NFL Week 14 Betting Pocket book

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Estimated Studying Time: 28 minutes

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I’ve been placing collectively notes for each sport that Judah Fortgang and I hit on the betting episode of the PFF NFL Present every week. So this week, I’m taking a stab at placing collectively notes for each sport within the slate.

The thought is to place my analysis and ideas onto paper in a quick-hitting, bulleted format to assist myself work by way of what bets I need to place every week. Hopefully you’re capable of get related worth from this text as you’re employed by way of your decision-making course of. Every sport will embrace data-driven and contextual notes for either side of the ball with an “Angles I like” abstract on the finish, which rapidly summarizes how I’m most probably to wager the sport from each a spreads, totals and participant props perspective. 

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (TB -6.5, 46.5 TOTAL)

• The Buccaneers have been one of many larger go funnels within the NFL this 12 months (a constant theme for Todd Bowles’ defenses in Tampa Bay)

• • 67% go price confronted (4th highest)
  • 3,325 passing yards allowed (Third most)

• The return of Jamel Dean does shore up one of many weaker spots within the secondary, however we nonetheless noticed Bryce Younger throw for practically 300 yards on this protection final week

• I’m going again to the nicely with Raiders’ go sport alts right here. One of many largest attracts for doing that with Las Vegas is how concentrated its pass-game manufacturing has been since buying and selling away Davante Adams

• Most targets on Raiders offense since Week 7

• I don’t have a powerful lean on Bowers vs. Meyers. I’ll doubtless have bets round each.

• The Raiders compiled one in every of their greatest speeding performances of the season round Honest McCormick final week. He’ll doubtless get one other bigger alternative at carries, however this isn’t a matchup I need to assault in a sport Las Vegas will doubtless lean pass-heavy.

• The air needs to be the trail of least resistance on the opposite facet of the ball, too

• • Raiders protection success price allowed | 2024 season
    • Run protection: fifth
    • Cross protection: twenty second

• Tampa Bay remains to be splitting carries sufficient with Rachaad White (10-plus carries in every of the final three video games) that I gained’t be on Bucky Irving’s speeding over right here. However I don’t need to wager his unders both, given how environment friendly he’s been. 

• I anticipate the Buccaneers to funnel targets by way of Mike Evans down the stretch as a result of 1) Mike Evans targets are usually a great factor for the offense and a pair of) it does seem to be they need to get him to 1,000 yards to proceed his streak

• • However, the matchup right here for TB is softer to fit receivers than it’s to outdoors receivers. The Raiders are within the backside half of the NFL in single-high protection price, which is the place Evans has excelled
  • Raiders receiving yards allowed | 2024 season
    • Outdoors receivers: 1,020 (Seventh fewest)
    • Slot receivers: 1,057 (Sixth most)
  • Sterling Shepard and Cade Otton get nearly all of slot snaps for this offense. It’s value taking photographs on both or each at what needs to be pretty low traces, although I don’t assume there’s a ton of alt-line upside for both.

Angles I like: Raiders +7, Aidan O’Connell overs paired with Brock Bowers/Jakobi Meyers receiving overs, Sterling Shepard/Cade Otton reception overs

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CLEVELAND BROWNS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS (PIT -6.5, 43.5 TOTAL)

• We simply received this matchup two weeks in the past in a sport that was impacted by climate, however each offenses nonetheless confirmed some explosiveness within the passing sport. Mid-week, it doesn’t appear to be the climate will impression Sunday (temperature within the excessive 40s, rain supposed to carry off till evening).

• On the Pittsburgh facet of the ball, I’ll be attacking related angles to 2 weeks in the past with Russell Wilson’s means to hit throws downfield towards a Browns secondary that has given up deep ball manufacturing.

•Wilson has massive single-high vs. two-high splits this season, and the Browns are in single-high 68% of the time (2nd highest behind solely Pittsburgh)

• • • Wilson vs. single-high: 84.7 PFF passing grade (Third)
    • Wilson vs. two-high: 64.0 PFF passing grade (twenty eighth)

· Wilson’s 10.8-yard common goal depth vs. single-high is the second-highest behind Anthony Richardson. Wilson desires to push the ball downfield.

• George Pickens leads the NFL in deep receptions (8) and receiving yards (268) since Russell Wilson took over in Week 7.

