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens 586 (No. 18) 55.9% (No. 1) 61.0% (No. 1) 72.5% (No. 1) 11.3% (No. 2) 4.3% (No. 2) 30
RB De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins 656 (T-No. 9) 56.9% (No. 1) 59.3% (No. 1) 64.1% (No. 1) 43.0% (No. 1) 69.2% (No. 1) 23
RB Josh Jacobs, Inexperienced Bay Packers 656 (T-No. 9) 61.5% (No. 1) 62.7% (No. 1) 71.4% (No. 1) 48.6% (No. 1) 52.6% (No. 1) 26
RB Kyren Williams, Las Angeles Rams 888 (No. 1) 86.7% (No. 1) 93.5% (No. 1) 92.2% (No. 1) 96.4% (No. 1) 100.0% (No. 1) 24
RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints 641 (No. 13) 63.7% (No. 1) 70.0% (No. 1) 75.0% (No. 1) 60.8% (No. 1) 61.1% (No. 1) 29
RB James Cook dinner, Buffalo Payments 469 (No. 29) 47.1% (No. 1) 50.3% (No. 1) 53.9% (No. 1) 6.0% (No. 2) 22.4% (No. 2) 25
RB Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals 685 (No. 6) 66.0% (No. 1) 72.6% (No. 1) 69.3% (No. 1) 41.5% (No. 2) 56.6% (No. 1) 24
RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals 619 (No. 14) 59.2% (No. 1) 69.9% (No. 1) 74.4% (No. 1) 23.0% (No. 2) 52.7% (No. 1) 29
RB Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers 711 (No. 4) 71.2% (No. 1) 75.8% (No. 1) 74.1% (No. 1) 49.6% (No. 1) 75.9% (No. 1) 25

Excessive-volume offensive contact counts are vital, 9 of 12 PPR RB1s rank within the prime 12 amongst NFL operating backs in Weeks 1-17 in complete touches. Excessive-volume cross catchers Gibbs and Achane, plus rushing-touchdown chief Cook dinner are the three PPR RB1s who did not tally prime 12 contact counts however all three produced offsetting knowledge factors. Gibbs’ totaled 47 receptions, 13 speeding touchdowns and three receiving touchdowns whereas Achane’s 78 receptions maintain a 10-reception lead amongst all NFL operating backs and his six receiving touchdowns likewise tie for first. 

Achane’s 16.3% staff goal share and 85 targets rank third amongst Miami cross catchers and Kamara’s team-high 18.9% staff goal share and 87 targets are the one two figures to greatest his. All remaining PPR RB1s completed fourth or decrease in staff goal share and complete targets. Fantasy managers ought to goal operating backs able to ending with prime three in staff goal share whereas additionally being unafraid of drafting operating backs capped by a fourth-place spot within the goal tree. 

The desk under ranks in parentheses:
  • The PPR RB1 group’s speeding try knowledge amongst NFL operating backs in Weeks 1-17.
  • The PPR RB1 group’s positional speeding makes an attempt share amongst every NFL operating again’s respective staff in Weeks 1-17.
  • The PPR RB1 group’s goal knowledge amongst NFL operating backs with at the very least in Weeks 1-17.
  • The PPR RB1 group’s goal share knowledge amongst every NFL operating again’s respective staff in Weeks 1-17.
  • The PPR RB1 group’s offensive complete contact knowledge amongst NFL operating backs with at the very least in Weeks 1-17.
  • The PPR RB1 group’s offensive contact price knowledge amongst 34 NFL operating backs with at the very least 160 offensive touches in Weeks 1-17.
  • The PPR RB1 group’s 2024 in-season age can be listed.
2024 PPR RB1 Offensive Touches Rush Att. Crew RB Rush Att. Share Targets Crew Goal Share Whole Touches Contact Price
RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles 345 (No. 1) 79.9% (No. 1) 39 (T-No. 27) 10.8% (No. 4) 378 (No. 1) 49.0% (No. 10)
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions 227 (No. 17) 50.8% (No. 1) 58 (No. 7) 12.1% (No. 4) 274 (No. 16) 47.4% (No. 13)
RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons 276 (No. 5) 66.2% (No. 1) 65 (No. 4) 13.7% (No. 5) 335 (No. 3) 44.9% (No. 20)
RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens 305 (No. 3) 81.8% (No. 1) 18 (T-No. 52) 4.4% (No. 7) 322 (No. 5) 57.7% (No. 2)
RB De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins 192 (No. 22) 54.4% (No. 1) 85 (No. 2) 16.3% (No. 3) 270 (No. 17) 43.7% (No. 24)
RB Josh Jacobs, Inexperienced Bay Packers 295 (No. 4) 70.6% (No. 1) 40 (No. 26) 9.6% (No. 6) 330 (No. 4) 53.0% (No. 4)
RB Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams 316 (No. 2) 82.7% (No. 1) 38 (T-No. 30) 7.9% (No. 6) 350 (No. 2) 41.5% (No. 28)
RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints 228 (No. 15) 69.1% (No. 1) 87 (No. 1) 18.9% (No. 1) 296 (No. 6) 48.5% (No. 11)
RB James Cook dinner, Buffalo Payments 197 (T-No. 20) 59.0% (No. 1) 38 (T-No. 30) 8.5% (No. 5) 229 (No. 22) 51.1% (No. 7)
RB Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals 229 (No. 14) 73.6% (No. 1) 63 (No. 5) 11.1% (No. 4) 283 (T-No. 10) 43.8% (No. 23)
RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals 236 (No. 12) 67.6% (No. 1) 53 (T-No. 10) 11.2% (No. 4) 283 (T-No. 10) 48.4% (No. 12)
RB Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers 250 (No. 8) 78.6% (No. 1) 52 (T-No. 12) 11.1% (T-No. 4) 293 (No. 7) 43.0% (No. 26)

Whereas simply 5 PPR RB1s rank within the prime 12 in missed tackles compelled per speeding try, 10 gamers rank 18th or higher, suggesting an average-to-above-average tackle-breaking skillset is critical for RB1 productiveness. PFF speeding grade unsurprisingly confirmed even stronger average-to-above-average skillset correlation, with 10 gamers rating sixteenth or higher; eight completed inside the highest 12. 

