• Serving to you perceive market motion: This text will clarify the components that drive line actions in betting markets, serving to you assess whether or not a change is an overreaction or underreaction to those market influences.
• A guess for Texans-Chiefs: I’m shopping for Kansas Metropolis at their flooring value and locking in -2.5. Mahomes has proven he can play by means of such a harm earlier than. There’s additionally an opportunity Hollywood Brown makes his debut, although it’s extra prone to occur on Christmas Day in opposition to the Steelers. If Mahomes fits up, this line ought to shut at or above 3.
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Estimated studying time: 8 minutes
Welcome to PFF’s weekly midweek market replace.
This text will clarify the components that drive line actions in betting markets, serving to you assess whether or not a change is an overreaction or underreaction to those market influences.
Damage, climate circumstances and public decide releases can all have an effect on line motion. Click on right here for a deeper rationalization of what we intention to realize with this text.
Click on right here to leap to a sport:
DEN@LAC | HOU@KC | PIT@BAL | CLE@CIN | PHI@WAS
DET@CHI | ARI@CAR | NYG@ATL | LAR@NYJ | TEN@IND
MIN@SEA | NE@BUF | JAX@LV | SF@MIA | TB@DAL | NO@GB
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | LAC -3 | LAC -3 | LAC -2.5 |
| Whole | 42 | 42.5 | 42 |
Unfold: The road moved off the important thing variety of 3, making the Chargers a 2.5-point favourite. A number of books nonetheless supply the Chargers at -3, however the market has largely settled beneath that quantity.
Whole: The entire has seen a slight dip, transferring all the way down to 42 from the opening 42.5. Nonetheless, some 42.5s are nonetheless out there.
Houston Texans @ Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | KC -4 | HOU -2.5 | KC -2.5 |
| Whole | 44.5 | 41 | 41.5 |
Unfold: Wild swings within the unfold are clearly tied to Patrick Mahomes’ ankle standing forward of this Saturday’s matchup. After Week 15, head coach Andy Reid initially known as Mahomes “day-to-day,” which later shifted to “week-to-week.” That uncertainty briefly made Houston a 3.5-point favourite on Monday. Nonetheless, rising optimism about Mahomes’ availability has swung the road again in Kansas Metropolis’s favor, making them almost a 3-point favourite. A lot of the market is transferring towards -3, although some 2.5s are nonetheless out there.
Whole: The uncertainty surrounding Mahomes has impacted the full, which dipped as little as 39.5 earlier than rebounding to 42 on Tuesday afternoon. The market has largely settled at 41.5 throughout the board.
Purchase/Promote: I’m shopping for Kansas Metropolis at their flooring value and locking in -2.5. Mahomes has proven he can play by means of such a harm earlier than. There’s additionally an opportunity Hollywood Brown makes his debut, although it’s extra prone to occur on Christmas Day in opposition to the Steelers. If Mahomes fits up, this line ought to shut at or above 3.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | BAL -4 | BAL -6.5 | BAL -6.5 |
| Whole | 46.5 | 46.5 | 44.5 |
Unfold: The market is presently cut up between 6 and 6.5. It’s unlikely this line closes outdoors of these two numbers.
Whole: A decide launch on Monday morning introduced the full down from the opening 46.5 to 45. That downward pattern continued late Tuesday evening, with the full dipping additional to 44.5. Potential wind within the forecast could also be contributing to this motion.
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | CIN -5.5 | CIN -7 | CIN -7.5 |
| Whole | 49 | 49.5 | 47 |
Unfold: Some books briefly dropped this line to six.5 on Monday morning, however they’ve returned to 7, according to the broader market. Now, the road has moved to 7.5 throughout the board.
Whole: A decide launch on an AFC North underneath introduced the full down from 49.5 to 48. After holding there for twenty-four hours, it dipped once more to 47. Chilly temperatures are anticipated, however in any other case, the forecast seems favorable.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | PHI -2.5 | PHI -3.5 | PHI -3 |
| Whole | 48.5 | 46 | 45.5 |
Unfold: A lot of the market has moved to Philadelphia as a juiced 3-point favourite. There are nonetheless some 3.5s out there, however you will have to pay additional juice to again Washington at that quantity.
Whole: A slight adjustment has diminished the full by half a degree to 45.5 for this divisional matchup. This determine is 3.5 factors decrease than their Week 11 assembly.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | DET -8 | DET -7 | DET -6.5 |
| Whole | 46 | 46.5 | 48 |
Unfold: A wave of accidents for the Lions has moved this line down from 7 to six.5 throughout the board.
Whole: The entire opened at 46.5 however re-opened at 48 on Tuesday morning after the Bears’ Monday Night time Soccer sport. There hasn’t been a lot motion since.
Purchase/Promote: Dan Campbell stated in a press convention that accidents gained’t be an excuse for his staff. Whereas that mindset can’t final without end, I don’t see it impacting this sport. I’m taking the Lions at -6.5.
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | AZ -3.5 | AZ -4 | AZ -4.5 |
| Whole | 46 | 46.5 | 47 |
Unfold: This line has moved up half a degree to 4.5 from the opener. Some 4s are nonetheless out there, and should you search, you possibly can even discover just a few off-market 3.5s.
Whole: The market noticed assist for the over after opening at 46.5, pushing the full as much as 48. Nonetheless, resistance introduced it again all the way down to 47.
Situational Components: The Panthers have a slight journey benefit on this matchup.
