Welcome to PFF’s weekly midweek market replace.
This text will clarify the components that drive line actions in betting markets, serving to you assess whether or not a change is an overreaction or underreaction to those market influences.
Damage, climate circumstances and public choose releases can all have an effect on line motion. Click on right here for a deeper rationalization of what we goal to realize with this text.
Click on right here to leap to a sport:
SEA@CHI | LAC@NE | DEN@CIN | ARI@LAR | DAL@PHI | NYJ@BUF TEN@JAX | CAR@TB | LV@NO | IND@NYG |MIA@CLE | GB@MIN
ATL@WAS | DET@SF
Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | SEA -1.5 | SEA -3 | SEA -4 |
| Complete | 40.5 | 40.5 | 42 |
Unfold: This unfold has been shifting all week. After opening 1.5 factors above the lookahead, it moved to 4. Some market-leading books have taken it out to 4.5, however most books are at 4.
Complete: A choose launch on the over pushed this complete to as excessive as 44. It has since slid again right down to 42. Some 42.5s are nonetheless on the board.
Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | LAC -5.5 | LAC -5.5 | LAC -4 |
| Complete | 41.5 | 42 | 42 |
Unfold: One-way motion on the Patriots has moved this unfold from the opening 5.5 to 4. No e-book has taken it beneath that quantity, however a number of 4.5s stay.
Complete: There hasn’t been a lot motion, however there may be actually disagreement available in the market about this complete. Presently, you could find as little as 42 and as excessive as 43.5.
Situational Elements: The Chargers’ slight relaxation benefit after enjoying on TNF is mitigated by the necessity to journey cross-country.
Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | CIN -3 | CIN -3 | CIN -3 |
| Complete | 47.5 | 47.5 | 49.5 |
Unfold: The market is presently break up between 3 and three.5. We’ve but to see any e-book surpass both of these numbers. It’s a essential matchup right here, with the Bengals needing a win if they need any likelihood at a playoff look. This isn’t essentially the spot, however these “must-win” conditions can present worth betting in the wrong way.
Complete: This complete ticked as much as 48 inside minutes of opening, and on Monday morning, a choose launch pushed this complete out to 50. We’ve seen some market correction as we’ve settled in at a consensus of 49.5.
Situational Elements: The Broncos may have a slight relaxation benefit, having performed on TNF.
Purchase/Promote: I’ll purchase into this motion on the whole and lock within the over 49 at bet365. A 49.5 is nice, too, and it’s discovered at most different retailers.
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | LA -3 | LA -5 | LA -7 |
| Complete | 49.5 | 48 | 47.5 |
Unfold: The Rams have gotten wholesome and located their stride, as mirrored within the transfer out to 7 on this sport, a far cry from the field-goal lookahead line. We haven’t seen any books take it to 7.5, however there hasn’t been sufficient Cardinals assist to push this again beneath a landing. There are nonetheless some moderately priced 6.5s on the market.
Complete: Slight transfer down from 48 to 47.5. A handful of books spent a while at 49 early within the week, however that was by no means a consensus value.
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | PHI -11.5 | PHI -10.5 | PHI -9 |
| Complete | 44.5 | 43 | 41 |
Unfold: There was a reasonably important transfer right down to beneath 10, with the standing of Jalen Hurts very a lot in query. The Eagles suffered their first loss since mid-October after some late-game heroics from Jayden Daniels in Week 16. This was after Hurts exited with a concussion, and he’s but to clear protocol. This line is baking in a definite likelihood that Hurts doesn’t play.
Complete: Related story with the whole, given a 2-point drop from the opener, which was already 1.5 factors beneath the lookahead market. If Hurts can’t go, it’ll be Kenny Pickett as soon as extra.
New York Jets @ Buffalo Payments
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | BUF -9.5 | BUF -9.5 | BUF -8.5 |
| Complete | 49 | 46 | 47 |
Unfold: There may be some huge motion right here, as this unfold reached as excessive as 11 earlier than falling beneath the lookahead line of 9.5. This newest motion was fueled by a choose launch on the Jets once they had been north of a 10-point canine.
Complete: This complete has hovered within the 46 to 47.5 vary, so seemingly some differing opinions available in the market pushing this in reverse instructions. We’ve landed on a consensus of 47, however you’ll be able to nonetheless discover some 46.5s at a number of books.
