NFL Convention Championship Video games Betting Pocket book

I’ve been placing collectively notes for each recreation that Judah Fortgang and I contact on in the course of the betting episode of the PFF NFL Present every week, and I’ve since prolonged that to game-by-game betting notes for the complete slate every week.

The concept is to place my analysis and ideas onto paper in a quick-hitting, bulleted format to assist myself work by what bets I wish to place every week. Hopefully, you’re in a position to get comparable betting worth from this text as you’re employed by your decision-making course of. 

Every recreation will embody data-driven and contextual notes for each side of the ball with an “Angles I Like” abstract on the finish that rapidly summarizes how I’m more than likely to wager the sport from spreads, totals and participant props views.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (EAGLES -6, 47.5 TOTAL)

• Washington and Philadelphia break up the season-long sequence, with the Eagles profitable 26-18 in Week 11 and Jayden Daniels mounting a 36-33 comeback win for the Commanders in Week 16 (Jalen Hurts left the sport early with a concussion).
  • Washington received that second contest regardless of turning the ball over 5 occasions.
• The method for beating the Eagles appears to be taking away their run recreation and forcing Jalen Hurts to win by the air. As Saquon Barkley’s numbers point out, that’s a lot simpler mentioned than carried out.
  • Throughout two postseason video games, the Eagles’ speeding offense has been considerably extra productive than their passing offense.
    • Eagles common yards per play in postseason
      • Go: 3.9 (second lowest) 
      • Run: 6.6 (second highest)
• A part of the problem with leaning on a “take away the Eagles’ run recreation” technique is that only one mistake might equal a 70-yard Barkley landing.
  • Most TD runs of 20+ yards (together with postseason) since 2006
    • Saquon Barkley (2024): 9
      • Three in two video games towards Washington
    • Chris Johnson (2009): 8
    • Adrian Peterson (2007): 6
    • DeAngelo Williams (2008): 6
• Barkley is averaging essentially the most yards earlier than contact per run of any working again within the NFL (2.5), and the Commanders are the one protection within the NFL permitting greater than 2 yards earlier than contact per designed rush (2.1).
  • Barkley’s line continues to sit down at a ridiculous quantity, however it’s warranted. It is a nice matchup, and Philadelphia will doubtless proceed to lean on a run recreation that’s been considerably extra productive than its passing recreation.
    • I received’t be betting Barkley’s over or beneath straight up, however I’m focused on pairing the over with the Commanders’ moneyline for inverse correlation in single-game parlays. We noticed final week {that a} home-run hitter like Barkley (Jahmyr Gibbs) can rip off explosives in a shedding effort. Plus, the Eagles are unlikely to get right into a scenario the place they’ll flip away from the run.
• The Commanders had been a comparatively large man protection and blitzing workforce within the common season, however each of these numbers have declined within the playoffs.
  • Common Season
    • 27% man protection (Thirteenth) | 21% vs. Eagles
    • 39% blitz fee (fifth) | 52% vs. Eagles
  • Postseason
    • 21% man protection (second lowest)
    • 22% blitz fee (second lowest)
• Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown each have large manufacturing splits that favor man protection.
  • Hurts passing | 2024 season
    • Vs. man: 9.6 YPA, 127.8 passer ranking
    • Vs. zone: 7.4 YPA, 95.5 passer ranking
  • Brown receiving | 2024 season
    • Vs. man: 37% goal fee, 3.89 YPRR
    • Vs. zone: 21% goal fee, 2.19 YPRR
• Hurts has struggled towards blitzes with zone behind it, which goal to reap the benefits of his poor strain response with out giving one-on-ones to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. I count on Hurts to see fairly a little bit of that on this matchup.
  • Hurts vs. zone blitz
    • Final in PFF passing grade
    • Second-most sacks taken of any quarterback
    • Eagles rank twenty second out of 32 offenses in yards per dropback
