• Tremendous Bowl or bust in Buffalo: With the Payments showing to be the AFC’s most full workforce, it’s time for them to lastly go all the way in which.
• Who would be the Titans’ beginning quarterback in 2025? Since coming back from harm in Week 10, Will Levis has made some strides, rating 16th in PFF passing grade with a league-leading 8.9% big-time throw fee. However turnover-worthy performs and pocket presence stay overarching points.
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Estimated Studying Time: 17 minutes
Within the blink of a watch, solely 5 weeks stay within the 2024 NFL common season. Groups on the playoff bubble are staring down their fates, whereas different squads try to fine-tune because the postseason nears.
Positive, each NFL squad would like to win out to shut the yr, however not all expectations are created equally. Under is one factor every franchise ought to look to realize because the calendar turns to 2025 — and the lights dim on this season.
JUMP TO A TEAM:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN | CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC | LV | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WAS
Arizona Cardinals: Keep offensive manufacturing to remain aggressive
The Cardinals sit at 6-6 after dropping their previous two video games, and offensive output is the large motive why. After tearing up opposing defenses by way of the air and on the bottom for many of 2024, Arizona’s offense hasn’t been nearly as good prior to now two weeks, rating 24th in EPA per play and 21st in profitable play fee whereas compiling solely 28 whole factors. If the Cardinals wish to stay aggressive for the NFC West title, offensive coordinator Drew Petzing must treatment this dry spell in opposition to two strong defenses.
Atlanta Falcons: Win the NFC South
The Falcons gave the impression to be in cruise management, possessing an 84.4% probability to win the NFC South forward of Week 10. However fast-forward 4 weeks, and Atlanta has in some way dropped three straight, preserving the division race very a lot alive. Contemplating that each the Falcons and Buccaneers rank within the prime 5 in best schedules remaining — and that Atlanta holds the head-to-head tiebreaker — there’s little or no excuse for Raheem Morris to not come away with the division title.
Baltimore Ravens: Repair offensive manufacturing in opposition to elite defenses
At 8-5, the Ravens are nonetheless a secure playoff wager, holding a 96% probability to complete among the many AFC’s prime seven seeds. However what’s troublesome for Baltimore is that its offense hasn’t flourished as a lot prior to now three weeks, rating 23rd in success fee and 14th in EPA per play. Whereas Lamar Jackson secured a 74.8 PFF total grade in opposition to the Chargers in Week 12, he posted grades beneath 71.0 in opposition to the Steelers and Eagles — two losses. Contemplating Baltimore will doubtless face a terrific protection as early because the wild-card spherical, offensive coordinator Todd Monken should seek for fixes, particularly in Weeks 16 and 17 in opposition to the Steelers and Texans.
Buffalo Payments: Win the AFC
The Payments rank within the prime eight in each offensive and defensive EPA per play and have already secured the AFC East title. They’re just one sport behind the Chiefs for the AFC’s prime seed. Buffalo finds itself in acquainted territory by flourishing within the common season, however can it lastly materialize within the postseason?
Sean McDermott’s bunch has now reached the playoffs for six straight years, however none of these have culminated in a Tremendous Bowl berth. With the Payments showing to be the AFC’s most full workforce, it’s time for Buffalo to lastly accomplish what’s dodged the franchise for thus lengthy.
Carolina Panthers: Proceed displaying struggle
The Panthers are all however eradicated, however that hasn’t deterred Dave Canales’ group from wanting rather more poised down the stretch. Carolina went toe-to-toe with each the Chiefs and Buccaneers prior to now two weeks, and Bryce Younger (84.9 PFF total grade since Week 10) has performed just like the game-changing quarterback we anticipated. If the Panthers could make life tough on the Eagles, Cardinals, Buccaneers and Falcons to shut out the yr — and doubtlessly attain 5 wins — then that’s a profitable season.
Chicago Bears: Enhance late-game execution
Sitting at 4-8, the Bears’ playoff hopes are all however naught. However the silver lining for Chicago is that its document doesn’t replicate the workforce’s broader play, even throughout its six-game dropping streak. The Bears have had probabilities to win 4 of their previous six defeats, however late-game blunders — from Hail Mary woes to blocked area objectives — have deterred that. If Thomas Brown can proceed to enhance the Bears’ offensive output — with Chicago rating 12th in EPA per play since he took over in Week 11 — then it ought to inevitably translate to raised, extra tangible outcomes.
Cincinnati Bengals: Get off the sector defensively
Very similar to the Bears, the Bengals seem to face too steep of a hill to climb to achieve the playoffs, holding only a 2% probability of enjoying into mid-January. Even nonetheless, acquiring extra stability between the workforce’s prolific offense and unraveling protection would go a good distance. The Bengals rank 28th in first downs allowed and 30th in conversion proportion given up, which has translated to its offense not getting on the sector as a lot because it must. If Cincinnati’s protection can play higher on late downs — and sort out higher — then the needle may development up heading into 2025.