• • Wilson accomplished 4 passes 20-plus yards downfield towards the Browns in Week 12, however only one went to Pickens. I wouldn’t anticipate that to be the case once more right here, so I’ll be betting on a giant sport from Pickens.
  • Is perhaps a chance to wager Mike Williams alts with a low receiving yardage line if Calvin Austin III misses the sport with a concussion. Williams may very well be extra of a full workload if that’s the case, and he’s able to pulling in a single or two downfield passes from Wilson.

• Since Jaylen Warren returned from damage in Week 6, each he and Najee Harris have performed 200-plus snaps.

• • The backfield is cut up, and Cleveland has been ok towards the run that I gained’t be focusing on something within the Steelers run sport. The Browns have additionally allowed the second-fewest receiving yards to gamers lined up within the backfield this season (203).

• The largest concern is Myles Garrett and Cleveland’s go rush attending to Wilson. Garrett had three first-half sacks vs. Wilson of their first assembly, and regardless of no sacks within the second half, Garrett and Dalvin Tomlinson mixed for 11 pressures after halftime.

• We noticed an uncharacteristically low-volume sport from Jameis Winston within the first assembly vs. Pittsburgh. The Browns leaned extra on Nick Chubb within the snow with 20 carries (inefficient with 59 yards on these 20 carries).

• Cleveland has struggled to run the ball all season, rating thirty first in common yards per run play (3.1) forward of solely the Seattle Seahawks.

• The Pittsburgh run protection has truly been one of many weaker items within the NFL over their final 5 video games:

Pittsburgh run protection since Week 8

• • • • twenty ninth in EPA per play allowed
      • twenty eighth in success price allowed
      • twenty ninth in common yards per play allowed

• The difficulty is, I don’t know if Cleveland is provided to capitalize on the shortage of explosiveness we’ve seen from Nick Chubb and the offensive line accidents that the Browns have needed to battle by way of in 2024.

• There are video games arising towards the Eagles and Ravens the place I’ll look to wager on this angle, although.

• I might be anticipating extra go sport quantity for Winston on this spot than we noticed on Thursday Night time Soccer within the snow. He’s proven the flexibility to place up yardage in a rush since taking on for Deshaun Watson.

• Joey Porter Jr. didn’t observe Jerry Jeudy within the first assembly (11 of 26 go snaps throughout from him). There’s an opportunity he may see extra of him after Jeudy’s massive sport on Monday Night time Soccer final week (which might be a downgrade for Jeudy; Porter is Pittsburgh’s greatest cowl CB and he tends to seize when he loses, which results in extra penalty yards than receiving yards towards him).

• Winston’s fashion of play tends to result in factors, whether or not that’s for the Browns or for opposing offenses who get brief fields as a consequence of turnovers. I’ll be on over 43.5.

• One final observe: Whether or not it’s Germain Ifedi or Jedrick Wills Jr. returning at LT this week, the ROLB for Pittsburgh is in a great place to select up a sack

• The Steelers predict Alex Highsmith to return from damage. Each he and Nick Herbig have been glorious and may get 1-on-1s in a winnable matchup with how a lot consideration the Browns have paid to T.J. Watt.

• I’ll be taking a look at Highsmith/Herbig sack props at what needs to be plus odds.

Angles I like: Over 43.5, Russell Wilson and George Pickens overs, Mike Williams alts if Calvin Austin III will get dominated out, Jameis Winston over go makes an attempt, Alex Highsmith/Nick Herbig sack props.

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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ TENNESSEE TITANS (TEN -3.5, 39.5 TOTAL)

• This might be Jacksonville’s first sport towards the Titans this season (they play once more in Week 17).

• I’m all the time serious about enjoying the tails on risky quarterbacks with upside towards dangerous go defenses. This qualifies as that sort of spot for Will Levis towards the Jaguars.

• • Levis’ four-highest PFF passing grades of the season have all come within the final 4 weeks.
  • Jacksonville has allowed 8.4 yards per go try this season (worst).
  • Levis’ opening line is sitting at proper round 205 yards this week. You’re getting good worth on alt traces at 250+ towards the worst go protection within the NFL for a participant enjoying his greatest soccer proper now.

• Calvin Ridley has been by far the crew’s prime receiver when he will get single protection, and the Jaguars are a man-heavy protection that makes use of single protection at one of many highest charges within the NFL. He’s a pure pairing with Levis in any same-game parlays.