New York Giants @ Atlanta Falcons
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | ATL -8.5 | ATL -10 | ATL -8.5 |
| Whole | 41.5 | 42.5 | 40.5 |
Unfold: The market was already leaning towards New York earlier than Tuesday night’s announcement that Kirk Cousins could be benched for Michael Penix Jr. By then, the road had moved to 9, and the change at quarterback resulted in a half-point adjustment. Most books now have the unfold at 8.5, although you possibly can nonetheless discover numbers starting from 8 to 9.
Whole: The entire was sitting between 41 and 41.5 earlier than the information about Cousins. After the announcement, the road dropped to 40.5 throughout the board.
Purchase/Promote: As famous in prior weeks, we have been ready for Cousins to be benched to focus on a stay over. I imagine the market overreacted, so I’m locking within the over at 40.5. Penix has proven a willingness to push the ball downfield, and if the Falcons can replicate even a part of their success in opposition to the Raiders, they need to create short-field alternatives.
Los Angeles Rams @ New York Jets
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | LAR -2.5 | LA -3 | LA -3 |
| Whole | 46.5 | 47 | 46.5 |
Unfold: The road has remained regular between 3 and three.5, with the market nonetheless cut up.
Whole: The one motion has been a slight half-point drop to 46.5.
Situational Components: That is one other case the place a staff coming off Thursday Night time Soccer has additional relaxation earlier than touring throughout the nation.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | IND -4 | IND -4.5 | IND -3.5 |
| Whole | 42 | 43 | 42.5 |
Unfold: A quarterback change in Tennessee has moved this line down a full level to three.5, with the market viewing Mason Rudolph as an improve over Will Levis. We haven’t seen the road drop to three but, but when it does, count on assist for the Colts.
Whole: A slight adjustment has introduced the full all the way down to 42.5, although some 43s are nonetheless out there.
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | MIN -2.5 | MIN -4 | MIN -3 |
| Whole | 45.5 | 42 | 42 |
Unfold: Early cash on the Seahawks introduced this line all the way down to the important thing variety of 3. It briefly touched 2.5, however that didn’t final lengthy earlier than being corrected.
Whole: The entire dropped from the lookahead quantity, largely resulting from Geno Smith’s knee harm on Sunday. Whereas preliminary studies have been constructive, the market hasn’t moved considerably from the opening determine.
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Payments
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | BUF -11.5 | BUF -14 | BUF -14 |
| Whole | 46.5 | 44.5 | 46.5 |
Unfold: The road briefly examined -13.5 earlier than returning to 14, with just a few books even posting 14.5.
Whole: A decide launch on the over pushed the full from 45 to as excessive as 47.5 earlier than settling again down at 46.5. The quantity continues to dip barely, with some books now at 46.
Purchase/Promote: I’m backing the preliminary transfer and locking within the over 46 at -112. There’s an actual probability the Payments get there on their very own. A fast look on the MVP market exhibits Josh Allen is enjoying at an elite degree proper now. The Payments haven’t scored fewer than 30 factors since Week 6, with Weeks 4 and 5 being the one different instances they fell quick this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Las Vegas Raiders
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | LV -1.5 | LV -1 | PK |
| Whole | 39.5 | 40 | 39.5 |
Unfold: This unfold has bounced backwards and forwards between Jaguars -1 and a decide’em. Relying on the e-book, yow will discover both staff listed as a slight underdog.
Whole: The entire hasn’t moved considerably, with only a slight adjustment all the way down to 39.5.
Purchase/Promote: I’ll promote the Jaguars’ motion and purchase into the Raiders at decide’em. Whereas 10 consecutive losses don’t encourage confidence, Aidan O’Connell is trending towards enjoying. The market’s response appears influenced by the Raiders’ Monday Night time Soccer efficiency, led by Desmond Ridder.
Situational Components: The Jaguars face a difficult cross-country journey.
San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | MIA -1 | MIA -2.5 | PK |
| Whole | 48 | 46.5 | 44.5 |
Unfold: Momentum on the 49ers has shifted this line to a decide’em. Some books nonetheless listing Miami as a 1 to 1.5-point favourite. As talked about beforehand, this vary of numbers doesn’t maintain vital worth within the betting market.
Whole: The entire has progressively decreased to 44.5 over the week. It hasn’t dipped beneath that mark but.
Situational Components: The 49ers have an edge with additional relaxation from enjoying on Thursday Night time Soccer, although that benefit is considerably offset by the cross-country journey to Miami.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | TB -4 | TB -4 | TB -3.5 |
| Whole | 47 | 47.5 | 48 |
Unfold: The preliminary transfer noticed the unfold drop from 4 to three.5. The market stays cut up between these two numbers, and it’s unlikely this line will transfer down to three.
Whole: Early motion on the over pushed the full as excessive as 49.5 earlier than it settled again at 48. There are nonetheless a number of 48.5s out there.
New Orleans Saints @ Inexperienced Bay Packers
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | GB -13 | GB -13 | GB -14.5 |
| Whole | 41.5 | 43 | 42.5 |
Unfold: Ongoing quarterback points for the Saints have the Packers as favorites, ranging between 14 and 14.5 factors. It’s that point of 12 months when bigger spreads grow to be extra widespread. Nonetheless, just a few market-making books nonetheless listing this at 13.5.
Whole: Whereas the opener was larger than the look-ahead line, there was constant assist for the underneath. The entire has dropped to 42.5, with a number of books now at 42 and a few even as little as 41.5.