Cleveland Browns: Block higher
The Browns will doubtless overhaul their quarterback room coming into the 2025 season, particularly in the event that they end with a top-five choose. Assuming Cleveland has a brand new starter and even a brand new operating again, its offensive line will merely have to play at a better stage, because it will not be doable to revamp all 5 positions. The Browns fared considerably higher than anticipated in opposition to a ferocious Steelers entrance in Week 12, allowing solely 9 pressures and one sack, however Joel Bitonio (career-low 62.5 PFF total grade) stays a query mark.
Dallas Cowboys: Maintain run-blocking effectiveness
The Cowboys compiled 122 speeding yards in opposition to the Giants en path to a Thanksgiving Day victory, however the workforce nonetheless completed with a subpar 60.8 PFF run-blocking grade. Nonetheless, it was a optimistic improvement to have 4 of 5 beginning offensive linemen submit a PFF run-blocking grade of not less than 67.7. Assuming that Dallas upgrades in a serious approach at operating again, it ought to attempt to string collectively higher run-blocking video games, contemplating its 2025 offensive line could also be much like the one we noticed in Week 13.
Denver Broncos: Attain the postseason
It typically flies beneath the radar, however the Broncos haven’t made the playoffs since 2015, the yr they gained Tremendous Bowl 50. The workforce hasn’t completed above .500 since 2016, however this yr seems prime territory to vary that. Powered by Bo Nix (84.4 PFF total grade since Week 8) and a protection that ranks second in EPA per play, the Broncos are 8-5 and have a 71% probability to finish the streak. What occurs as soon as within the postseason — assuming a street sport at Buffalo or Pittsburgh — could be extra treacherous, however even getting there’s large progress.
Detroit Lions: Win the Tremendous Bowl
The Lions rank first in total workforce grade and haven’t misplaced since Week 2. Detroit is the favourite to not solely win the NFC, however the Lombardi Trophy, sitting with a 20% probability — narrowly higher than the Chiefs at 18%. Dan Campbell introduced the Lions to the NFC Championship final yr, however it feels as if there’s virtually nothing stopping Detroit from reaching Tremendous Bowl 59, if not successful it, particularly contemplating its defensive front-seven ought to return a number of starters from harm.
Inexperienced Bay Packers: Get higher pass-rushing manufacturing
Making the playoffs isn’t actually a query for the 9-3 Packers. But when Inexperienced Bay desires to go on a authentic run as a probable wild-card workforce, it is going to want its pass-rushing unit to be higher. The Packers rank solely 23rd in workforce pass-rushing grade, to not point out 19th in strain fee. No Packer with 100-plus pass-rushing snaps has recorded a better pass-rush win fee than Rashan Gary at 11.1%, which implies all the unit must elevate its play and make life extra harrowing for quarterbacks like Jared Goff and Jalen Hurts.
Houston Texans: Enhance offensive rhythm
There’s no sugar-coating it: The Texans have a slew of offensive issues, which explains the workforce slotting 18th in offensive EPA per play. From a run sport that ranks 23rd in EPA per play, to an inside offensive line nonetheless not efficient in both aspect, to barely declining play from C.J. Stroud (passing grade down 5 factors), to little second-half manufacturing, Houston isn’t enjoying near its capability on that aspect of the ball.
Even a sport in opposition to the Jaguars, with one of many worst defenses within the NFL, didn’t function a get-right alternative. The Texans produced solely a 69.6 total offensive grade in that contest. The clock is ticking for Houston to seek out cohesion on offense, or the workforce dangers dropping a house playoff sport.
Indianapolis Colts: Make life simpler for Anthony Richardson
Since his promotion again to being the Colts’ beginning quarterback in Week 11, Anthony Richardson has performed at a better stage, amassing an 84.8 PFF total grade that ranks sixth amongst qualifiers in that span. The issue, although, is that Indianapolis pass-catchers proceed to undergo from drops. The Colts are tied for 20th with 19 drops this yr, together with posting seven prior to now three video games.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Play higher within the secondary
Trevor Lawrence‘s well being is clearly on the forefront after a scary collision in Week 13. However the Jaguars additionally want to focus on enhancing their protection of their remaining 5 video games, particularly contemplating the workforce will doubtless retain many present starters on the backend. The Jaguars slot solely 28th in workforce protection grade this yr, with marquee free agent signing Darnell Savage underperforming (52.7 PFF protection grade). Rookie Jarrian Jones hasn’t been spectacular, permitting catches on 73.7% of targets and 11.3 yards per reception. Jacksonville will seemingly make use of a brand new teaching workers subsequent yr, however higher protection would bode properly for the workforce heading into 2025.
