• The Lions take the highest slot: Detroit completed the 12 months first in total PFF grade and is the best-coached group within the league.
• The Steelers are in peril: Pittsburgh began 10-3 however is now amid a four-game skid, throughout which each the offense and protection have been dangerous.
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The checklist of groups that would win Tremendous Bowl 59 is right down to 14.
Whereas any a kind of groups theoretically has nearly as good a shot as any to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, the truth is that some squads are merely far superior to the opposite playoff contenders.
Based mostly on their regular-season efficiency, group expertise stage, teaching and expertise, beneath is the order of the groups with the best-to-worst shot of claiming victory in New Orleans on Feb. 9.
1. Detroit Lions
The Lions are the No. 1 group in PFF’s Energy Rankings and the highest-graded group in soccer, which is mirrored of their 15-2 file. Regardless of battling a rash of accidents on protection, Detroit has usually seemed unstoppable for many of this season resulting from its robust stability and excellent teaching employees.
Offensively, the Lions are arguably the league’s finest unit, rating second in EPA per play and first in success charge. The mix of elite playcalling from Ben Johnson, a multi-faceted assault (second in each passing and dashing EPA per play) and a loaded roster makes this group unbelievable. Although Detroit’s protection slid to 13th in success charge from Week 12 onward, this group flashed its gelling in Week 18 by shutting down the Vikings — and it’ll solely get more healthy.
All of the Lions must do to achieve their first Tremendous Bowl is to win two video games in Ford Discipline, a constructing during which they went 7-2 throughout the common season. After enhancing its roster following final 12 months’s NFC Championship run, it might be troublesome to choose towards Detroit to not solely attain this 12 months’s Tremendous Bowl however to win it.
2. Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
A lot for that “fraudulent” 9-0 begin. Sure, some luck was concerned early on, however the Chiefs performed a cleaner model of soccer throughout their last 4 video games with starters — and no person will need to face them (and their title panache) come playoff time.
Although Kansas Metropolis’s offense is just 12th in EPA per play and 16th in success charge, the Chiefs nonetheless have Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, who’re top-16 in PFF grade within the final three years of postseason play. The group’s elite inside offensive line, different skill-position standouts and Andy Reid’s creativity make this offense scary in its personal proper. Though Steve Spagnuolo’s protection didn’t fare as effectively — ending 14th in EPA allowed per play and 21st in success charge allowed — it nonetheless has the likes of Chris Jones, Trent McDuffie, George Karlaftis and Jaylen Watson, plus it has been robust within the final two postseasons.
The most important issues for the Chiefs going into the playoffs might be red-zone offense and cross safety. However from Weeks 13-17, Kansas Metropolis performed higher contained in the opponents’ 20-yard line, producing a 43.8% success charge (7th) whereas changing 55.6% of drives into touchdowns (19th). With Kansas Metropolis solely needing to win two video games at Arrowhead Stadium — the place Mahomes has misplaced solely twice within the playoffs — it’s in all probability silly to guess towards the Chiefs.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
What makes the Eagles so horrifying is the a number of methods they’ll win. Philadelphia is the one group within the league to rank within the high six in each offensive and defensive EPA per play, and it’s simply dotted with expertise up and down its roster.
On offense, Kellen Moore’s group boasts the third-highest-graded offensive line, powered by Jordan Mailata — the highest-graded participant in all of soccer. The Birds can gash you through Saquon Barkley and the run recreation, the place they’re third in EPA per play and second in yards earlier than contact per try, and so they can simply as simply punish corners with a cross recreation that includes A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, who each rank top-13 amongst receivers in PFF receiving grade. In the meantime, Philly’s protection is elite in any respect three ranges, rating first in success charge.
Ghosts of final season’s wild-card exit in Tampa Bay might linger, however this Eagles group feels prefer it’s in a considerably higher place than a 12 months in the past. A limitation might be Jalen Hurts and his play below strain — the place his 43.5 PFF grade is 25th out of 30 qualifiers — however Philly has each alternative to no less than attain the NFC Championship.
4. Baltimore Ravens
Actual doubts began to creep in in regards to the legitimacy of the Ravens late within the 12 months, however these had been largely squashed courtesy of a four-game profitable streak to shut out the season. With generational expertise on offense and a considerably improved protection, Baltimore is certainly an actual title contender.