• That every one factors to a scenario the place I shouldn’t be too within the Eagles’ passing offense (particularly after getting burned on Hurts/Brown overs final week and figuring out that they wish to put Hurts in as few positions as doable to make errors), however the focus of targets within the Week 16 loss makes take into consideration Hurts/Brown/Smith overs at depressed traces.
  • Brown (15 targets) and Smith (seven targets) accounted for 22 of the Eagles’ 24 complete targets in Week 16 towards Washington — granted, with Kenny Pickett at quarterback for a lot of the recreation.
    • Goedert was out in Week 16, and he has been the Eagles’ main receiver (103 yards) by two postseason video games.
• It sounds just like the Eagles plan to have Hurts accessible for the NFC Championship recreation, however I’m fearful about his knee harm being a problem for the offense limiting his impression as a designed rusher and his capability to keep away from sacks when he’s holding onto the soccer within the pocket (like we noticed towards the Rams final week).
• Linebacker Nakobe Dean‘s harm is a big blow to the Eagles’ run protection. Dean was PFF’s Thirteenth-highest-graded run-defending linebacker within the NFL this season.
  • Kyren Williams (19 carries for 106 yards) and Josh Jacobs (18 carries for 81 yards) have each had some stage of success towards Philadelphia run protection this postseason, notably since Dean went down within the wild-card spherical.
  • Brian Robinson Jr. wasn’t in a position to do something towards the Buccaneers (10 carries for 16 yards), however he had a powerful exhibiting towards Detroit, with 15 carries for 71 yards and two touchdowns.
    • I like Robinson’s overs at lower than 40 yards and have some curiosity in Robinson’s speeding alt overs, notably in single-game parlay builds, implying Washington covers/wins and the Eagles’ offense struggles to maneuver the ball with Hurts probably restricted by his knee harm.
    • Robinson additionally advantages from Daniels working off him on learn choices, and Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio might prioritize retaining the ball out of Daniels’ fingers.
• As for Daniels, this can be a tough matchup towards Fangio and the Eagles’ move protection, however he is without doubt one of the extra matchup-proof quarterbacks within the NFL with the way in which he’s in a position to deal with fast strain and ideal protection.
  • In contrast to final week, the place I appreciated the matchup outdoors for Terry McLaurin and Dyami Brown, I’m extra focused on unders for McLaurin in powerful matchups on the skin towards Quinyon Mitchell and Darius Slay.
  • For Washington’s passing recreation, I’ve essentially the most curiosity in Austin Ekeler and Olamide Zaccheaus.
    • Ekeler tallied eight catches for 89 receiving yards within the first assembly towards Philadelphia and missed the second contest. He’s been a key a part of the Commanders’ offense within the postseason, each as a runner and a move catcher (eight targets on 34 routes). Washington acquired each him and Robinson on the sphere collectively a good quantity over the previous two weeks.
    • Zaccheaus stays the first slot vast receiver, and as I mentioned final week, Philadelphia ranks within the backside half of the NFL in slot receptions allowed.
      • Zaccheaus was a key a part of Washington’s comeback effort in Week 16 (5 catches for 70 yards and two touchdowns).
    • Each Ekeler and Zaccheaus have receiving yardage traces beneath 30. I like their overs.
• Daniels’ speeding yardage line is attending to the purpose within the mid-50s the place I don’t have a lot curiosity within the over, however I’m additionally not desirous to wager the beneath.
  • Daniels has actually had well timed runs this postseason, however he has simply 87 speeding yards on 29 carries. He’s clearly emphasizing avoiding contact and has left yards on the desk in an try and get to the sideline untouched.
  • I a lot favor Daniels over 10.5 speeding makes an attempt to over about 55 yards.
• The Eagles have continued to trip nice protection and an elite run recreation method up to now, however with Daniels excelling as of late and there being sufficient issues concerning the Eagles’ move recreation (coupled with Hurts probably being restricted by the knee harm), I’ll be on Washington once more this week.