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs: Enhance red-zone execution
The Chiefs are 11-1 and within the driver’s seat to win the AFC for the second time in three years, however the workforce has a boatload of areas to enhance in if it hopes to realize a three-peat. The foremost seems to be red-zone play, the place Kansas Metropolis has scored a landing on solely 52.1% of drives (20th) and ranks 19th in profitable play proportion. The Chiefs have been virtually upset by the Raiders on Black Friday after scoring touchdowns on solely one in all their 5 possessions. Patrick Mahomes and the offense presumably gained’t discover as a lot success in close-margin video games if they’ll’t convert journeys contained in the 20 into six factors.
Las Vegas Raiders: Set up extra of a run sport
The Raiders don’t have any scarcity of positions to handle this offseason, which may depart them skinny at operating again. Las Vegas has struggled mightily on the bottom all season, rating 31st in workforce speeding grade; the duo of Alexander Mattison and Zamir White has failed to supply a PFF speeding grade over 67.0. Third-year again Honest McCormick (64 yards, 73.1 PFF speeding grade) supplied some burst in Week 13, however both approach, it might be a giant enhance for the Raiders to point out some progress when operating over their remaining 5 video games.
Los Angeles Chargers: Win a playoff sport
Powered by a protection that ranks sixth in EPA per play and fourth in workforce grade, the Chargers are 8-4 and have a 93% probability to achieve the playoffs — all of which appears like a serious overachievement in Jim Harbaugh’s first yr. Justin Herbert is poised to play his second profession playoff sport, however Los Angeles hasn’t gained a playoff contest because the 2018 season. With Herbert beneath middle and a protection that strikes worry into virtually any offensive coordinator, it feels just like the Chargers may snap that streak — particularly if their run sport and receivers might be simpler down the stretch.
Los Angeles Rams: Play higher protection
The Rams are solely a sport again of the Seahawks for first place within the NFC West, largely fueled by an offense that sits 13th in EPA per play and fourth in success fee. The contributions of Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams are all however assured, however what’s lingered as a weak spot is the workforce’s protection: Los Angeles ranks 24th in passing EPA per play and 23rd in workforce protection grade. Provided that no Ram to play 100 or extra protection snaps has eclipsed even a 66.0 PFF protection grade, it may be unrealistic to count on tighter protection this late, though it seems to be Los Angeles’ solely shot at reaching the playoffs.
Miami Dolphins: Enhance play in cold-weather environments
The 5-7 Dolphins have nearly zero room for error in the event that they wish to embark on a late-season postseason surge. Sadly for Mike McDaniel’s bunch, that features closing the season with two street video games at Cleveland and New York, every of which figures to be chilly. Miami turned in one other dud in frigid circumstances on Thanksgiving evening, and the Dolphins at the moment are 0-4 in matchups at 40 levels or decrease beneath McDaniel. The chances of Miami enjoying in a climate-controlled playoff sport sooner or later are low, which makes this remaining stretch of 2024 a first-rate alternative to type out offensive and defensive execution.
Minnesota Vikings: Attain the Divisional Spherical
Skepticism abounded early in regards to the Vikings, however they’ve confirmed authentic. Sam Darnold ranks seventh amongst qualifiers in PFF passing grade, and Minnesota’s protection continues to be first in EPA per play. That mixture of offensive and defensive prowess with distinctive play-calling on either side ought to translate, and meaning a chance to exorcise the workforce’s wild-card demons from two years in the past. If Minnesota nonetheless can’t win a playoff sport in Kevin O’Connell’s third season — and with a workforce this well-rounded — then deeper questions will crop up.
New England Patriots: Shield Drake Maye
Maye has been strong since taking on for Jacoby Brissett, posting a 73.7 PFF total grade whereas securing PFF passing grades above 73.0 in two of his previous three outings. The issue all yr has been New England’s offensive line — which sits 32nd in PFF total grade. Colossal upgrades are wanted at nearly each place besides proper guard, so the main target for the rest of this yr needs to be to offer Maye as a lot time as doable to refine his craft as a passer.
New Orleans Saints: Higher cease the run
The Saints could lastly succumb to not less than a partial rebuild this offseason, and appreciable work must be finished on the defensive aspect of the ball. Nonetheless, New Orleans will doubtless deliver again a number of starters on a unit that has not been efficient in opposition to the bottom sport: The Saints rank 32nd in workforce run-defense grade and 31st in speeding EPA per play. Extra good work from Jordan Howden and Alontae Taylor, every of whom has posted a PFF run-defense grade of 76.6 or higher, might be a catalyst for gamers like Nathan Shepherd and Bryan Bresee.