• I don’t know what to make of the truth that Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is fourth within the NFL in receiving touchdowns (8) on simply 20 catches, however he’s +185 for an anytime TD once more this week.

• One of many larger points in Will Levis’ sport is his propensity to take sacks (37 —  fourth-most in NFL regardless of rating twenty seventh in whole dropbacks) behind a nasty OL, however Jacksonville has actually struggled to generate any sort of fast strain in latest weeks.

• Jaguars: 9% fast strain price since Week 8 (lowest in NFL).

• Jacksonville’s offense isn’t one outfitted to raise a backup QB like Mac Jones. Even after a comeback effort final week towards Houston, the Jaguars are averaging -0.2 EPA per play and 4.2 yards per play with Jones on the sector (each can be worst within the NFL for the complete season).

• The consensus opinion of the Titans protection is probably going greater than the outcomes on the sector (although Levis has put them in some dangerous conditions with sacks and turnovers). Tennessee is twenty seventh in factors allowed per sport and has allowed a TD on 31% of drives (third-highest behind Bengals and 49ers).

• Given the shortage of means to maintain drives we’ve seen from Jones (his 25% scoring drive price can be lowest in NFL), I feel there are viable builds round Titans alt spreads and/or Jaguars below 17.5 factors on their crew whole.

• The Titans have additionally been a bottom-five offense at changing within the purple zone, which may carry below 39.5 into play.

Angles I like: Will Levis and Calvin Ridley overs, Titans -3.5, Jaguars below 17.5 crew whole.

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CAROLINA PANTHERS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (PHI -12.5, 45.5 TOTAL)

• That is an absolute smash spot for Saquon Barkley. He comes into this sport averaging a league-high 6.1 yards per carry, the Eagles are 12.5-point house favorites and the Panthers are lifeless final in whole speeding yards allowed this 12 months (1,998).

• Barkley’s line displays that at 111.5 early within the week. Any wager on Barkley must weigh the competitiveness of the sport (Panthers staying shut = good for Barkley, blowout = potential for them to rotate in different rushers late within the sport) and the way a lot Philadelphia desires to proceed to feed Barkley to spice up his season totals.

• I are likely to lean towards staying away from Barkley given the blowout potential and intensely excessive traces going into the sport.

• However, I’ll doubtless take a stab at Kenneth Gainwell anytime landing as a result of potential for him getting run within the second half if Philadelphia is up massive.

• Carries within the purple zone for Eagles up 10-plus factors within the second half

• • • • • Barkley: 8
        • Hurts: 8
        • Gainwell: 6

• This matchup additionally units up about in addition to any within the NFL for Jalen Hurts as a passer.

• • Hurts’ clear vs. pressured passing splits:
    • Clear: 9.6 YPA (2nd to Lamar Jackson), 115.3 passer score (Third)
    • Pressured: 5.3 YPA (twenty seventh), 72.1 passer score (sixteenth)
    • Panthers have one of many worst go rushes within the NFL (25% strain price in 2024 is lifeless final) and are going through a proficient Eagles OL 
  • The Panthers are additionally top-five in single-high protection price and have struggled on in-breaking routes from outdoors huge receivers. That units up nicely for A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, who needs to be coming back from damage this week.
  • Jalen Hurts’ passing line is 209.5, which must also result in affordable totals for Brown and Smith. I don’t love attacking loopy alts as a result of I feel Philadelphia will have the ability to play from forward, however Hurts/Brown/Smith overs are in play.

• Since returning in Week 9, Bryce Younger is PFF’s Eleventh-highest-graded passer, however this would be the hardest take a look at he’s confronted up to now.

• Since Cooper DeJean received inserted into the lineup in Week 6, the Eagles have the NFL’s greatest protection by practically any metric you need to take a look at

Lowest scoring drive price allowed since Week 6

• • • • Eagles: 23%
      • Lions: 29%
      • Chargers: 30%

• The Eagles have been troublesome to run towards since early within the season, and on condition that Philadelphia ought to put up factors, we doubtless will see Younger in a number of apparent passing conditions.

• I’m working below the idea that Philadelphia is ready to management this sport from the leap, and that the Panthers offense struggles greater than we’ve seen the final two weeks vs. Kansas Metropolis and Tampa Bay.

