There is no such thing as a division within the NFL via the 2024 season’s first 13 weeks extra tightly contested than the NFC West.
Simply two video games separate the primary place Seattle Seahawks (7-5) from the final place San Francisco 49ers (5-7) with the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Rams tied within the center with 6-6 data. With that in thoughts, let’s verify in on all 4 groups and decide which of the 4 is almost certainly to come back away with the NFC West crown 4 weeks from now.
* Future division odds through Caesars Sportsbook
San Francisco 49ers (+1200 to win NFC West)
File: 5-7
Remaining energy of schedule: 14th-toughest in NFL (.533 opponent win proportion)
Scoring offense: 22.5 PPG (Sixteenth in NFL)
Scoring protection: 24.6 PPG allowed (twenty fourth in NFL)
The San Francisco 49ers are experiencing their darkest attainable timeline in 2024. They’re in final place and within the midst of a season-worst three-game shedding streak. San Francisco has been outscored by a brutal 43 factors of their final two video games mixed (73-20) throughout a 38-10 loss on the Inexperienced Bay Packers and a 35-10 loss on the Buffalo Payments. That marked consecutive losses by 25 or extra factors for under the fourth time in franchise historical past (2005, 2006, 2015). It additionally made the 49ers the one defending convention champion because the 1970 AFL/NFL merger to lose back-to-back video games by 25 or extra factors.
The first motive for San Francisco’s struggles this season are accidents. Working again Christian McCaffrey, the 2023 NFL Offensive Participant of the Yr, not too long ago joined huge receiver Brandon Aiyuk within the membership of 49ers distinction makers out for the 12 months after struggling a PCL tear in Buffalo on Sunday evening. All-Professional left deal with Trent Williams (ankle) and 2022 NFL Defensive Participant of the Yr Nick Bosa (hip, indirect) additionally have not performed within the final two 49ers losses.
How massive a deal are these accidents to CMC, Williams and Bosa? Effectively, simply check out how completely different San Francisco is in these gamers’ respective 49ers careers after they play versus when they’re sidelined. It is a evening and day distinction.
San Francisco 49ers with and with out high stars
- 23-8 with McCaffrey and 4-5 with out him in his 49ers profession
- 43-25 with Williams and 3-8 with out him in his 49ers profession
- 54-24 with Bosa and 5-12 with out him in his 49ers profession
Whereas 11 groups within the final 19 seasons have made the transformation from having a shedding file to ending the common season on a successful streak of 5 or extra video games, it is unlikely to occur for this injury-plagued San Francisco outfit. SportsLine’s simulation mannequin offers the 49ers a 7% to win out and a 7% likelihood to make the postseason, so San Francisco followers needn’t get their hopes up for a miraculous turnaround.
Los Angeles Rams (+285 to win NFC West)
File: 6-6
Remaining energy of schedule: Sixteenth-toughest in NFL (.517 opponent win proportion)
Scoring offense: 21.2 PPG (twentieth in NFL)
Scoring protection: 24.2 PPG allowed (twenty first in NFL)
The Los Angeles Rams are in the very same spot they have been in a 12 months in the past at the moment via 12 video games with a 6-6 file. Final 12 months, they gained 4 of their final 5 video games to succeed in the postseason. Nonetheless, they’ve been outscored by a mixed 36 factors this season, which is the worst level differential amongst .500 groups or higher. It’s value nothing that a lot of that harm got here in a 41-10 Week 2 loss on the Arizona Cardinals.
A bit of fine information for the Rams is that quarterback Matthew Stafford is beginning to warmth up. He threw 9 touchdowns to seven interception within the rams first 9 video games of the 12 months, however the final three weeks, two of which have resulted in Los Angeles victories, Stafford has thrown for eight touchdowns and no picks. The unhealthy information is their closing 5 video games within the common season aren’t a cakewalk: vs. the Payments in Week 14, on the 49ers in Week 15, on the Jets in Week 16 after which residence video games in Week 17 (vs. the Cardinals) and Week 18 (vs. the Seahawks).
May the Rams pull one other rabbit out of the hat and make an identical late season push in 2024 like they did in 2023? Maybe, nevertheless it will not be simple.