Not sufficient could be mentioned about Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, who’re each the highest-graded gamers at their respective positions — and two of the three highest-graded offensive gamers within the league. Their excellence, mixed with a receiving corps that’s second in receiving grade, has fueled the NFL’s most effective offense. Furthermore, the Ravens protection patched deep foundational leaks round midseason: since Week 10, Baltimore is second in EPA allowed per play and ninth in explosive passes surrendered.
How effectively the Ravens’ offensive line performs might be essential, because the group had points early within the 12 months and ended solely 19th in total grade. Skepticism about Jackson within the playoffs, the place he’s recorded solely a 62.8 profession total PFF grade, additionally received’t be erased till he performs extra persistently and even reaches the Tremendous Bowl. Even then, this multi-faceted and gifted Ravens group is very formidable.
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5. Buffalo Payments
Some may view this a bit low for a group that’s 13-4 and the AFC’s No. 2 seed, however the Payments have some issues that would loom massive come postseason.
Josh Allen and Buffalo’s offense usually isn’t one. The MVP candidate fueled an offense that ranks third in EPA per play, sitting top-four in each sides of play. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s versatility in formations, playmakers in James Cook dinner, Khalil Shakir and extra and a powerful deal with duo must be sufficient to compete for a title.
Even with Gregory Rousseau (83.1 total PFF grade) and Christian Benford (82.8 PFF protection grade), Buffalo’s protection could cause some fear. Since Week 10, the Payments rank 19th in EPA per play, 25th in success charge and 22nd in first downs allowed. A scarcity of expertise at linebacker and a secondary, which ranks solely twenty first in group protection grade, might sadly contribute additional to seemingly unending playoff disappointments.
6. Minnesota Vikings
Going 14-3, solely to be ranked No. 6 on this checklist, may not appear honest to the Vikings. On the identical time, Minnesota’s path to the Tremendous Bowl as a wild-card entrant might be daunting, and uncertainties now have an effect on each side of the ball.
Sam Darnold has been one of many NFL’s breakout gamers this season and completed the common season ranked 10th in PFF passing grade. However in arguably his greatest take a look at to this point, Darnold carried out at his worst, posting a season-low 44.5 PFF passing grade towards a Lions protection down a number of influence starters. Darnold’s 3.6% turnover-worthy play charge — tied for the very best amongst any quarterback with 500-plus dropbacks — and lack of postseason expertise are troublesome.
Minnesota’s protection has been one of the crucial efficient by superior metrics all season, sitting third in EPA per play and sixth in success charge. But the Vikings possess solely the 16th-best protection grade and are 17th in explosive passing play charge allowed since Week 12, which means their blitz-heavy protection can get carved up if opposing offenses deal with further rushers effectively.
Will Kevin O’Connell’s elite playcalling, an unbelievable receiving corps and a dominant edge-rushing tandem propel the Vikings to a deep street playoff run, or will Darnold and a subpar secondary restrict Minnesota’s wildly spectacular season? That query seems like a real toss-up, though the Vikings are unquestionably higher than a No. 5 seed.
7. Inexperienced Bay Packers
With robust items on either side of the ball, the Packers might have the components for a deep run, however they’ll must show their mettle towards higher competitors.
Inexperienced Bay’s offense was usually robust for many of this 12 months, ending eighth in EPA per play and 11th in success charge. Josh Jacobs (90.6 PFF dashing grade) gives great stability to Jordan Love and a deep receiving group. Add Matt LaFleur’s ingenious playcalling, and the Packers offense received’t permit many defensive coordinators to sleep.
Moreover, Jeff Hafley’s protection confirmed indicators of promise in his first season, rating fourth in EPA allowed per play however 24th in success charge. Inexperienced Bay has game-changers in any respect three ranges in Rashan Gary (47 pressures), Edgerrin Cooper (84.0 total PFF grade) and Xavier McKinney (90.0 PFF protection grade).
So, why are the Packers solely No. 7? Not having Christian Watson (torn ACL) and Jaire Alexander (shoulder) is an enormous blow, and the group’s cross rush has been an issue all season. Secondary depth may be alarming, with just one nook (Carrington Valentine) producing above a 63.0 PFF protection grade.
Contemplating that the Packers went solely 2-5 towards playoff groups, LaFleur’s squad should show it could possibly take care of the convention’s elites. Then once more, Inexperienced Bay shocked the world within the wild-card spherical final 12 months and is able to doing it but once more.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs circled what seemed like a wayward season to win their fourth consecutive NFC South, however they’ll usually must depend on their high-powered offense in the event that they need to make a run.