Angles I like: Jalen Hurts passing overs as much as 250 yards, DeVonta Smith receiving overs (depending on traces… Must be decrease than Brown’s in a matchup that favors each), Kenneth Gainwell anytime TD.

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ATLANTA FALCONS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS (MIN -5.5, 45.5 TOTAL)

• Bijan Robinson doesn’t constantly get the quantity that we see from different elite working backs. He’s been over 20 carries in simply three video games this season.

• That is additionally an especially troublesome speeding matchup towards the Vikings. Offenses don’t run a lot towards them (31% run play price towards — 2nd lowest in NFL) they usually’ve been stingy towards the run when groups do go to the bottom (3.1 yards allowed per run play — Third lowest)

• The place Robinson can have an effect on this sport is as a receiver in what needs to be a high-volume passing sport for the Falcons.

• Kirk Cousins has virtually no mobility, and we all know that Brian Flores goes to ship strain.

• Robinson leads the NFL in receptions (25) and receiving yards (197) on performs charted as checkdowns this season.

• The Vikings have allowed probably the most receptions (47) and second-most receiving yards (352) of any protection within the NFL on checkdowns this season, which marks great place for Robinson receiving props

• That’s doubtless all I’ll be attacking on the Atlanta offense, although. The Falcons are twenty seventh in EPA per go play over their final three video games, they usually’ve been simply center of the pack towards zone blitzes, which Minnesota makes use of greater than every other protection within the NFL.

• I don’t love something on the Minnesota offensive facet both, which pushes me towards betting the below 45.5 sport whole.

• The Falcons have executed a great job of taking away deep photographs (11 receptions allowed 20-plus yards downfield — Third fewest in NFL), however the space they’ve been harm a bit has been on throws between the numbers and 10-19 yards downfield at intermediate depths (149.8 passer score allowed is highest in NFL on this a part of the sector).

•Justin Jefferson dominates targets on this portion of the sector (315 receiving yards on targets right here is probably the most within the NFL).

Angles I like: Bijan Robinson speeding unders, Bijan Robinson receiving overs, Justin Jefferson receiving overs, below 45.5 sport whole.

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NEW YORK JETS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS (MIA -5.5, 44.5 TOTAL)

• With this being a divisional matchup, now we have a multi-year pattern of how the Jets have defended the Miami passing assault since Mike McDaniel took over as head coach.

• • • Jets protection scheme vs. Miami in comparison with each different offense since 2022
      • Cowl 1: 15% vs. MIA | 26% vs. all different offenses
      • Cowl 2: 2% vs. MIA | 2% vs. all different offenses
      • Cowl 3: 30% vs. MIA | 29% vs. all different offenses
      • Cowl 4: 30% vs. MIA | 23% vs. all different offenses
      • Cowl 6: 18% vs. MIA | 11% vs. all different offenses

• The largest takeaway right here is that New York doesn’t play Cowl 2 (which the Dolphins see loads), however the Jets do spike their quarters and Cowl 6 utilization towards Miami whereas reducing man protection charges.

• Dolphins goal charges towards C3, C4 and C6 with Tua Tagovailoa at QB this season:

Jonnu Smith: 30%

With Tagovailoa getting the ball out extra beneath this season, I’m going to proceed betting Smith overs till the traces get raised greater. The Dolphins are in search of him loads on this offense. He additionally avoids Sauce Gardner/D.J. Reed not like Hill and Waddle on the surface. 

• Miami has actually struggled to run the ball this season (thirty first in EPA per run play forward of solely the Raiders), and I don’t anticipate that to alter on this matchup.

• • • • The Jets have had points at occasions this season stopping the run, however they’ve been comparatively robust towards outdoors zone runs, which the Miami run sport is constructed round.
        • 3.4 yards per carry allowed on outdoors zone (fifth fewest in NFL)

• Jalen Ramsey has been glorious this season for Miami, however he hasn’t been touring with prime huge receivers all through video games in 2024. Kader Kohou and Kendall Fuller each rank outdoors the top-90 qualifying cornerbacks in PFF’s superior protection grades.

• Davante Adams has 30 targets throughout the Jets’ final three video games (Third-most in NFL over that three-week span). Aaron Rodgers is forcing him the ball, and I feel he’ll get quantity on this matchup figuring out of the slot.

