• Serving to you perceive market motion: This text will clarify the components that drive line actions in betting markets, serving to you assess whether or not a change is an overreaction or underreaction to those market influences.
• A guess for Chiefs-Browns: Sell the Browns assist and purchase the Chiefs at -4, which can be their ground value.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full entry to all our in-season fantasy instruments, together with weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Begin-Sit Optimizer and extra. Enroll now!
Estimated studying time: 8 minutes
Welcome to PFF’s weekly midweek market replace.
This text will clarify the components that drive line actions in betting markets, serving to you assess whether or not a change is an overreaction or underreaction to those market influences.
Harm, climate circumstances and public decide releases can all have an effect on line motion. Click on right here for a deeper clarification of what we goal to realize with this text.
Click on right here to leap to a recreation:
LAR@SF | WAS@NO | KC@CLE | BAL@NYG | NYJ@JAX | MIA@HOU |
DAL@CAR | CIN@TEN | TB@LAC | PIT@PHI | IND@DEN |
NE@ARI | BUF@DET | GB@SEA | CHI@MIN |
Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers
|
Lookahead |
Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | SF -3 | SF -2 |
SF -2.5 |
|
Complete |
47 | 48.5 |
49.5 |
Unfold: After opening up a degree beneath the lookahead line of three, a decide launch Monday afternoon pushed this to 2.5, which is at the moment the quantity throughout the board. I don’t anticipate this getting to three.
Complete: The full right here pushed up one level to 49.5, however we did see some resistance at that quantity, with a handful of books dropping again to 49. The market is break up now between 49 and 49.5.
Washington Commanders @ New Orleans Saints
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | WAS -3 | WAS -6.5 |
WAS -7 |
|
Complete |
49 | 44 |
43 |
Unfold: With the information of Derek Carr’s hand fracture, this quantity opened 3.5 factors increased than the lookahead line. Inside a minute of opening at 6.5, the unfold pushed out to 7 and to 7.5 shortly after earlier than hitting some resistance. You’ll want to put extra juice for a 7 on the time being.
Complete: After opening 5 factors beneath the lookahead, this pushed down a further level to 43. You may nonetheless discover some 43.5s on the market.
Situational Elements: Benefit Commanders coming off of their bye week.
Purchase/Promote: I’ll purchase the motion on Washington. Coming off of a bye towards an harm riddled Saints group, I’ll lock in -7 at -115. At -7.5, I’ll additionally incorporate Washington as a teaser leg.
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs @ Cleveland Browns
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | KC -6 | KC -6 |
KC -4 |
|
Complete |
44.5 | 42.5 |
45 |
Unfold: The market is reacting to yet one more one-score win for the Chiefs, as this has been pushed right down to 4 from the opening variety of 6. This feels just like the low level, and I doubt we see any 3.5s.
Complete: There was preliminary assist on the over earlier than a decide launch propelled it as much as as excessive as 46. From there, it’s come down and settled in at 45.
Purchase/Promote: I’ll promote the Browns assist and purchase the Chiefs at -4, which I imagine to be their ground value.
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | BAL -12.5 | BAL -13.5 |
BAL -15 |
|
Complete |
44.5 | 43 |
43 |
Unfold: It’s been one-way motion on the Ravens taking this unfold all the best way to fifteen. There are nonetheless loads of 14.5s on the market, though you aren’t capturing a lot worth with that quantity. That is the primary recreation this 12 months with an expansion past two touchdowns.
Complete: This complete reached 43.5 earlier than settling again at 43. Nonetheless, a few 43.5s stay.
Situational Elements: The Ravens are coming off of their bye week.
New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | NYJ -3.5 | NYJ -3 |
NYJ -3 |
|
Complete |
40.5 | 40.5 |
40.5 |
Unfold: There’s been some assist early within the week on the Jets on this matchup, transferring this line out to three.5 at some books. We’ve but to see it get any increased than that. It’ll be Mac Jones as soon as once more after Trevor Lawrence landed on IR.
Complete: On Sunday evening, we noticed this line dip as little as 39.5 earlier than popping again as much as the opening 40.5. There are nonetheless some 40s on the market.
Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | HOU -2.5 | HOU -1.5 |
HOU -2.5 |
|
Complete |
46.5 | 46.5 |
47 |
Unfold: Shortly after opening, the preliminary transfer right here was from 1.5 to 2.5. A decide launch on the Texans took them out to three earlier than it settled at a juiced -2.5. You’ll want to put extra to get both aspect of this key quantity with the market break up between 2.5 and three.
Complete: There was a slight tick as much as 47 from the opening 46.5. There may be not a lot else to report right here.
Situational Elements: Benefit Texans coming off of their bye week.
Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | DAL -1.5 | CAR -1 |
CAR -2.5 |
|
Complete |
44 | 42.5 |
43 |
Unfold: Flipped favourite from the lookahead line, and that assist has continued for Carolina, pushing this line to almost a subject aim. It stays to be seen if we see a 3 pop up, but when it does, I don’t imagine it should final lengthy.
