NFL Week 17 Betting Pocket book: Saturday

I’ve been placing collectively notes for each recreation that Judah Fortgang and I contact on through the betting episode of the PFF NFL Present every week, and I’ve since prolonged that to game-by-game betting notes for the total slate of Sunday video games.  

The concept is to place my analysis and ideas onto paper in a quick-hitting, bulleted format to assist myself work by what bets I need to place every week. Hopefully, you’re in a position to get related worth from this text as you’re employed by your decision-making course of. 

Every recreation will embody data-driven and contextual notes for either side of the ball with an “Angles I Like” abstract on the finish, which shortly summarizes how I’m most definitely to guess the sport from a spreads, totals and participant props perspective.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (CHARGERS -4.5, 43.5 TOTAL)

• The Patriots have blitzed on 37% of their pass-defense snaps this season (sixth-highest charge in NFL), however they’re nonetheless a bottom-five protection in strain charge.
  • A group that blitzes usually with out producing strain tends to be an excellent matchup for many quarterbacks, however that’s significantly true for Justin Herbert, who has excelled each in opposition to the blitz and from a clear pocket.
    • Justin Herbert PFF passing grades | 2024 season
      • Vs. Blitz: 83.1 (2nd)
      • From Clear Pocket: 92.0 (third)
  • The Chargers have continued to be a pass-heavy group since their early-season bye. Assuming the sport stays aggressive, this can be a great place to assault Herbert’s passing overs/alts.
• As I’ve mentioned a number of occasions in these notebooks, Ladd McConkey is by far the Chargers’ most efficient receiver in opposition to man protection. And New England performs Cowl 1 at a top-five charge.
  • Receiving yards per route run versus man protection amongst Chargers’ prime WRs
  • McConkey runs greater than 70% of his routes from the slot.
    • The Patriots’ prime cornerback, Christian Gonzalez, has lined up within the slot on solely 19% of his protection snaps this season. He may kick in to face McConkey on key downs however is unlikely to be a mainstay there.
    • The Patriots’ beginning slot cornerback, Marcus Jones, missed final week’s recreation and hasn’t practiced by Wednesday. New England moved Jonathan Jones to the slot, which weakened the opposite exterior spot reverse Gonzalez.
  • Any Herbert alts I guess will probably be tied to McConkey receiving overs/alts (line set at 70.5).
• There’s an opportunity that the Chargers get working again J.Okay. Dobbins again for the primary time since Week 12 (restricted practices on Tuesday and Wednesday).
  • The Patriots have been extra susceptible to the run recreation than is typical from a New England protection (twenty fourth in EPA allowed per run play), and we’ve seen working backs like James Prepare dinner, Joe Mixon, James Conner and Kyren Williams all have environment friendly days (greater than 5.5 yards per carry) on low quantity.
  • It is price ready to see what the speeding traces are for Dobbins, however I’ll probably keep away from overs, on condition that Los Angeles may ease him again in after his day without work resulting from damage.
• The Chargers’ run protection has appeared susceptible in latest weeks, together with in opposition to groups that haven’t had a lot success working the ball.
  • The Chargers rank twenty sixth in EPA allowed per run play over their previous 5 video games.
  • The Patriots are a giant gap-scheme speeding offense, and Los Angeles has allowed 4.6 yards per stick with it gap-scheme runs this yr (twenty first in NFL).
  • The Patriots need to defend Drake Maye behind a nasty offensive line and run the ball once they’re in a position to. This can be a spot the place I’ve some curiosity in Rhamondre Stevenson working into mild bins, together with his line set at solely 42.5 yards. He’s averaging 5.2 yards per carry over his previous three video games.
• The Patriots’ passing offense has additionally been rather more environment friendly in opposition to two-high protection shells than single-high protection shells since Maye took over in Week 6.
  • Patriots’ EPA per move play rank by protection shell
    • Single-high: twenty sixth
    • Two-high: seventh
  • The Chargers play two-high on the third-highest charge within the NFL (54%).
• Since Maye took over at quarterback in Week 6, the Patriots are a top-10 group in red-zone move charge. If we’re bought on New England having the ability to transfer the ball and get into the purple zone, Maye going over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+188) turns into fascinating.
• I believe this recreation has sneaky back-and-forth potential, contemplating the latest type of the Chargers’ protection. That provides me extra conviction in my favourite angle within the recreation (Herbert/McConkey overs).