• • • He’s actually the one piece I’ve a lot curiosity in on the Jets offense. I would mess around with Rodgers passing below parlayed with Adams receiving overs to inform the story of Rodgers forcing him the ball in an in any other case inefficient outing (and capturing inverse correlation within the odds).

Angles I like: Jonnu Smith receiving overs, De’Von Achane speeding unders, Davante Adams receiving overs.

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NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ NEW YORK GIANTS (NO -3.5, 41.5 TOTAL)

• The Giants have had actual points stopping the run with Dexter Lawrence on the sector. However, him transferring to IR (elbow) solely additional hurts one of many league’s worst run defenses.

Most yards allowed per run play (together with penalty yardage) | 2024 season

• • • Commanders: 4.6
    • Saints: 4.4
    • Bears: 4.3
    • Giants: 4.3

The Saints have leaned fairly closely on the run this season below Klint Kubiak when taking a look at run price over anticipated numbers. Alvin Kamara has had one of many safer speeding roles within the NFL with 206 of the Saints’ 261 working again carries

• • • This looks like a spot the place Kamara will get a heavy workload with the Saints coming in as favorites and no Taysom Hill so as to add on to the NO run sport.

• The Giants have additionally struggled mightily towards deep passes, which is one other main characteristic of the Saints below Kubiak.

• • Derek Carr ranks among the many prime 10 quarterbacks within the NFL in proportion of makes an attempt 20-plus yards downfield this season. He’s additionally PFF’s highest-graded passer on these throws.
  • The Giants are permitting a league-high 20.6 yards per play on throws 20-plus yards downfield.
  • Given the accidents to Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the clear goal because the deep risk within the Saints’ offense.

• It seems like Drew Lock will stay at quarterback for the Giants for no less than one other week. Lock has been extraordinarily delicate to strain all through his profession, which may imply we see a greater model of him on this matchup.

• • Drew Lock clear vs. strain splits in his profession
    • Clear: 80.7 PFF passing grade
    • Pressured: 28.5 PFF passing grade
  • Lock was pressured on 50% of his dropbacks final week towards Dallas.
    • The Saints’ go rush has been towards the underside half of the NFL all season, significantly in latest weeks. New Orleans has posted a 28% strain price since Week 8 (twenty eighth in NFL).

• Malik Nabers has a 39% goal price towards man protection this season, and the Saints nonetheless run man at one of many greater charges within the NFL.

• • The Saints’ man protection has been ineffective, too (7.4 yards per go play allowed in man is highest in NFL).

• The Saints have additionally ranked towards the underside of the NFL towards the run (5.0 yards per carry allowed is 2nd behind solely the Giants for the complete season).

• This all units up for this sport to have sneaky offensive potential with a 41.5-point whole. I’ll be on the over, with SGPs constructed round each offenses.

Angles I like: Alvin Kamara speeding overs + anytime TD, Marquez Valdes-Scantling alt receiving overs + TD (lengthy TD reception), Malik Nabers receiving overs, over 40.5 sport whole.

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SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS (ARI -2.5, 44.5 TOTAL)

• Each NFC West sport carries important significance down the stretch, with all 4 groups within the division clustered round .500 coming into Week 14.

• We simply noticed this matchup play out in Week 12 as a low-scoring 16-6 win by the Seattle Seahawks at house.

• I’ve talked about it a number of occasions on the PFF Betting Present, however the Cardinals have been among the finest groups within the NFL when enjoying with a lead this season.

• • Cardinals EPA per play rank on offense | 2024 season
    • Dropping by a couple of rating: fifteenth
    • One-score sport: twelfth
    • Main by a couple of rating: fifth
  • We are able to probably reap the benefits of this by enjoying Cardinals’ first half paired with a bigger alt unfold for the complete sport. That tells the story of Arizona getting out to an early lead and shutting out the sport robust.

• One of many larger points for the Cardinals is that Seattle has been glorious at stopping the run in latest weeks, together with within the first assembly with the Cardinals.

• That’s going to place extra of the strain on Kyler Murray to shoulder the offensive load if that continues to be true.

• • Murray has had his two highest-volume passing video games within the final two weeks with 45 makes an attempt vs. the Vikings final week and 37 makes an attempt vs. Seattle two weeks in the past.
  • Trey McBride was the clear prime goal for Murray in that Week 12 assembly with 12 catches on 15 targets for 133 yards. He did a number of his harm after the catch with 6.3 yards after the catch per reception.