Complete: There may be some disagreement available in the market about the place this complete ought to be, because it at the moment ranges between 42.5 and 43.5.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | CIN -3.5 | CIN -4 |
CIN -5 |
|
Complete |
49 | 47 |
46.5 |
Unfold: This unfold bought out to -5 earlier than Monday Night time Soccer and re-opened at that quantity after the Bengals squeaked out a win in Dallas. Tennessee was on the flip aspect of that equation with a late loss to Jacksonville after main for 48 of the primary 54 minutes of the sport. This quantity ought to stay on this lifeless zone up till kickoff.
Complete: Regardless of an eruption recreation from Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, this complete has slid down a half-point to 46.5 after the Bengals and Titans each went underneath their recreation totals final week. We had been on the underneath within the Bengals-Cowboys recreation final week with an inflated complete, however with this one three factors beneath the lookahead, the market appears to be like to have corrected itself.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles Chargers
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | LAC -3 | LAC -3.5 |
LAC -3 |
|
Complete |
46.5 | 45 |
45.5 |
Unfold: This line has moved down a half-point to three in favor of the Bucs. There are a few 2.5s on the market, however they’re closely juiced on Los Angeles. I imagine this finally closes at 3.
Complete: The full opened 45 and has solely risen a half-point to 45.5 as issues at the moment stand.
Purchase/Promote: I’m fading this transfer on the Bucs and shopping for the Chargers at -3. There are some -2.5s on the market, nevertheless it’s not broadly out there. If you may get higher than -124, I want the -2.5 fairly than a -3 at -105.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | PHI -4.5 | PHI -4 |
PHI -5 |
|
Complete |
45.5 | 44 |
42 |
Unfold: After opening at 4, the Eagles reached as excessive as 5.5, however the market has since returned to five. We’re seeing some 4.5s floor now and even a few 4s at distinguished books.
Complete: A low-scoring affair is doubtlessly on the docket as we’ve seen this complete drop two factors after opening almost two factors beneath the lookahead. Control the climate radar right here, as rain is on the forecast.
Purchase/Promote: One other shopping for alternative on the Steelers catching extra factors than they need to be. I’m locking within the +5 and banking on the Steelers’ go rush disrupting Jalen Hurts, who has been vulnerable to battle towards stress. I’ll be on the lookout for alternate strains on the Steelers as properly.
Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | DEN -3.5 | DEN -5.5 |
DEN -4 |
|
Complete |
43.5 | 42.5 |
44 |
Unfold: There was loads of assist on the Colts, with a decide launch being the primary driver behind the transfer from 5.5 to as little as 3.5. I count on a few of these final 3.5s to show into 4s sooner fairly than later.
Complete: The full has jumped previous the lookahead variety of 43.5 to as excessive as 45. That prime water mark didn’t final lengthy, and the market is at the moment break up between 44 and 44.5.
New England Patriots @ Arizona Cardinals
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | AZ -7 | AZ -6 |
AZ -5.5 |
|
Complete |
45.5 | 44 |
46 |
Unfold: We’ve seen this unfold far and wide, getting as little as 4 earlier than leaping again up 1.5 factors to the present variety of 5.5. We’ll see how the Patriots come out of their bye week provided that Jerod Mayo is doubtlessly teaching for his job.
Complete: On the opening quantity, I preferred the over 44. However with a two-point transfer as much as 46 early within the week, it’s a go for me now.
Situational Elements: Benefit Patriots coming off of their bye week.
Buffalo Payments @ Detroit Lions
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | DET -2.5 | DET -2 |
DET -2 |
|
Complete |
51.5 | 52.5 |
54.5 |
Unfold: The primary transfer right here was Detroit to 2.5, however most books have returned to the opening variety of 2. This ought to be the closing quantity.
Complete: Regular motion on the over has pushed this as much as 55. At that time, we noticed some assist for the underneath, because it ticked again right down to 54.5 throughout the board.
Situational Elements: There’s a slight relaxation benefit for the Lions having performed on Thursday Night time Soccer.
Inexperienced Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | GB -3 | GB -2 |
GB -3 |
|
Complete |
46.5 | 46 |
46.5 |
Unfold: This can be a vital transfer right here, as we’ve seen the Packers transfer out to a field-goal favourite on the highway. There are nonetheless some 2.5s with further juice, however the market is leaning nearer to three.
Complete: The primary transfer right here was a bounce as much as 47 earlier than slipping again right down to 46.5.
Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings
|
Lookahead |
Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | MIN -6 | MIN -6.5 |
MIN -7 |
|
Complete |
42.5 | 43 |
43.5 |
Unfold: After opening a half-point increased than the lookahead, the Vikings moved out to 7 fairly shortly. There was some preliminary buyback on the Bears at that quantity, dropping the road again to the opener of 6.5, nevertheless it has since returned to 7. It is a good indication that it’ll shut someplace between these two numbers.
Complete: There’s been some upward motion right here, however not a ton. The market is at the moment break up between 43.5 and 44.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Las Vegas Raiders
|
Lookahead |
Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | ATL -3.5 | ATL -4 |
ATL -5 |
|
Complete |
45 | 43 |
44 |
Unfold: After opening at 4, this line jumped to five, with fairly a couple of books nonetheless at 4.5. This recreation ought to shut on this neighborhood, and I don’t count on rather more motion come what may.
Complete: It’s been a sluggish but regular climb on this complete, because it creeps again towards the lookahead variety of 45. A couple of books have gone to 44.5, and we’ve but to see a lot resistance at that quantity.
