NFL Picks for Week 14: Skilled & Pc Upset Predictions

• Need some assist in betting the remainder of the Week 14 slate of video games within the 2024-25 NFL season?
• My SBD method and I are providing the groups we consider can pull off an upset in Week 14
• See our Week 14 NFL picks under

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Week 14 has already handled us to among the best video games of the yr, however it nonetheless has 12 extra to return throughout Sunday and Monday. Should you’re in search of some assist in betting the remainder of Week 14, or simply need your biases/leans confirmed, I’ve gathered my NFL picks in addition to my SBD method’s pc picks for every of the remaining video games.

I went 1-0 on my upset picks from final week, successful 1.43 items. My SBD method went 3-1 on its picks, successful 2.93 items. (The additional decide was the results of the Seahawks turning into underdogs. I tweeted it out Sunday AM.) Right here’s how we, or a minimum of I, plan to maintain the cash coming in for Week 14!

Week 14 NFL Picks

I’ve two upset picks for Week 14, however my method is predicting zero upsets this week. It does, nevertheless, have a pair very shut margins of victory. Earlier than I am going any additional, although, I need to urge the significance of line buying earlier than you lock in any of the picks above. The moneyline odds I’ve included had been the most effective on the time of scripting this. Yow will discover the most effective odds out there at any time utilizing our NFL odds web page.

Although my SBD method has all favorites successful in Week 14, listed here are some video games the place it’s predicting an in depth recreation (and you can doubtlessly take a swing):

1. Titans to beat the Jaguars by 3.1 factors
2. Dolphins to beat the Jets by 1.6 factors
3. Cardinals to beat the Seahawks by 1.2 factors
4. 49ers to beat the Bears by 1.7 factors
5. Chiefs to beat the Chargers by 0.3 factors

You’ll discover two of the above are upsets I’m betting, which makes me really feel even higher in regards to the decide!

Should you needed greater than moneyline picks, SBD has Week 14 lined from many angles. You possibly can take a look at Zach Reger’s Week 14 NFL picks towards the unfold, and the Week 14 NFL props John Hyslop likes the most effective. However you too can preserve studying right here if you happen to’d like my evaluation on every of my three picks above.

Browns Over Steelers

That is the one considered one of my three NFL picks this week the place I don’t really feel the staff I’m betting has a greater than 50% likelihood to win the sport. Nevertheless, I feel they’ve a significantly better likelihood to win this recreation than the moneyline odds counsel. The +260 odds FanDuel is providing on the Browns to win implies a 27.8% chance. I feel Cleveland’s chance of successful this recreation is round 45%.

There are three predominant causes I feel this recreation is near a coin-flip:

1. The Browns simply beat the Steelers two weeks in the past
2. Cleveland’s offense is a succesful unit with out Deshaun Watson underneath heart
3. Pittsburgh lacks the power to tug away from groups who aren’t horrible

Furthering the primary level above, Cleveland simply picked up a win when internet hosting Pittsburgh in Week 12. The Browns received 24-19 whereas committing three turnovers.

On the second level, the Jameis Winston expertise has had its ups and downs, as is to be anticipated with Winston, however even the downs have been higher than what we noticed Deshaun Watson do with this offense. Cleveland has now scored 24+ factors in three of the 5 video games Winston has began, which is a milestone they by no means achieved of their first seven video games with Watson – their game-high for factors was 18. What’s much more spectacular about that stat is the defenses he has completed it towards. He scored 29 factors towards the Ravens (type of spectacular), 24 towards the Steelers, and 32 towards the Broncos.

On the ultimate level, Pittsburgh has but to point out me they’ll put an honest staff away. They only win shut video games. We noticed them beat up on the Raiders and Jets, two of the worst groups within the league, who each endure from terrible QB play, whereas six of their different seven wins have been by one rating, two of them being by lower than three factors. I feel we’ll see Pittsburgh wrestle to place the Browns away, so long as Jameis doesn’t throw too many pick-sixes, giving Winston a possibility to win this recreation late.