In his first 12 months with Todd Bowles, offensive coordinator Liam Coen might have carried out even higher than Dave Canales did in the identical place. Tampa Bay’s offense is fourth in passing EPA per play and eighth in dashing EPA per play. A whopping eighth common contributors recorded a 73.0-plus total PFF grade within the common season, highlighted by Bucky Irving (90.6) and Mike Evans (89.0).
Though the Buccaneers had early issues on protection, they’ve course-corrected to rank fourth in EPA per play and second in success charge since Week 10. The caveat is that that stretch of video games was nearly totally towards poor offenses and nonetheless had troubles.
Tampa Bay nonetheless faces challenges in key areas, significantly with their cross rush, the place the group’s edge and inside defenders rank Sixteenth in pass-rush win charge, and in protection, the place their secondary holds the Sixteenth-best group PFF protection grade.
The Buccaneers have proven they’ll compete, notching wins over robust groups just like the Lions, Eagles (albeit an injury-depleted roster), and Chargers. They’ve additionally superior to the divisional spherical in three of the previous 4 seasons. Reaching that stage once more is effectively inside their attain, however they’ll want Baker Mayfield to chop down on errors—his 25 turnover-worthy performs lead the league—and their secondary to solidify as Antoine Winfield Jr. makes his return.
9. Los Angeles Rams
Few groups enter the playoffs as scorching because the Rams, who had been 9-2 of their final 11 video games with starters enjoying. Even then, this group has defensive deficiencies that seem arduous to beat.
Sean McVay’s offense is, but once more, a drive to be reckoned with — particularly with the trio of Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp on the sphere collectively. Since Nacua returned in Week 8, LA ranks 10th in EPA per play and fifth in explosive cross charge. Add in Kyren Williams (74.0 PFF dashing grade) and a stable offensive line, and the Rams will rating factors.
However the protection is the place the issues come up for the Rams. LA is just 27th in EPA allowed per play, 23rd in success charge allowed, 23rd in group protection grade and 27th in missed tackles. Even with Jared Verse (77 pressures) spearheading an excellent pass-rushing line of defense, the Rams’ secondary hasn’t lined effectively all 12 months.
Will Stafford keep effectively protected — the place he’s been significantly better than below strain — and propel an offensive explosion sufficient to account for a weaker protection? Los Angeles feels solely as doubtless so far as its offense will take it, however even that may not be sufficient.
10. Washington Commanders
For the Commanders to be on this place this quick is outstanding, however their odds of reaching New Orleans aren’t very excessive — simply 5%, per PFF ELO rankings.
Jayden Daniels emerged as one of many NFL’s brightest younger stars this 12 months, shining as a passer — the place he ranks fourth in PFF passing grade — and as a runner — the place his 88.2 PFF dashing grade is fourth amongst certified quarterbacks. Terry McLaurin (82.2 PFF receiving grade) was wonderful but once more, and Brian Robinson (plus Daniels) powered a top-five dashing offense by a number of superior metrics.
Nevertheless, Dan Quinn’s protection wasn’t practically as sharp in 2024. Bobby Wagner (89.9 total PFF grade) is the one Commanders starter graded above 70.0 total. Washington sits 27th in group protection grade and 26th in pass-rush win charge amongst its edge defenders and defensive linemen.
Daniels’ movie-like rookie 12 months might very effectively proceed by granting the Commanders their first playoff win because the 2005 season, however getting previous the divisional spherical can be arduous to check.
11. Los Angeles Chargers
Very like the Commanders, the Chargers surpassed their preseason 9.0 over/below win whole, reaching the playoffs in Jim Harbaugh’s first 12 months. Nevertheless, this group has flaws that may doubtless show deadly.
Justin Herbert turned in arguably his finest profession marketing campaign to this point, producing a 90.8 PFF passing grade (3rd) and a 91.7 total PFF grade (3rd) with a 6.1% big-time throw charge (4th). Even with Herbert’s near-flawless play and the emergence of Ladd McConkey (81.2 PFF receiving grade), Los Angeles’ offense hasn’t been overly dynamic. The Chargers are solely 13th in EPA per play, 18th in success charge and 15th in common yards per play.
LA’s bread and butter was its protection for many of the 12 months, a unit that completed the common season fifth in EPA per play and 10th in success charge. However preliminary dominance was stymied by dangerous performances towards elite offenses, corresponding to versus Baltimore, Cincinnati and Tampa Bay.
