Abstract
We’re close to the beginning of 2025, with two sturdy years for the U.S. inventory market near being within the books. However may 2025 embody some imply reversion exterior of the 50 states? To contemplate that, we’ll begin with a deal with the Rising Markets ETF (EEM) and the iShares China-Massive-Cap ETF (FXI). At any time when we speak about EEM and FXI, we first have a look at the technicals of the U.S. Greenback Index (USD). The 2 ETFs are extremely negatively correlated with the USD and any consideration of those international ETFs should be related to a minimum of a “potential” unfavorable outlook for USD. USD started its uptrend in 2011 and peaked in 2016. From 2015 till 2022, USD traced out a sideways, bullish consolidation and broke out in 2022. After peaking in September 2022, USD went sideways earlier than taking off in September 2024 and racing larger from $100 to a current high of $108. It seems USD has traced out a five-wave advance and has run into chart resistance within the $108 area. Apparently, whereas the Dedication of Merchants (COT) knowledge turned bullish in September, it lastly has backed off and is now impartial. In one other week or two, it is potential the COT knowledge will flip bearish on the USD. So the setup is there for a USD peak, which might
