- The Washington Commanders protection in opposition to heavy personnel: Washington has struggled to cease the run when the opponent places a number of tight ends on the sphere, which is one thing the Eagles have carried out fairly often this season.
- The place the Buffalo Payments protection struggles: Buffalo has been weak on beneath passes in the midst of the sphere, which Kansas Metropolis’s offense is well-positioned to use on Sunday.
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Estimated studying time: 6 minutes
Philadelphia Eagles: Run the ball with a number of tight ends on the sphere
The Washington Commanders protection basically lives in nickel formation – 5 defensive backs – lining up in nickel on 81.1% of its performs this season, which ranks second to solely the Eagles, who’ve been in nickel on 81.3% of its snaps. That is true even when the Washington protection is going through a number of tight ends. In reality, the Commanders match 12 (one working again and two tight ends) and 13 (one working again and three tight ends) personnel with nickel at an excellent larger charge — 84.7% of their snaps, which ranks second solely to the Buffalo Payments.
Nonetheless, this method additionally leaves the Washington protection weak to runs, because it has a lighter protection on the sphere in opposition to a number of tight ends. The Commanders protection confronted 187 run performs in opposition to 12 and 13 personnel, together with the playoffs, and has allowed 0.07 EPA per play on these, the third highest within the NFL this season. Moreover, the Commanders allowed a optimistic EPA per play on 46% of those run performs, the NFL’s second-highest charge.
This method wouldn’t be international to the Eagles offense, because it ranked fourth within the common season with 283 run performs out of 12 and 13 personnel, which ranked fourth within the NFL. Moreover, the Eagles’ 1,089 dashing yards ranked fifth whereas their 0.05 EPA per play ranked sixth within the league on these runs. Nonetheless, on their 33 such runs within the postseason, they had been much more environment friendly as they averaged 0.07 EPA per play on these of their video games in opposition to the Inexperienced Bay Packers and the Los Angeles Rams.
Washington Commanders: Preserve the sport shut and let Jayden Daniels win it for you
Whereas this isn’t essentially a concrete plan for find out how to assault the Eagles protection or decelerate Philadelphia’s offense, the Commanders have loads of expertise in conserving a sport shut after which seeing their rookie quarterback take issues into his personal arms to win the sport.
No workforce has been extra environment friendly within the latter elements of video games than the Commanders thus far this season. Together with the playoffs, the Commanders offense has averaged 0.24 EPA per play within the final 5 minutes of the fourth quarters, which leads all offenses by a big margin.
That is largely on account of Daniels, who has been deadly in clutch conditions this season. Final week, we highlighted how efficient he has been within the crimson zone, however total, he can change to a different gear within the final 5 minutes of regulation, not solely within the crimson zone. He has an 89.4 PFF passing grade in these conditions, which ranks second within the NFL to solely Lamar Jackson, whereas 650 passing yards within the final 5 minutes of the fourth quarter led all quarterbacks within the common season. His six landing passes had been additionally probably the most whereas his six huge–time throws had been tied for the lead. Lastly, Daniels’s 110.7 passer ranking on these performs ranked fourth within the NFL within the common season, whereas his 118.8 passer ranking in these conditions within the postseason ranks second amongst playoff quarterbacks.
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs: Assault the beneath areas in the midst of the sphere
Attacking the center of the sphere is one thing the Chiefs have turn into fairly good at through the years, particularly after we are speaking concerning the beneath areas. In reality, the Chiefs tried 151 go performs contained in the numbers and inside 9 yards of the road of scrimmage. This ranked tied for 11th within the common season; nonetheless, the 69 first downs they picked up had been tied for second. Moreover, these performs yielded optimistic EPA for Kansas Metropolis on 69.5% of its performs, the third highest within the NFL.
Consequently, quarterback Patrick Mahomes has additionally been very efficient when focusing on the center of the sphere with these beneath passes. His 89.0 PFF passing grade ranked third amongst 46 qualifying quarterbacks on these performs within the common season. Mahomes additionally took superb care of the soccer on these performs, as none of his 147 go makes an attempt had been categorized as turnover-worthy passes.
Whereas the Payments’ protection does not have lots of weaknesses, this method might pay dividends for the Chiefs offense. The Payments protection allowed a primary down or a landing on 39.3% of such go makes an attempt, the second-highest within the league throughout the common season. Equally, the 0.45 EPA per play the Payments allowed to those beneath areas in the midst of the sphere had been the second most by a protection, behind solely the Tennessee Titans. Sadly for the Payments, the Chiefs are superb at exploiting this weak point.
Buffalo Payments: Drop eight defenders in protection
It is rather troublesome to seek out weaknesses on this Kansas Metropolis workforce, each on offense and on protection. Nonetheless, one space that can provide the Chiefs offense and Patrick Mahomes hassle is when they’re going through simply three pass-rushers whereas eight defenders drop again in protection. Whereas the Chiefs offense averages 0.11 EPA per play on performs when it’s going through 4 or extra pass-rushers – which ranks eighth within the NFL – its EPA per play drops to -0.03 when it faces three or fewer pass-rushers, which is simply 16th within the league this season. Equally, Mahomes has earned an 82.0 PFF passing grade when going through 4 or extra pass-rushers, which ranks eighth amongst 38 qualifying quarterbacks. Nonetheless, he ranks solely 31st with a 52.0 PFF passing grade on performs when three or fewer defenders are after him.
Mahomes has confronted 30 such performs thus far this season, tied for seventh most. Nonetheless, the 4 sacks he has taken on these performs are tied for the second most, suggesting that performs with three go rushers are turning into sacks at a better charge with Mahomes than with different quarterbacks. Moreover, Kansas Metropolis’s quarterback averages solely 3.6 yards per try on these performs, simply thirty first within the NFL.
The Payments are usually not shy to drop eight defenders in protection, as they’ve carried out so 35 occasions this season, the eighth most within the NFL. As well as, they allowed a optimistic EPA on solely 34.3% of those performs, the NFL’s ninth-best charge in 2024. Clearly, the Payments can’t use this method too usually, but when sprinkled in effectively and referred to as on the proper time, it might probably determine the sport in Buffalo’s favor.