Angles I like: Over 43.5, Justin Herbert-to-Ladd McConkey SGPs, Rhamondre Stevenson speeding yards overs, Drake Maye over 1.5 passing touchdowns

DENVER BRONCOS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS (BENGALS -3, 49.5 TOTAL)

• This is without doubt one of the video games of the week when it comes to playoff implications. Cincinnati must win out (with assist) to have an opportunity at clinching the No. 7 seed, and Denver can clinch a playoff berth with a victory on Saturday.
• The explanation {that a} group just like the Payments, who look more likely to get the No. 2 seed, shall be rooting for a Bengals loss, is that Cincinnati can sustain with any opponent with the best way their offense is transferring the ball.
  • Most common yards per play | 2024 season
    • Bengals with Tee Higgins on the sphere: 6.5
    • Ravens: 6.4
    • Lions: 6.0
    • Packers: 6.0
• It appears just like the Broncos ought to get Riley Moss again at cornerback for this recreation, which is noteworthy as a result of they’ve shifted stylistically with him out of the lineup.
  • Broncos’ man protection charge
    • Weeks 1-11: 36% (fifth highest)
    • Weeks 12-16: 24% (twenty first)
      • Denver has turned to extra two-high over this stretch (twenty seventh in two-high charge in Weeks 1-11, ninth since Week 12)
  • It’s not essentially proper to imagine that the Broncos will return to their base man protection and single-high charges with Moss returning.
    • The Bengals have seen two-high on 53% of their offensive snaps (second highest). Denver may keep it up on this matchup in opposition to Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
• The fashion of protection doesn’t do a lot to alter my curiosity in Burrow. The Bengals have handed the ball on the highest charge within the NFL in impartial conditions, and Burrow has the second-highest PFF passing grade within the NFL in opposition to two-high shells.
  • Chase and Higgins would get extra vertical one-on-one photographs exterior in opposition to single-high, however they will produce in any matchup.
• The important thing matchup shall be Ja’Marr Chase versus Patrick Surtain.
  • Chase is able to beating any matchup, however I am going to keep away from his duel in opposition to Surtain, who hasn’t given up greater than 39 receiving yards in a recreation this season and enters this week at No. 1 in PFF’s superior protection grading amongst cornerbacks.
    • Chase has 285 snaps within the slot this season, and I think about Cincinnati will transfer him there to get him away from Surtain. But it surely’s a nasty sufficient matchup that I’ll look elsewhere, on condition that Burrow is comfy spreading the wealth.
      • Higgins has a barely increased goal charge than Chase when on the sphere.
• If the Broncos do attempt to remove Chase with Surtain, I’ve an curiosity in receiving overs for the opposite core items of the Bengals’ passing offense (Higgins and Gesicki).
  • The Broncos have allowed 595 receiving yards to working backs this yr (sixth most in NFL).
• There’s an excellent probability the Bengals will get Orlando Brown Jr. (out since Week 14) and Amarius Mims (left Week 16 recreation) again from damage this week, which is essential in opposition to a Broncos protection ranked second in quick-pressure charge in 2024.
• On the opposite facet of the ball, the Bengals’ protection has been the explanation they’re beneath .500 on the season. The unit has been barely higher because the bye week, however that has been in opposition to an underwhelming slate of opposing offenses (Steelers, Cowboys, Titans and Dorian Thompson-Robinson-led Browns).
• Regardless of that enchancment in latest weeks, the Bengals have nonetheless allowed probably the most yards after the catch per reception of any protection within the NFL since their Week 12 bye.
  • Most YAC/REC allowed since Week 13
    • Bengals: 6.9
    • Bears: 6.8
    • Jaguars: 6.7
  • The Broncos are one of many largest display groups within the NFL (prime 5 in display charge) and rank third in yards after the catch per reception (6.7) over the previous 5 weeks.
    • Denver has made a concerted effort to get the ball in Marvin Mims’ palms on offense, sending him 18 targets over the previous 5 video games. He’s averaging 19.3 yards after the catch per reception on these targets because of a number of lengthy catches on swing passes out of the backfield and his 90-plus-yard landing on a seam in opposition to Cleveland in Week 13.
      • With Mims’ receiving yardage line set at 24.5, I’ll be taking an opportunity on one other lengthy run-after-the-catch play after he performed a season-high 30 snaps final week.
• Denver’s backfield will get murkier with Jaleel McLaughlin probably coming back from damage and it turning into a three-headed unit once more (Javonte Williams and Audric Estime).
  • The traces will probably be low sufficient in a tender speeding matchup in opposition to Cincinnati that in the event you can guess who will get the new hand, there shall be worth on the over. However I’ll most definitely be staying away as a result of I don’t have an awesome learn on the state of affairs.

