- Marvin Harrison Jr. got here in 2024 with very excessive expectations, however he let down fantasy managers as a rookie, partly as a consequence of inaccurate targets: Earlier than fantasy managers write off the 2024 fourth general decide, there is essential context to contemplate, which may result in enchancment in Yr 2.
- Jauan Jennings gives intriguing prospects for a 2025 worth improve: The 49ers may have an opportunity to bounce again subsequent season with Jennings being an enormous a part of that.
- 2025 NFL Draft season is right here: Strive PFF’s best-in-class Mock Draft Simulator and study 2025’s prime prospects whereas buying and selling and drafting in your favourite NFL crew.
Estimated studying time: 9 minutes
Loads goes into each participant’s fantasy manufacturing every season. Nonetheless, for go catchers particularly, one of the crucial vital points of their capacity to provide fantasy factors depends on their quarterbacks and their accuracy.
Focusing completely on targets that PFF has deemed catchable, this text will have a look at which gamers benefited probably the most and least for fantasy (Weeks 1-17) from catchable targets whereas using every participant’s personal receiving metrics to undertaking how a lot every participant carried out above and beneath expectations utilizing the typical catchable goal price for extensive receivers within the NFL this previous season.
The system to find out every participant’s anticipated fantasy factors is as follows:
- Anticipated catchable targets = Positional common catchable goal price (72%) X precise targets.
- Anticipated fantasy factors = PPR scoring for adjusted receptions, adjusted yards, and adjusted touchdowns.
- Adjusted receptions = Participant’s catchable reception price X anticipated catchable targets.
- Adjusted yards = Participant’s yards per reception X adjusted receptions.
- Adjusted touchdowns = Participant’s TD per catchable goal price X anticipated catchable targets.
- Snap threshold to be included = Minimal of 100 routes and 10 targets.
It’s price noting that extensive receiver catchable goal price has largely confirmed to not be a steady metric lately (common correlation of simply 0.2811 since 2022), so a part of the explanation this train could be beneficial could be so as to add the context of potential optimistic or detrimental regression for a few of the prime over and under-achievers subsequent season.