• The largest problem for Seattle’s offense has been its go safety, however Arizona virtually must scheme up strain for it to be efficient.

• • Cardinals: 17% fast strain price (twenty eighth in NFL)
  • Geno Smith: 189 pressured dropbacks (most in NFL)
  • Smith had success passing when Arizona introduced the blitz in Week 12 however did take a number of sacks: 9-for-11, 135 yards (3 sacks taken)

• I don’t have a lot religion in Seattle’s means to dam up the run sport up entrance. Kenneth Walker III is all the time able to breaking a couple of tackles and producing explosives, however Seattle is averaging a league-low 0.6 yards earlier than contact per designed run.

• Just like Arizona, that doubtless places a lot of the strain on Smith to hold the offense — which has been the case all season.

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba has emerged because the clear prime goal for Geno Smith in latest weeks.

• • Jaxon Smith-Njigba yards per route run by week:
    • Weeks 1-7: 1.10
    • Weeks 8-13: 3.05

• My favourite angle will doubtless be betting on Geno Smith discovering Jaxon Smith-Njigba, which results in one other massive sport for McBride

• • Aspect observe: McBride leads all tight ends in red-zone goal price however has no receiving touchdowns on the season. He’s due.

Angles I like: Geno Smith and Jaxon Smith-Njigba overs, Trey McBride overs. I additionally assume there’s a viable SGP angle round Arizona getting early success and controlling the sport.

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CHICAGO BEARS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (SF -3.5, 44.5 TOTAL)

• This 49ers roster is past beat up. San Francisco is probably going with out Nick Bosa once more this week towards Chicago. The crew can be nonetheless prone to be down Trent Williams on the opposite facet of the ball, together with its prime two working backs in Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason. 

• The one protection to permit a landing on a better proportion of their drives this season than San Francisco are the Jaguars, Panthers and Bengals.

• • The 49ers are coming off a sport the place Buffalo simply ran throughout them within the snow, however the run protection has been a difficulty for San Francisco past simply final week (twenty eighth in success price allowed on run performs this 12 months).
  • Nick Bosa has a 20% pass-rush win price this season (Sixth amongst all defenders with 150+ pass-rush snaps). The crew’s next-highest is Maliek Collins (12% – fifty fifth). The place does the go rush come from if Bosa sits?

• A struggling go rush is strictly what this Bears offense wants. Caleb Williams’ 49 sacks taken are eight greater than every other quarterback.

• D’Andre Swift’s speeding yard line will doubtless be within the mid-to-high 40s, and I’m keen to take a swing on that on this spot given the aforementioned 49ers run protection points.

• Rome Odunze might be my favourite piece among the many Bears receiving corps. San Francisco does a fantastic job towards outdoors huge receivers (2nd-fewest yards allowed), however the Bears rotate by way of receivers within the slot, and Odunze is a part of that rotation.

• • Odunze is the vertical slot risk with an ADOT over 14.0 yards when he traces up within the slot. That’s one space the place San Francisco has been just a little weaker (tenth in receiving yards allowed on throws 10-plus yards downfield to fit receivers).

• On the 49ers facet, I feel Isaac Guerendo and George Kittle are the highest gamers to focus on.

• • 51% of Guerendo’s speeding yards this 12 months have come on explosive runs (10-plus yards), and Chicago has allowed the sixth-highest explosive run price. The Bears’ run protection has been a difficulty in latest weeks, and Guerendo ought to get a lot of the run sport work with McCaffrey and Mason out.
  • The Bears have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to inline tight ends this season, they usually’re one of many largest Cowl 3 defenses within the NFL. Kittle averages a team-high 3.03 YPRR towards Cowl 3 this season and does a number of his harm inline.

Angles I like: D’Andre Swift and Isaac Guerendo speeding overs, George Kittle receiving overs and anytime TD, CHI +3.5.

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BUFFALO BILLS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS (BUF -3.5, 49.5 TOTAL)

• There are going to be alternatives right here for Kyren Williams given how the Payments are arrange structurally. Buffalo desires to remove explosives and play with mild bins on early downs at one of many greater charges within the NFL.

