• Diminishing play from Kirk Cousins: Cousins’ total passing grade has dipped since Week 9, as extra of his turnover-worthy performs have translated into defensive takeaways.
• Allowing extra large performs on protection: Earlier than Week 10, the Falcons have been above-average in permitting explosive go and run performs however have since ranked backside 10 in each.
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Estimated Studying Time: 5 minutes
Coming into Week 10, it was nearly all sunshine and rainbows for the Atlanta Falcons. The crew was 6-3 after a radical victory over the Dallas Cowboys and given an 84.4% likelihood to win the NFC South — which felt like a assure given appreciable accidents to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
However life within the NFL can hit you want Ray Lewis over the center, and that’s exactly what’s occurred to Raheem Morris’ bunch. The Falcons haven’t gained a sport since Week 9, dropping 4 straight and squandering their benefit within the South. Now, Atlanta has solely a 36% likelihood to succeed in the postseason and a 33% likelihood to win the division, in response to PFF ELO rankings.
So, the place did all of it go unsuitable? The reply primarily stems from a waning passing sport, however different departments are additionally at fault.
Though the Falcons have taken on the Broncos, Chargers and Vikings within the final three weeks — every of whom ranks top-seven in defensive EPA per play — Atlanta nonetheless ranked fourth in total offensive grade from Weeks 10-14, to not point out sat fifth in speeding EPA per play. It’s not as if the Falcons’ high-powered offense has merely stopped scoring factors or shifting the ball at an environment friendly fee.
As a substitute, the wrongdoer has been steadiness. From Weeks 1-9, the Falcons have been top-10 in each passing and speeding EPA per play. Within the 5 weeks since, although, Atlanta slotted 24th in passing and fifth in speeding, dragging its total EPA per play mark down from seventh to twentyth and its success fee down from seventh to fifteenth.
The cruel actuality is that a lot of the blame does fall squarely on the shoulders of prized free-agent addition Kirk Cousins. Cousins was stellar to start the 12 months, providing the Falcons their long-awaited savior underneath heart after being caught in quarterback purgatory post-Matt Ryan. Within the weeks which have adopted, nonetheless, Cousins’ play has declined. Take into account the desk beneath.
| Weeks 1-9 | Weeks 10-14 | |
| Passing Grade | 75.5 | 61.6 |
| Large-Time Throw Price | 1.9% | 4.0% |
| Turnover-Worthy Play Price | 4.1% | 5.7% |
| Accuracy % | 64.9 | 59.5 |
| Uncatchable Throw % | 17.8 | 23.0 |
The weird a part of Cousins’ season, regardless of the way you splice it, is that his turnover-worthy play numbers have at all times been elevated. The truth is, Cousins’ 4.6% turnover-worthy play fee is his highest in a season since 2014, and his 23 turnover-worthy performs are essentially the most within the league. Whilst Atlanta was coasting, Cousins sported a 4.1% turnover-worthy play fee, which was the ninth-highest amongst certified quarterbacks.
However, a stark distinction in what’s modified since Week 10 is turnover luck regression. From Weeks 1-9, solely seven of Cousins’ 14 turnover-worthy performs resulted in interceptions; from Weeks 10-14, eight of his 9 turnover-worthy performs grew to become picks. That kind of pattern ought to probably solely be anticipated to happen if a participant continues to commit a excessive quantity of performs that ought to certainly be takeaways.
Furthermore, Cousins hasn’t been almost pretty much as good pushing the ball down the sphere. His PFF passing grade on deep passing makes an attempt shifted from 90.9 to 76.9, whereas his intermediate passing grade has plummeted from 81.2 to 53.4 — the latter of which ranks 31st amongst 32 qualifiers in that span.
These issues have prolonged on play motion as effectively. Cousins was a top-10 passer on play-action seems to be till Week 9 along with his 79.4 passing grade, however that determine has been whittled right down to 46.3 — which is 27th out of 28 qualifiers over the past 5 weeks. Successfully, the Falcons haven’t been capable of function as a play-action, deep-oriented passing assault — which is how they will perform finest given their field-stretching receiver expertise in Drake London, Darnell Mooney and Kyle Pitts.
Despite the fact that the Falcons have been 6-3, their protection was nonetheless largely suspect, sitting 21st in EPA per play and 29th in success fee over the primary 9 weeks. Sadly for Morris, his protection has struggled greater than earlier than in a number of areas, particularly in surrendering explosive performs. From Weeks 1-9, Atlanta was seventh in explosive passing fee allowed and 13th in explosive speeding fee permitted; since then, the Falcons are 28th in explosive go fee and 23rd in explosive run fee. Simply ask the Vikings, who compiled a gaudy 14 explosive performs in Week 14 alone.
The woes of kicker Younghoe Koe can’t be overstated, both — particularly as a result of two of Atlanta’s 4 losses have been by 4 factors or fewer. Koo’s 45.6 subject purpose grade since Week 10 ranks thirty third out of 37 kickers, and the normally dependable veteran has made solely 3-of-7 kicks from past 30 yards. Juxtapose that along with his 81.7 field-goal grade earlier than Week 10, and you can begin to know the blueprint for a collapse.
Even having relinquished the NFC South lead, all hope isn’t fully erased for the Falcons. Atlanta performs the best schedule within the NFL over the ultimate 4 weeks, with seemingly just one difficult sport arriving in Week 17 in Washington. Despite the fact that the Bucs don’t rank far behind — taking part in the seventh-easiest slate — they’ve nearly zero margin for error provided that the Falcons maintain the head-to-head tiebreaker.
If Atlanta needs to regain late-season momentum, it is going to want Cousins to play higher on play motion and throwing down the sphere, as a result of his unusually excessive fee of turnover-worthy performs most likely gained’t diminish this 12 months. Likewise, permitting fewer explosive performs and making extra subject targets might all energy the crew’s first postseason berth since 2017.