Angles I like: Commanders +6 (and moneyline), Brian Robinson Jr. speeding overs (anytime TD additionally good worth at nearly +200), Saquon Barkley overs paired with Commanders moneyline in single-game parlay, Terry McLaurin receiving beneath, Austin Ekeler/Olamide Zaccheaus receiving overs, Commanders protection sack props

BUFFALO BILLS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (CHIEFS -1.5, 47.5 TOTAL)

• Regardless of not enjoying in the identical division, the Payments and Chiefs are very aware of one another after assembly within the postseason a number of occasions throughout the previous 5 years.
  • The Payments had been the one workforce to beat the Chiefs’ beginning lineup this season, a 30-21 victory in Week 11.
  • Each groups averaged about 5 yards per play (5.0 for Kansas Metropolis and 5.2 for Buffalo), however the Payments ran practically 20 extra performs than the Chiefs as a result of:
    • They had been environment friendly on third down (9-for-15)
    • They received the turnover battle 2-1.
• Buffalo’s speeding offense has been one of many extra spectacular models this postseason. The Payments have a 50% speeding success fee (share of performs producing optimistic anticipated factors added) by wins over the Broncos and Ravens regardless of them boasting the highest two defenses within the NFL in speeding success fee allowed in the course of the common season.
  • The Payments’ regular-season speeding success fee was 44%, rating sixth within the NFL.
  • Lowest speeding success fee allowed | 2024 common season
    • Broncos: 34%
    • Ravens: 34%
    • Browns: 35%
    • Chiefs: 35%
      • That is one other tough matchup on paper, however I’ve some curiosity in James Prepare dinner’s speeding overs since I’m anticipating the Payments will wish to maintain their offense on schedule and out of third-and-long conditions the place Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo can ship artistic pressures after Josh Allen.
      • The Chiefs are additionally coming off a recreation the place they struggled to restrict a Houston speeding assault that has been non-existent for a lot of the season.
• Josh Allen took six carries with the Payments needing 2 yards or much less for a primary down final week towards Baltimore, and he transformed 4 occasions. Buffalo will as soon as once more lean on him in these short-yardage conditions.
  • I favor betting on Allen going over 9.5 speeding makes an attempt as an alternative of his speeding yardage over, on condition that short-yardage ingredient.
• The Chiefs have allowed a better share of their receptions to fit receivers than another protection within the NFL. With Jaylen Watson again on the skin with Trent McDuffie, Chamarri Conner is clearly the weak hyperlink amongst their three beginning “cornerbacks.”
  • Shakir has been the Payments’ prime goal within the passing recreation all season, and he recorded eight catches for 70 yards within the first assembly between these groups. I’ll once more goal his overs for this recreation.
• Buffalo’s protection doesn’t current the identical challenges for the Chiefs that Houston’s did.
  • Highest defensive success fee allowed since Week 14
  • Over that stretch, Buffalo’s move protection (twenty ninth in anticipated factors allowed per play) has been considerably worse than the workforce’s run protection (tenth), which fits Kansas Metropolis’s type of play.
    • Chiefs: second in move fee in impartial recreation scripts in 2024
    • Chiefs: twenty ninth in common yards per run play in 2024
• It must be a high-volume passing recreation for Patrick Mahomes, who I’m anticipating to have a greater efficiency than he did in Week 11 towards Buffalo (23-of-33, 196 yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions).
  • The Payments are inclined to funnel targets to the center of the sphere (twenty ninth in passing yards allowed on throws between the numbers).
  • Travis Kelce is usually Mahomes’ prime goal in that portion of the sphere, and he’s appeared to discover a new gear once more within the postseason, however the Payments did job of taking him away in Week 11 (two catches for 8 yards).
    • I are inclined to aspect with Kelce’s unders now that his receiving yardage line is round 70 yards. I’ve to think about the Payments’ prime objective might be to take him away, and we’ve seen them do that when this season, though Kelce has additionally put up 75-plus yards in three straight postseason video games towards Buffalo.
• If the Payments are limiting Kelce by retaining a number of eyes on him, that creates extra alternative for the vast receivers. Cornerback Christian Benford is in concussion protocol and Taylor Rapp is out with a hip harm, so Buffalo’s secondary will not be at full power.
  • Marquise Brown is attention-grabbing to me once more, with a receiving yardage line within the low 30s. He ran a season-high 23 routes towards Houston regardless of getting shut out of the receptions column in a tough matchup towards Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter.
  • Xavier Worthy additionally has the potential for a high-volume slot position if the Payments’ major objective is to remove Kelce.
    • Worthy led Kansas Metropolis with 17 routes run from the slot final week, and Buffalo allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to fit receivers of any protection within the common season.
    • Worthy leads all Chiefs receivers with 41 targets since Week 14. He has develop into a bigger a part of their passing offense because the season has progressed.
• In a high-leverage recreation, these are two offenses that I count on to place up robust performances and two defenses that haven’t been acting at an elite stage for a lot of the yr. My favourite unfold/complete wager on this recreation is the over at 47.5.

Angles I like: Over 47.5, James Prepare dinner speeding overs and anytime TD, Josh Allen over 9.5 rush makes an attempt at +100 or higher, Khalil Shakir receiving overs, Travis Kelce receiving unders, Patrick Mahomes to Xavier Worthy/Marquise Brown single-game parlays