Harbaugh’s bunch ought to be capable to attain the divisional spherical for the primary time since 2018, touchdown a good matchup with the Texans. However except Herbert goes on a sustained heater and the protection pitches close to shutouts, the Chargers really feel shorthanded.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers
After beginning 10-3 with wins over groups just like the Commanders, Broncos and Chargers, Pittsburgh felt like a respectable AFC title risk. Then every part went downhill within the last 4 weeks of the season, and it doesn’t appear salvageable.
Pittsburgh’s offense seemed higher with Russell Wilson on the helm, however effectivity and manufacturing have each been a wrestle towards elite defenses. Since Week 14, the Steelers are 31st in EPA per play, 25th in success charge and 30th in common yards per play. You already know issues are going awry when George Pickens, far and away the group’s finest receiver, turns in a recreation like he did in a pivotal Week 18: seven targets, one catch, 0 yards, two drops, 42.4 PFF receiving grade.
What solely compounds the Steelers’ woes is a protection that has usually flatlined throughout the group’s greatest video games. Over the past 4 video games of the 12 months, Pittsburgh has ranked twenty fourth in EPA per play, twenty seventh in success charge and 30th in explosive passes allowed. This group nonetheless has prodigious expertise, particularly alongside its line of defense, however issues with communication (particularly on movement) and missed tackles have been devastating.
Wilson has confirmed his postseason mettle in years previous, and no person desires to see Cameron Heyward or T.J. Watt on the opposite aspect of the road of scrimmage in a win-or-go-home recreation. However given Pittsburgh’s extended playoff struggles — not profitable a recreation because the 2016 season — and the way this group collapsed, even beating the Ravens can be an actual shock.
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13. Denver Broncos
All reward is to ensure that Sean Payton mercifully ending Denver’s nine-year postseason drought, however the Broncos aren’t in a powerful place to make a ton of noise.
Denver’s protection was among the best within the NFL within the common season. The Broncos are second in EPA per play, first in success charge and first in landing drive proportion allowed. Pat Surtain II (87.4 PFF protection grade) is the headliner, however this expertise is deep, as evidenced by 4 gamers racking up 53-plus pressures.
Payton’s offense is the key concern going into the wild-card spherical. The Broncos completed the common season 17th in EPA per play, 20th in success charge and 19th in first downs gained. Bo Nix (76.4 total PFF grade) performed higher than anticipated, however his 72.8 PFF passing grade nonetheless ranks 20th amongst qualifiers. Even behind one of many extra unsung offensive traces in soccer, Denver is 16th in common dashing yards earlier than contact, as no beginning ‘again eclipsed a 71.0 PFF dashing grade.
For the Broncos to beat the Payments, they’ll want Nix to make high-level throws down the sphere whereas leaning closely on a well-coached protection. Making a run as a No. 7 seed is daunting sufficient, however an absence of offensive playmakers and a rookie QB doesn’t bode effectively.
14. Houston Texans
After coming into the 2024 season as one of many NFL’s actual Tremendous Bowl contenders, the Texans turned in an especially disjointed and disappointing season. Sure, Houston received the AFC South for the second straight 12 months, however this group hasn’t seemed cohesive all 12 months.
As a substitute of ascending into one of many premier offenses in soccer, Bobby Slowik’s group was maligned for just about the entire season. Accidents to Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell didn’t assist, however a nasty run recreation (22nd in EPA per play) and inferior play from C.J. Stroud (45th percentile in avoiding damaging performs) have sunk Houston. Throw in an inside offensive line that’s the second-lowest-graded within the NFL, and also you get an offense caught in impartial.
DeMeco Ryans’ protection was robust for many of the 12 months, rating sixth in EPA allowed per play and fourth in success charge allowed. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. mixed for 117 pressures, wrecking video games all 12 months, whereas Derek Stingley Jr. (74.9 PFF protection grade) holds the league lead in lowest catch charge allowed and passer ranking when focused. Nonetheless, 4 of Houston’s top-seven gamers in protection snaps generated a PFF protection grade beneath 63.0.
The chances that Stroud and the Texans offense lastly kick issues in gear after 19 weeks are, sadly, very low. This 12 months alone, Houston misplaced to the Titans and Jets whereas going 1-5 towards playoff groups (with a kind of losses a five-interception recreation from Jared Goff). It’s now troublesome to challenge numerous confidence onto what appeared like an especially promising group going into the season.