The uncertainty round George Pickens’ standing (on the time of writing this text in any case) is also a significant factor. Pickens is the Steelers’ greatest offensive weapon, and I don’t assume they might be capable of transfer the ball as nicely with out him.

• Decide: Browns moneyline (+260 at FanDuel)

Bears Over 49ers

I actually thought this recreation could be a decide’em after what we have now seen from the 49ers over the previous three weeks. I recognize that Brock Purdy didn’t play of their 28-point loss to the Packers, however he did play of their house loss to the Seahawks in addition to the 25-point loss to the Payments.

One participant the 49ers will be with out is Christian McCaffrey, whose season is now over after injuring his knee within the snow final week. The 49ers offense, which has largely relied upon a superb operating recreation, will now have to show to rookie Isaac Guerendo, as Jordan Mason can even not be out there. Guerendo has nice measurement and pace, however we aren’t actually certain how comfy he’s in Kyle Shanahan’s offense but – a minimum of not on an every-down foundation. So, this offense may nonetheless be out of kinds as their rookie operating again will get comfy.

It’s additionally sounding like each Trent Williams and Nick Bosa are uncertain, that are huge blows to each side of the ball for San Francisco.

On the opposite facet of this recreation, we have now a Bears staff that has now misplaced six video games in a row, however have a minimum of proven a variety of battle during the last three weeks since their offensive coordinator was fired. Their previous three video games have all been towards divisional opponents, which you can argue make up three of the highest 4 groups within the NFC proper now, and every loss was by three factors or much less.

Now they head into Week 14 with their head coach simply having been fired after their inexcusable clock mismanagement that price them an opportunity to ship their Thanksgiving recreation with the Lions to additional time. I feel we’re going to see extra effort out of this Bears staff than we have now since their demoralizing last-second loss to the Commanders in Week 8.

Chicago’s offense will nonetheless be a little bit of a rollercoaster as Caleb Williams continues to discover ways to play QB within the execs, to not point out their offensive line wants some work, however their protection has a variety of expertise and I feel will return to being a feared unit. I like them to offer Brock Purdy hell all afternoon.

• Decide: Bears moneyline (+170 at ESPN Guess)

Chargers Over Chiefs

The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs performed arguably two of the 4 worst groups within the league over the previous two weeks, and didn’t beat both of them by greater than three factors. They need to have misplaced their Black Friday recreation with the Raiders, however acquired extremely fortunate that the Raiders suffered some type of miscommunication that led to an surprising snap that bounced off their QB’s shoulders for a fumble.

Previous to these two video games, the Chiefs misplaced to the Payments by 9 factors, beat the Broncos by two factors because of a blocked discipline purpose as time expired, and wanted additional time to beat the Buccaneers. It’s not irrational to say the Chiefs are only some actually fortunate breaks away from being 7-5. If you wish to return additional, you can say they had been additionally on the verge of shedding Weeks 1 and a pair of to the Ravens and Bengals, respectively.

This has been, in my view, the least spectacular Chiefs staff we have now seen with Patrick Mahomes underneath heart. Nevertheless, they proceed to simply get wins. They’ve simply merely gotten it completed. However I’m unsure they’ll in Week 14 towards the Chargers.

Jim Harbaugh’s squad has given up the fewest factors within the NFL, and they’re consistently successful the turnover battle. The Chargers have solely turned the ball over six instances, which is fewest within the league, and so they have compelled 17 turnovers. In what I believe will likely be a reasonably slow-paced, defensive battle, I give the nod to LA’s protection over Kansas Metropolis’s.

After a little bit of a quiet recreation final week from Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense final week, in what was their first recreation with out JK Dobbins, I feel they’ll have a greater reply Sunday evening.

• Decide: Chargers moneyline (+180 at DraftKings)