- Dalton Kincaid dissatisfied fantasy managers in 2024, however optimism abounds for 2025: Kincaid recorded one of many worst catchable goal charges this previous season, which ought to regress positively in his favor subsequent season and assist increase his fantasy manufacturing.
- Mark Andrews benefited enormously from Lamar Jackson’s elite passing season, although he additionally deserves credit score: Andrews had an important mixture of catchable targets and high-end effectivity to permit for a TE6 end in 2024.
Estimated Studying Time: 9 minutes
Quite a bit goes right into a participant’s fantasy manufacturing every season, however for go catchers, probably the most vital points is their quarterback’s accuracy.
So, we’ll dive deeper into targets that PFF has deemed catchable — and the tight ends who benefited essentially the most and least in fantasy (Weeks 1-17) from these catchable targets — whereas using every participant’s particular person receiving metrics to mission how a lot they carried out above and beneath expectations.
Click on right here to learn the large receiver model.
The formulation to find out every participant’s anticipated fantasy factors is as follows:
- Anticipated catchable targets = Positional common catchable goal fee (82%) multiplied by precise targets
- Anticipated fantasy factors = PPR scoring for adjusted receptions, adjusted yards and adjusted touchdowns
- Adjusted receptions = Participant’s catchable reception fee multiplied by anticipated catchable targets
- Adjusted yards = Participant’s yards per reception multiplied by adjusted receptions
- Adjusted touchdowns = Participant’s touchdowns per catchable goal fee multiplied by anticipated catchable targets
- Snap threshold to be included = Minimal of 100 routes and 10 targets
A large receiver’s catchable goal fee has largely confirmed not to be a secure metric lately (common correlation of simply 0.2738 since 2022), so this train’s worth is in including the context of potential optimistic or destructive regression for a number of the high over- and under-achievers subsequent season.