Arizona Cardinals (+175 to win NFC West)
File: 6-6
Remaining energy of schedule: Sixth-easiest in NFL (.393 opponent win proportion)
Scoring offense: 22.2 PPG (seventeenth in NFL)
Scoring protection: 21.6 PPG allowed (eleventh in NFL)
Coming into their Week 11 bye, the Arizona Cardinals have been buzzing and on a four-game successful streak that had them out to a 6-4 file and sole possession of first place within the NFC West. They’ve since misplaced their final two video games with a 16-6 defeat on the Seattle Seahawks in Week 12 and a deflating 23-22 street loss on the Minnesota Vikings, a recreation by which they led 19-6 late within the third quarter.
Quarterback Kyler Murray’s ball safety has slipped throughout the slide with three interceptions up to now two video games after solely throwing three within the staff’s first 10 video games in 2024. Merely put, Arizona wants the environment friendly model of Murray again on high of his explosive twin menace means: the Cardinals are 5-0 when he has not less than two whole touchdowns in a recreation, and they’re 1-6 when he has one whole landing or much less.
Murray has began to search out the staff’s fourth total choose Marvin Harrison Jr. increasingly of late: he is caught three touchdowns in his final 5 video games whereas averaging 61.2 receiving yards per recreation after catching 4 within the staff’s first seven video games whereas averaging 42.9 receiving yards per recreation. Arizona tight finish Trey McBride is presently producing at a clip not beforehand seen by a decent finish within the fashionable NFL: he’s the one tight finish because the 1970 AFL/NFL merger with consecutive video games with not less than 12 catches. Oddly sufficient, he has but to catch a landing this season regardless of having the third-most receptions by a decent finish this season (73) and the second-most receiving yards by a decent finish this season (781).
If Murray can discover his high targets within the crimson zone extra often, the Cardinals might pull off a uncommon worst to first NFC West end from 2023 to 2024.
Seattle Seahawks (+160 to win NFC West)
File: 7-5
Remaining energy of schedule: Ninth-toughest in NFL (.583 opponent win proportion)
Scoring offense: 22.7 PPG (fifteenth in NFL)
Scoring protection: 22.1 PPG allowed (twelfth in NFL)
The Seattle Seahawks are beginning to spherical into kind on the proper time. They’re on a three-game successful streak led by first-year head coach Mike Macdonald’s protection. Seattle has allowed simply 14.7 factors per recreation throughout their three-game successful streak, the second-best mark by a scoring protection since Week 11 behind solely the Detroit Lions’ 10.7 factors per recreation determine in the identical span. The important thing has been limiting the massive play as they’ve allowed just one play from scrimmage to go for 25 or extra yards the final three weeks, the fewest allowed in your complete league on this span.
Seahawks protection, final three video games
|
PPG Allowed |
14.7 |
2nd |
|
Performs of 25+ Yards Allowed |
1 |
1st |
|
Yards/Play Allowed |
4.8 |
4th |
Their efforts of late on that aspect of the ball have been spearheaded by defensive lineman Leonard Williams, who has 4.5 sacks, six tackles for loss and a choose six within the final two weeks. His efforts within the staff’s 26-21 Week 13 win on the New York Jets — two sacks and a pick-six — earned him NFC Defensive Participant of the Week honors.
Pairing that form of defensive output with quarterback Geno Smith, whose completion proportion is the fifth-best in your complete NFL (68.8%) whereas throwing for the third-most yards within the NFL (3,241), makes the Seahawks a way more full squad down the stretch.
Verdict
The result of this division could come right down to whoever wins the Week 14 matchup on Sunday between the Cardinals and Seahawks in Arizona. Ought to the Seahawks emerge victorious, they’d have the face to face tiebreaker on lock whereas being up two video games within the standings. Seattle has gained six in a row towards the Cardinals, together with three straight in Arizona.
Nonetheless, ought to Arizona win in Week 14 to even their data at 7-6 apiece, the Cardinals have the a lot simpler path to the division crown. Seattle nonetheless has video games towards two NFC contenders within the Minnesota Vikings (10-2) and the Inexperienced Bay Packers (9-3) plus a matchup towards a Rams staff beginning to warmth up. For now, it seems the Seahawks protection would be the distinction maker between these two groups on Sunday, thus giving Seattle the definitive edge within the NFC West hunt with an basically three-game edge within the standings when factoring within the head-to-head tiebreaker.
