Welcome to PFF’s weekly midweek market replace.
This text will clarify the components that drive line actions in betting markets, serving to you assess whether or not a change is an overreaction or underreaction to those market influences.
Damage, climate situations and public decide releases can all have an effect on line motion. Click on right here for a deeper rationalization of what we intention to attain with this text. Lookahead traces weren’t obtainable forward of this week, given the uncertainty in motivation groups would have of their season finales after Week 17’s outcomes.
Click on right here to leap to a recreation:
CLE@BAL | CIN@PIT | BUF@NE | NYG@PHI | CAR@ATL | NO@TB | CHI@GB JAX@IND | HOU@TEN | WAS@DAL |SF@ARI | SEA@LAR | MIA@NYJ LAC@LV | KC@DEN | MIN@DET
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | BAL -17.5 | BAL -17.5 |
| Whole | 41.5 | 42 |
Unfold: The Ravens opened as 17.5-point favorites, nonetheless motivated to safe the division with a win. A couple of books have moved this to 18, reflecting the Browns’ ongoing struggles to generate offense since turning to Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback. With restricted manufacturing from Cleveland, this quantity might climb greater.
Whole: The entire has remained comparatively regular, with the market break up between 41.5 and 42.
Purchase/Promote: I’ll purchase the Ravens at -17.5. Baltimore’s offensive firepower ought to show an excessive amount of for this model of the Browns’ offense to maintain tempo.
Situational Components: The Ravens maintain a relaxation benefit, having performed on Christmas Day.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | CIN -2.5 | CIN -2 |
| Whole | 47.5 | 48.5 |
Unfold: The Bengals should win to maintain their playoff hopes alive. Whereas the Steelers won’t be eligible for the division title by kickoff, they nonetheless have seeding to combat for, doubtlessly impacting whether or not they journey to Houston or Baltimore. This unfold briefly touched 3 earlier than dropping to 2 after Mike Tomlin confirmed he gained’t relaxation his starters. If the Ravens safe the division and the road strikes again to three, I’d lean towards taking Pittsburgh at dwelling with the factors.
Whole: The entire has risen by a degree to 48.5, with some books nonetheless holding at 48. The upward adjustment displays the high-scoring nature of their Week 13 matchup, the place the groups mixed for 82 factors.
Situational Components: The Steelers take pleasure in a relaxation benefit, having final performed on Christmas Day.
Buffalo Payments @ New England Patriots
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | BUF -2 | BUF -2.5 |
| Whole | 40 | 38 |
Unfold: With the Payments locked into the No. 2 seed, we’re more likely to see starters relaxation, together with quarterback Josh Allen, who may solely take a snap to protect his games-started streak. Equally, the Patriots, who maintain the No. 1 general decide within the draft, could restrict their very own key gamers, with rumors suggesting Joe Milton might see motion at quarterback. Neither staff has a lot incentive to win, however New England has a transparent incentive to lose. The market is break up between 2.5 and three factors, however laying the two.5 with the Payments appears extra favorable than taking factors with the Patriots.
Whole: A decide launch on the underneath has moved the whole from 40 to 38, with no extra motion since.
Purchase/Promote: Locking in a parlay of the Payments moneyline and the underneath 38.5 at +195 on FanDuel. If “first recreation to complete” in the course of the 1:00 p.m. slate have been an choice, it could be tempting. Anticipate each groups to lean on the run recreation, with the Payments getting a win in a fast, low-scoring matchup.
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | PHI -3 | PHI -3 |
| Whole | 38 | 38 |
Unfold: The Eagles opened as 3-point favorites and have remained at that quantity throughout the board. With Philadelphia locked into the No. 2 seed whatever the consequence, the extent to which their starters will play is unsure.
Whole: The entire has seen minimal motion, holding regular at 38.5 at a number of books.
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | ATL -7.5 | ATL -8 |
| Whole | 47.5 | 48 |
Unfold: Atlanta’s odds have ticked up barely from the opening line of -7.5, with some books now itemizing the Falcons at -8.5 and even -9. The rise displays their still-slim likelihood of capturing the NFC South.
Whole: The entire has remained regular, with most books break up between 47.5 and 48 after opening at 47.5. There hasn’t been vital motion right here.
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | TB -14 | TB -13 |
| Whole | 43.5 | 43.5 |
Unfold: The Buccaneers opened as two-touchdown favorites with the division inside attain, however the line dropped to 13 on Monday afternoon. Some books nonetheless record 13.5 for the Saints. Whereas there’s an outdoor likelihood Derek Carr might play, the market’s present line suggests skepticism about his availability.
Whole: The entire has stayed near the opening 43.5, with just a few books providing 44.
Chicago Bears @ Inexperienced Bay Packers
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | GB -7.5 | GB -9 |
| Whole | 40 | 40 |
Unfold: Inexperienced Bay has shifted to a 9-point favourite after opening barely above a landing. Some books provide 9.5, however the line has but to settle at 10. It’s more likely to shut slightly below that key quantity.