The PPR RB1 group’s speeding knowledge amongst 33 NFL operating backs with at the very least 130 speeding makes an attempt in Weeks 1-17:
2024 PPR RB1 Speeding PFF Speeding Grade Missed Tackles Pressured/Rush Att. Yards After Contact/Rush Att. Yards/Rush Att.
RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles 85.6 (No. 10) 0.18 (T-No. 18) 3.2 (No. 12) 5.8 (No. 2)
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions 90.2 (No. 6) 0.26 (No. 5) 3.4 (No. 8) 5.6 (No. 3)
RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons 91.7 (No. 2) 0.22 (T-No. 9) 3.0 (T-No. 20) 4.7 (T-No. 11)
RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens 92.6 (No. 1) 0.23 (No. 8) 3.5 (T-No. 4) 5.8 (No. 1)
RB De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins 80.3 (No. 13) 0.14 (No. 30) 2.6 (No. 29) 4.1 (No. 26)
RB Josh Jacobs, Inexperienced Bay Packers 90.4 (No. 5) 0.22 (T-No. 9) 3.4 (No. 6) 4.4 (No. 16)
RB Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams 74.0 (No. 21) 0.16 (T-No. 23) 2.7 (No. 27) 4.1 (No. 25)
RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints 76.6 (No. 16) 0.18 (T-No. 18) 2.8 (No. 26) 4.2 (No. 22)
RB James Cook dinner, Buffalo Payments 85.7 (No. 9) 0.18 (T-No. 18) 3.3 (No. 10) 5.0 (No. 6)
RB Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals 73.8 (No. 22) 0.2 (T-No. 13) 3.1 (No. 17) 4.3 (No. 18)
RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals 90.6 (No. 4) 0.29 (T-No. 2) 3.3 (No. 11) 4.6 (No. 13)
RB Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers 87.0 (No. 7) 0.2 (T-No. 13) 3.5 (T-No. 4) 4.8 (No. 7)

As acknowledged above, 10 of 12 gamers led their staff in at the very least one-of-two passing-down roles, offering even run-centric operating backs the chance to earn reception-based fantasy factors no matter their per-play receiving effectivity. Whereas three of 4 high-volume cross catchers, Gibbs, Achane and Kamara, impressively preserve high-end per-route effectivity, high-end receiving effectivity is pointless for gamers with high-volume contact counts, significantly these with high-volume speeding roles. 

The PPR RB1 group’s receiving knowledge amongst 42 NFL operating backs with at the very least 160 receiving snaps in Weeks 1-17:
2024 PPR RB1 Receiving PFF Receiving Grade Missed Tackles Pressured/Reception Yards/Route Run Whole Factors in 2024
RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles 64.2 (No. 27) 0.42 (No. 6) 0.93 (No. 31) 355.3 (RB1)
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions 69.7 (No. 16) 0.19 (No. 31) 1.65 (No. 4) 316.9 (RB2)
RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons 87.1 (No. 3) 0.31 (No. 17) 1.20 (No. 20) 310.4 (RB3)
RB Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens 73.0 (No. 10) 0.24 (No. 27) 1.06 (T-No. 25) 306.3 (RB4)
RB De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins 82.7 (No. 5) 0.21 (No. 29) 1.60 (T-No. 7) 281.8 (RB5)
RB Josh Jacobs, Inexperienced Bay Packers 85.3 (No. 4) 0.6 (No. 1) 1.39 (No. 11) 281.5 (RB6)
RB Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams 54.0 (T-No. 38) 0.15 (No. 35) 0.52 (No. 41) 272.1 (RB7)
RB Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints 64.7 (No. 25) 0.12 (No. 39) 1.75 (No. 2) 265.3 (RB8)
RB James Cook dinner, Buffalo Payments 62.2 (No. 30) 0.09 (No. 41) 1.16 (T-No. 21) 257.9 (RB9)
RB Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals 76.8 (No. 8) 0.30 (No. 19) 1.06 (T-No. 25) 255.0 (RB10)
RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals 67.3 (No. 20) 0.38 (No. 8) 1.54 (No. 9) 253.8 (RB11)
RB Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers 39.5 (No. 42) 0.19 (No. 32) 0.51 (No. 42) 241.6 (RB12)

NFL operating again PFF pass-blocking grades and pass-protection snap counts are excluded as a consequence of excessive volatility.

Fantasy drafters ought to goal NFL operating backs who’re anticipated to guide their staff in total offensive snap share, situational snap shares, positional speeding try share and total voluminous contact counts. Common-to-above-average skillsets may be recognized by high-end PFF speeding grades and high-end per-route receiving effectivity. NFL operating backs enjoying in environment friendly, operating back-friendly offenses needs to be valued increased than these enjoying in unideal offensive environments.

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