• • Payments protection in mild bins on 1st and 2nd down | 2024 season
    • 46% of performs (Ninth-highest)
    • 6.0 yards allowed per run play (2nd-highest)
  • The Rams have a 30% run price vs. mild bins on early downs (Seventh-highest)
    • Kyren Williams vs. mild bins on early downs
      • 4.9 yards per carry and three.5 yards earlier than contact per run
      • 54 makes an attempt (2nd-most in NFL to Bijan Robinson)

• The Payments’ go rush has underwhelmed over the past 5 weeks

• • 19% fast strain price (twenty third)
  • 28% strain price (twenty seventh)

• That’s notable as a result of Matthew Stafford has a few of the larger clear vs. strain splits within the NFL. If the Rams can run the ball and preserve Stafford clear, this matchup units up nicely for Los Angeles regardless of Buffalo’s success on protection on the entire this season.

• • Stafford clear vs. pressured
    • Clear: 90.3 PFF passing grade, 8.0 YPA, 110.3 score
    • Pressured: 28.2 PFF passing grade, 5.3 YPA, 50.1 score

• Cooper Kupp is my favourite goal among the many Rams huge receivers. He has a 31% goal price towards two-high protection shells (highest on offense) and will get nearly all of the snaps within the slot.

• • The Payments have allowed 995 yards to fit receivers (Ninth-most) and 842 yards to outdoors huge receivers (fewest in NFL)

• The Payments have additionally allowed by far the best variety of targets to working backs of any protection within the NFL. Despite the fact that Williams isn’t a prolific receiving again, it’s not a nasty matchup to take receiving overs for him.

• • Most targets allowed to RBs this season
    • Payments: 91
    • Buccaneers: 79
    • Broncos: 78

• On the opposite facet of the ball, the Rams protection is coming off back-to-back video games the place they’ve struggled to cease the run after a great stretch of play in run protection mid-season.

• • Particularly, they’ve had issues this season on duo runs, which make up a good portion of Buffalo’s speeding assault. Los Angeles is twenty seventh in success price and EPA allowed per rush towards duo.

• The Rams’ go rush has been one of many largest strengths on their protection (38% strain price on the season — Sixth-highest in NFL), however Allen is among the greatest quarterbacks within the NFL at making performs with our bodies round him.

• • Buffalo has posted 5.7 yards per pressured dropback (2nd-highest in NFL behind GB)

• We should always anticipate a number of Cowl 3 and Cowl 6 from the Rams given their most frequent protection varieties this season.

• • Khalil Shakir vs. C3 / C6: 125 routes, 37 catches on 43 targets, 380 yards (3.04 YPRR and 34% goal price are each by far highest on Buffalo’s offense)

Angles I like: Rams +4.5, Kyren Williams speeding overs, Khalil Shakir receiving overs. There are viable builds across the Rams successful in lower-scoring sport round their speeding sport, in addition to Payments successful a high-scoring sport that pushes Rams’ go sport (Cook dinner overs, Shakir Overs, Kupp overs).

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LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (KC -3.5, 42.5 TOTAL)

• I’ve been attacking the KC go protection since Jaylen Watson went down, and I’m not going to cease right here in a matchup towards Justin Herbert, who enters this matchup ranked fourth amongst qualifiers in PFF passing grade.

• • Chiefs go protection since Jaylen Watson damage (Weeks 8-13)
    • twenty sixth in EPA / go allowed
    • twenty sixth in whole passing yards allowed
  • The opposite component right here is that the pass-defense struggles have turned Kansas Metropolis into a reasonably heavy go funnel (4th in common yards allowed per run play). The J.Ok. Dobbins damage may lead the Chargers to lean much more into the go, which we’ve seen since their early-season bye

• Ladd McConkey has been glorious vs. man protection this season (4th-highest PFF receiving grade), which KC makes use of at a top-10 price, however his standing remains to be up within the air as a consequence of a number of accidents (shoulder and knee sprains). I’m just a little scared off of McConkey’s overs, given the potential of both damage flaring up if he tries to go, which we noticed occur within the second half vs. Atlanta final week.

• That leads me to consider that Josh Palmer and Will Dissly would be the main items I’m serious about within the receiving sport.

• • KC performs a good quantity of man protection, however they’re additionally second in two-high protection utilization behind solely Minnesota 
  • Quentin Johnston sees a big goal price lower vs. two-high seems, whereas Will Dissly’s 210 receiving yards are solely eight fewer than McConkey’s towards these coverages
  • Herbert has additionally been in search of Palmer downfield. A number of weeks in the past towards the Ravens (one other protection that performs a number of two-high), Palmer had 259 air yards. A number of of these downfield photographs join, and also you’re sitting in a great place for Palmer alts.