Whole: The entire has fluctuated between 39.5 and 40, with just a few books now transferring to 40.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | IND -5 | IND -5 |
| Whole | 44 | 46 |
Unfold: The market consensus is holding at 5, with solely minor deviations of half a degree in both route. Neither staff has postseason hopes remaining.
Whole: The entire has risen by two factors from its opening at 46. The Colts have been concerned in high-scoring affairs lately, hitting the over of their final 4 video games and 6 of their previous seven. Some books nonetheless have 45.5 obtainable.
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | TEN -3.5 | PK |
| Whole | 36.5 | 39 |
Unfold: The Texans, locked into the No. 4 seed, opened as 3.5-point underdogs to the Titans. Whereas head coach DeMeco Ryans advised starters would play, he left room for them to be pulled in the course of the recreation. This uncertainty has moved the road to a decide’em, although some books nonetheless have Tennessee as a slight favourite. This dynamic creates intriguing betting angles, reminiscent of Texans 1H and Titans full recreation, assuming Houston’s starters gained’t play the whole contest.
Whole: A notable enhance within the complete aligns with the expectation that Texans starters will see the sphere for a part of the sport. Nevertheless, some 38.5s stay obtainable.
Situational Components: The Texans have a relaxation benefit, having performed on Christmas Day.
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | WAS -1.5 | WAS -4.5 |
| Whole | 43 | 44 |
Unfold: Hypothesis about how Dallas will divide taking part in time, together with potential snaps for Trey Lance at quarterback, has influenced this line. With Washington needing a win to safe the No. 6 seed, the Commanders have moved to 4.5-point favorites throughout all books.
Whole: A slight uptick within the complete has taken it from 43 to 44, with resistance displaying at 44.5.
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | PK | AZ 4 |
| Whole | 46 | 42.5 |
Unfold: The Cardinals have seen vital motion of their favor after the 49ers introduced Brock Purdy can be shut down for the season. Josh Dobbs is ready to start out in his place. The market is break up, with some books at 4.5 whereas others lag at 3.5.
Whole: The entire has dropped in response to the Purdy information, now sitting at 42.5 throughout all books.
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | SEA -2.5 | SEA -5.5 |
| Whole | 39.5 | 38.5 |
Unfold: Following Sean McVay’s announcement that he plans to relaxation starters, the Seahawks have moved to a 5-point favourite as of Tuesday afternoon. Regardless of this, the Rams nonetheless have one thing to play for, as a win would safe the NFC’s three-seed.
Whole: The entire has dropped a degree from its opening at 39.5, although no guide has but moved it all the way down to 38.
Purchase/Promote: I’ll purchase the Rams at +5.5, given their remaining incentive to compete and Jimmy Garoppolo underneath heart.
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | MIA -2.5 | MIA -1 |
| Whole | 41.5 | 39 |
Unfold: Issues round Tua Tagovailoa’s hip persist after he missed Week 17, resulting in skepticism about his availability for Sunday. Because of this, the Dolphins have slid to a 1-point favourite. In the meantime, Aaron Rodgers stays on monitor to start out for the Jets. Miami should win and obtain exterior assist to make the playoffs, with their possibilities at the moment sitting at round 10%.
Whole: The entire has dropped 2.5 factors, reflecting uncertainty over Tua’s standing. A couple of books nonetheless have this at 39.5.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | LAC -3.5 | LAC -6 |
| Whole | 39 | 41 |
Unfold: The Chargers nonetheless have some seeding to play for, and we’ve seen them develop to a 6-point favourite. There are nonetheless 5.5s on the market.
Whole: One-way motion on the over has pushed this complete up from 39 to 41. Some 41.5s are showing, and we haven’t but seen a lot resistance to knock this quantity down.
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | DEN -8.5 | DEN -10 |
| Whole | 38 | 39 |
Unfold: Win, and also you’re in for the Broncos this week. A majority of these must-win situations can result in artificially inflated traces. At first look, this appears to be a kind of alternatives, nevertheless it’s largely in response to the Chiefs’ starters resting. A loss right here would additionally forestall one other “Burrowhead” scenario from returning, icing the Bengals out of the playoffs. We’ve seen this unfold attain 10.5, however at that time, we noticed some help for the Chiefs.
Whole: One level adjustment up on the whole has the market at the moment break up between 38.5 and 39.
Situational Components: The Chiefs have a relaxation benefit, having performed on Christmas Day.
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
| Opener | Present Line | |
| Unfold | DET -3 | DET -3 |
| Whole | 51 | 56 |
Unfold: This one’s for all of the marbles within the NFC North. The winner takes the division and secures home-field benefit all through the playoffs. We’ve seen some motion backwards and forwards between 2.5 and three on this matchup. That ought to be precisely the place it closes.
Whole: The preliminary opener right here was 51 and was guess as much as 53 on Sunday evening. After the Lions’ explosion for 40 factors on MNF, this re-opened at 55.5. From there, it obtained guess as much as 57 however has since dropped again to 56. There are nonetheless some 57s on the market.