Angles I like: Bengals -3, Chase Brown receiving overs, Ja’Marr Chase receiving unders, Joe Burrow-to-non-Chase SGPs (Higgins, Gesicki, Brown), Marvin Mims receiving overs

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS (RAMS -6.5, 47.5 TOTAL)

• The primary assembly between these two groups was in Week 2 — a recreation the Cardinals dominated, 41-10, but it surely was in opposition to a depleted Rams offense.
• If the Rams can have success on the bottom, they’re going to run the ball usually as one of many prime groups in run charge over anticipated prior to now 5 weeks.
  • We noticed this final week in opposition to the Jets, as Kyren Williams ran for 122 yards on 23 carries. Williams has 112 carries over the previous 5 weeks, rating behind solely Saquon Barkley.
    • He has one of many safer speeding quantity roles within the NFL, and the Cardinals have allowed 4.5 yards per stick with it designed runs this season (sixth highest in NFL).
    • There’s not a lot worth on alts, with Williams’ speeding yardage line set at 92.5, however this can be a spot the place I lean towards his over. The Rams are available in as 6.5-point favorites in a tender speeding matchup.
• Stafford has a few of the larger clean-versus-pressured splits within the NFL, and the Cardinals have struggled to generate constant strain all season.
  • Stafford PFF passing grade ranks | 2024 season
    • Clear pocket: fifth
    • Pressured: thirty second
  • The Cardinals rank simply twenty fifth in strain charge on the season — although they place fifteenth over the previous 5 weeks at fifteenth, however that’s largely due to how usually they’re blitzing (46% blitz charge since Week 12 is third highest in NFL).
    • Stafford has been one of many higher quarterbacks within the NFL at beating the blitz this yr. The Rams rank sixth in EPA per move play versus the blitz.
  • This matchup units up properly for Stafford on paper, however I’m anxious sufficient in regards to the quantity that I lean towards the below on his passing yardage line within the mid-to-high 230s.
    • Stafford has averaged simply 25 makes an attempt per recreation throughout the previous 4 weeks, which suggests he would want to common greater than 9 yards per try to clear his yardage whole if he’s sitting round 25 makes an attempt once more.
    • I’ll have some curiosity in below 30.5 makes an attempt at +100 on DraftKings.
• One other part to the Stafford quantity dialog is that the Rams’ protection has been permitting lengthy, sustained drives all season, and that’s been much more true the previous 5 weeks.
  • Most performs allowed per drive since Week 12
    • Jets: 7.3
    • Rams: 7.2
    • Saints: 7.2
    • Chargers: 7.2
• The Rams have allowed 4.6 yards per run play over the previous 5 weeks (third most), and the Cardinals have been one of many league’s extra environment friendly speeding offenses (sixth in EPA per run play).
  • James Conner damage his knee in Week 16 however has been in a position to get in restricted practices this week and could possibly be good to go for Saturday. Even with that knee damage, Conner has rushed 15-plus occasions for not less than 5.0 yards per carry in every of the previous three weeks.
  • My preliminary really feel for this recreation is that each groups will lean on the run recreation and string collectively some longer drives that chew clock, which ought to play to below 47.5.
• Murray had his finest video games of the season in opposition to this Rams protection in Week 2 (17-of-21 passing, 266 yards, three touchdowns, zero interceptions, 5 carries for 59 yards), and I do have extra curiosity in him at his traces than Stafford.
  • The Cardinals are the NFL’s finest group with a sizeable lead, rating first in EPA per play when main by seven-plus factors, so I like pairing participant prop overs for the Cardinals with their moneyline or alt spreads as favorites.
• It’s been a disappointing rookie season for Marvin Harrison Jr., however opposing offenses have had success all season focusing on exterior receivers in opposition to the Rams.
  • Highest passer score allowed on exterior WR targets
    • Falcons: 115.8
    • Rams: 113.6
    • Giants: 109.1
  • Harrison caught 4 passes within the first assembly for 130 yards and two touchdowns. He’s been inherently excessive variance together with his position on this offense (with extra lows than highs), however this seems like an excellent week to take a shot on him connecting on one or two of his downfield targets with a receiving line set proper round 50 yards.

Angles I like: Underneath 47.5, Matthew Stafford passing unders, Kyren Williams speeding overs, SGPs across the Cardinals profitable (Kyler Murray, James Conner and Marvin Harrison Jr. overs)