Leasing momentum, decrease rates of interest unlikely to rescue Hong Kong’s distressed workplace landlords

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Hong Kong’s workplace property market is prone to see extra distressed gross sales within the medium time period, as banks might want to name on loans amid a tender demand for workplace house, based on analysts.

From their peak in October 2018, costs of prime workplace house within the metropolis’s principal enterprise zones of Sheung Wan/Central, Wan Chai/Causeway Bay and Tsim Sha Tsui declined by greater than 46 per cent as of November, based on the newest information from the Ranking and Valuation Division.

Total rents, in the meantime, throughout town’s premium workplace house phase are estimated to have fallen 8.6 per cent this 12 months, based on actual property agency JLL. The property consultancy forecasts workplace rents to drop by as a lot as 10 per cent in 2025.

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“A couple of years in the past, rental transactions would go for 50,000 sq ft, however now leasing transactions are only for 18,000 sq ft, so rents couldn’t fund the loans,” mentioned Oscar Chan, head of capital markets at JLL in Hong Kong. “For the banks, if a borrower has defaulted for one or two years already, they need to take motion it doesn’t matter what. Positively, in two to 5 years, there will likely be extra circumstances of banks taking motion.”

Whereas Hong Kong’s six greatest lenders – HSBC, Cling Seng Financial institution, Financial institution of China (Hong Kong), Financial institution of East Asia, Customary Chartered Financial institution and ICBC Asia – this month lower borrowing prices to the bottom degree in additional than two years, uncertainties cloud the outlook for extra fee cuts initiated by the US Federal Reserve subsequent 12 months as a result of the incoming Trump administration’s financial insurance policies are extensively considered as inflationary.

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“In the direction of the top of 2024, the workplace market exhibited a combined efficiency,” mentioned Tom Ko, govt director and head of capital markets in Hong Kong at actual property brokers Cushman & Wakefield. “Looking forward to 2025, the outlook for the workplace market suggests a continuation of challenges.”

The outlook for Hong Kong’s workplace property market in 2025 suggests persevering with challenges. Photograph: Dickson Lee alt=The outlook for Hong Kong’s workplace property market in 2025 suggests persevering with challenges. Photograph: Dickson Lee>

The weak sentiment within the metropolis’s workplace property market may see hearth gross sales of extra distressed industrial actual property subsequent 12 months.

“Extra distressed gross sales are anticipated as market circumstances persist,” Ko mentioned. “A possible lower in rates of interest could result in elevated transaction exercise, however the general market is anticipated to stay underneath stress because of ongoing corrections and monetary constraints.”

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