• As for the Chargers protection towards KC, I’m at a degree the place I’m going to fade the Chargers’ defensive success towards elite offenses (like Bengals and Ravens), however their enchancment below Jesse Minter is actual. This Chiefs offense is way from elite.

• • Patrick Mahomes’ 32 sacks taken are already 4 greater than he has taken in every other season of his profession
  • KC ranks simply twenty first in EPA per go play towards two-high protection shells, which the Chargers additionally deploy steadily

• That is purely narrative-driven, but it surely feels becoming that the Chargers (after years of Chargering) would have the ability to pull out a one-score win right here below Jim Harbaugh over a KC crew that has lived off one-score wins this season.

Angles I like: Chargers moneyline, Herbert passing overs tied to Palmer/Dissly receiving overs, Chiefs below 23.5 whole factors.

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CINCINNATI BENGALS @ DALLAS COWBOYS (CIN -5.5, 49.5 TOTAL)

• The Cowboys’ go protection has proven indicators of enchancment since getting Micah Parsons again in Week 10, however a number of that has been carried by high-leverage performs like sacks and turnovers.

• • 8 turnovers compelled on go performs (T-2nd-most in NFL)
  • 16 sacks (most in NFL)
  • 33% fast strain price

• The Bengals’ offensive line will be attacked, however Joe Burrow has executed a superb job all season of benefiting from performs when strain does get house.

• • 17% pressure-to-sack price ranks Eleventh amongst QBs (had been a bigger problem earlier in Burrow’s profession)
  • And, Burrow leads all QBs in PFF passing grade when throwing on the transfer this season to go together with 8.5 yards per try and a 114.3 passer score on these performs (each top-3 marks amongst all quarterbacks)
    • I feel the Cowboys’ go rush may have much less of an impression than we’ve seen the previous few weeks

• Cincinnati has had one of the best offense within the NFL with Tee Higgins wholesome and on the sector.

• • Most yards per play | 2024 season
    • Bengals with Higgins on the sector: 6.7
    • Ravens: 6.3
    • Lions: 6.0
    • Bengals with Higgins off the sector: 4.7 (can be twenty sixth)

• The Bengals are one of many pass-heaviest offenses within the NFL, so the most secure wager is focusing on the passing sport for Cincinnati.

• Dallas is tied for probably the most yards allowed per reception after the catch within the NFL this season at 6.5. In the meantime, Ja’Marr Chase leads the NFL in yards after the catch (545). This units up as a possible blowup spot for Chase towards a secondary with damage considerations at one in every of its cornerback spots.

• Cooper Rush has been getting the ball out of his arms faster than every other quarterback within the NFL at 2.26 seconds on common.

• • There isn’t a lot explosiveness to the Cowboys’ passing sport, however that fast time to throw additionally neutralizes what has been a rapidly deteriorating Cowboys offensive line
  • Trey Hendrickson has an edge over Chuma Edoga at left deal with, however I’m not frightened in regards to the Bengals producing a lot strain on this matchup

• It’s a great matchup on paper for the Cowboys’ tight ends. Cincinnati has allowed 783 receiving yards (Sixth-most) and eight touchdowns (2nd-most) to tight ends this season.

• • Jake Ferguson is trending towards returning after a two-game absence as a consequence of a concussion. Luke Schoonmaker has additionally began to ship a few of the most efficient video games of his profession since Ferguson went down in Week 11 vs. Houston
    • If Ferguson is again, he’s the safer choice, however there may very well be a dwell betting alternative primarily based on utilization early within the sport between the 2 tight ends

• Neither crew runs the ball all that always or all that nicely, however this can be a spot the place each defenses are bottom-five in EPA per play allowed towards the run in addition to two working backs who’ve very safe roles in Chase Brown and Rico Dowdle.

• • Offensive snaps performed since Week 9 (with ranks amongst RBs)

Angles I like: Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase alts (I’m comfy throwing Chase Brown props into SGPs alongside Burrow/Chase in Bengals onslaught builds), Jake Ferguson overs (potential Schoonmaker dwell wager relying on early sport utilization and sport script).

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