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | JAX -1 | TEN -1 | JAX -1 |
| Complete | 39.5 | 40 | 39.5 |
Unfold: One other case of flipped favorites by means of some comparatively meaningless numbers. There are a few books at 1.5.
Complete: This bounced backwards and forwards between 40 and 40.5 earlier than a choose launch on the underneath moved it to 39.5.
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | TB -8.5 | TB -8 | TB -8 |
| Complete | 47.5 | 48 | 48.5 |
Unfold: This line has been secure across the opening variety of 8, however we’re beginning to see some 7.5s seem.
Complete: This complete jumped out to as excessive as 49.5 earlier than settling in at 48.5. Not a lot motion except for that.
Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | NO -3 | NO -1.5 | LV -1 |
| Complete | 40.5 | 39.5 | 37.5 |
Unfold: Flipped favourite now, with the Raiders at -1 coming off their first win since September. Final week’s win pushed the Raiders out of the No. 1 spot for the 2025 draft, and Antonio Pierce’s post-game press convention made it clear there could be no efforts to tank in favor of bettering draft place. There have been some rumblings of a Derek Carr return this week, however the market clearly believes that to be noise.
Complete: The unique opener right here was 39.5, but it surely re-opened at 37.5 after the Saints had been blanked at Lambeau Discipline on Monday evening.
Purchase/Promote: With motivation a non-issue within the Las Vegas locker room, and one other week of Spencer Rattler on deck, I’m taking the Raiders at -1.
Indianapolis Colts @ New York Giants
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | IND -6.5 | IND -7 | IND -7.5 |
| Complete | 39.5 | 41 | 40.5 |
Unfold: After opening at 7, this line bounced backwards and forwards between 7.5 and eight all through the week. I anticipate 7.5 to be the closing quantity.
Complete: There has solely been a slight transfer right down to 40.5 from the opening variety of 41, inching in the direction of the lookahead line of 39.5. A few books have taken this to 40.
Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | MIA -3 | MIA -5.5 | MIA -6.5 |
| Complete | 41.5 | 40 | 40 |
Unfold: The market is making its ideas on QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson very clear because the Browns method 7-point underdogs. The Browns managed solely 6 factors in opposition to a Bengals protection ranked twenty fifth in accordance with our energy rankings. It’s 6.5 throughout the board, however some books have examined the waters at 7.
Complete: There may be not a lot motion right here, however a handful of books are reaching 39.5.
Inexperienced Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | GB -2 | MIN -2 | PK |
| Complete | 48.5 | 47.5 | 48 |
Unfold: Recreation of the Week potential. We’ve seen each groups favored sooner or later, however we’re now at a PK with an ever-so-slight lean in the direction of the Packers.
Complete: This acquired previous the lookahead line of 48.5 to 49 earlier than dropping again to just about the opening quantity. Loads of 48.5s nonetheless on the board.
Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Commanders
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | WAS -5 | WAS -5 | WAS -4 |
| Complete | 47 | 47.5 | 47.5 |
Unfold: A battle of the rookie QBs right here, and assist for the Michael Penix Jr.-led Falcons has pushed this unfold right down to as little as 3.5. That quantity has since come again as much as 4 throughout the board.
Complete: The primary transfer on this complete was truly a dip right down to 46.5 earlier than momentum on the over caught on. The market is presently break up between 47.5 and 48.
Purchase/Promote: I’ll promote the Falcons assist and purchase the Commanders at -4. The Falcons protection has dominated their final two video games, with a number of defensive touchdowns. These outlier outcomes suppress this unfold, particularly while you consider a matchup in opposition to Jayden Daniels, whose 1.76% turnover-worthy play determine is nice for second-lowest on the season.
Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers
| Lookahead | Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | DET -3 | DET -3 | DET -3.5 |
| Complete | 51.5 | 50.5 | 50.5 |
Unfold: This unfold has bounced backwards and forwards between 3 and three.5 all week.
Complete: Related story on the whole; it has bounced between 50.5 and 51 all week. We’re at 50.5 throughout the board now.
Purchase/Promote: The Lions don’t totally management their very own future in wrapping up the No. 1 seed this week, however I totally anticipate them to play as in the event that they do. With the 49ers out of competition, I’m taking the Lions at -3.5 +100 at Caesars.