New York Giants: Lean on the rookie playmakers
The Giants have been diminished to watching their draft inventory, and season-ending accidents to Dexter Lawrence and Theo Johnson have not helped. New York will virtually assuredly add a high-profile quarterback this offseason, that means its executives and followers ought to focus on spectacular younger items. Andru Phillips (81.9 PFF total grade) and Tyler Nubin (75.9 PFF run-defense grade, 78.0 PFF tackling grade) seem like long-term items within the secondary, whereas Malik Nabers (81.9 PFF receiving grade) has appeared unstoppable regardless of dismal play beneath middle. If the Giants wish to flip issues round subsequent yr, they’ll want their newcomers to play at this excessive of a stage as soon as once more.
Highest-Graded Rookie Defenders (Minimal 100 Snaps)
New York Jets: Type out the defensive qualms
Very similar to their metropolis counterparts, the Jets have a smorgasbord of points to type out, from management to quarterback. However the workforce’s defensive core will doubtless carry over going into 2025. The unit has grossly underperformed, rating 18th in EPA per play and 22nd in PFF total grade. A significant motive has been the declining play of Sauce Gardner (first season beneath an 87.9 PFF total grade), however different questions loom alongside the defensive position and within the secondary. Getting extra constant play from Gardner and the remainder of the unit because the 2024 season mercifully wraps up would imply one fewer factor to fret about.
Philadelphia Eagles: Win the Tremendous Bowl
Very similar to the Lions, it’s arduous to discover a true weak level on the Eagles proper now. In any case, Philadelphia is 10-2 and ranks within the prime six in each offensive and defensive EPA per play. Plus, the Eagles have already attained wins over the Ravens, Commanders and Packers. The workforce holds a 29% probability of successful the NFC, and now the obligation of overcoming final yr’s late-season collapse and playoff catastrophe falls squarely on the shoulders of head coach Nick Sirianni. There seems to be no hindrance to this workforce not less than reaching the NFC Championship, however larger aspirations are definitely on the desk with a squad this good.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Attain the Divisional Spherical
For the primary time in not less than 4 years, the Steelers appear to have an offense competent sufficient to enhance an elite protection. Pittsburgh ranks 15th in offensive EPA per play and fourth in defensive EPA per play, whereas Russell Wilson’s 78.3 PFF passing grade sits ninth amongst qualifiers. The Steelers are in robust place to achieve the playoffs for the second straight season, however the postseason hasn’t been type to Mike Tomlin, who has misplaced 5 straight video games and never gained because the 2017 season. Provided that Pittsburgh may host a playoff sport in opposition to a lower-ranking AFC workforce, 2024 feels just like the yr that the Steelers have to lastly overcome that drought.
San Francisco 49ers: Repair the run protection
The easy reply for the 49ers could be to keep away from extra cataclysmic accidents, however that seems to be out of their management at this level within the yr. As an alternative, Kyle Shanahan ought to focus on maximizing his current expertise, notably on protection to cease the run. The 49ers rank 29th in workforce run-defense grade, with San Francisco tying for twenty-fourth in missed tackles in opposition to the bottom sport. Sure, the 49ers could look barely tweaked on protection subsequent yr, however steady wholesome items like Ji’Ayir Brown, Deommodore Lenoir and rookie Renardo Inexperienced have to play higher in opposition to the run.
Seattle Seahawks: Discover methods to maintain Geno Smith upright
The Seahawks are in pole place to win the NFC West, holding a 43% probability of doing so. But when Seattle additionally desires to make a run in Mike Macdonald’s first yr, its offensive line merely wants to carry up higher. The Seahawks’ unit ranks 28th in PFF total grade and strain proportion. Even in wins — akin to on the Jets in Week 13 — Smith was pressured on 34.3% of dropbacks. Smith (81.6 PFF passing grade) has been elite regardless of his circumstances, however in some unspecified time in the future, the sheer strain will doubtless be too overwhelming if enchancment doesn’t occur.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tighten the protection
The Buccaneers are using a two-game successful streak and instantly discover themselves tied for first place within the NFC South, however their secondary has nonetheless been leaky for nearly all the season. Tampa Bay sits 28th in passing EPA per play and contested goal fee. Even shiny spot Zyon McCollum has been much less efficient over the previous three weeks, compiling only a 63.8 PFF protection grade. The Buccaneers will want McCollum to play like a lockdown cornerback down the stretch, particularly since solely Jamel Dean and Tykee Smith have posted PFF protection grades of 69.0 or greater.
Tennessee Titans: Decide your quarterback path
The Titans’ 2024 season is principally a moot level by way of final result, however there’s nonetheless loads hinging on the quarterback place over the following 5 video games. Since coming back from harm in Week 10, Will Levis has made some strides, rating 16th in PFF passing grade with a league-leading 8.9% big-time throw fee. However turnover-worthy performs and pocket presence stay overarching points. Will Levis show sufficient to discourage Tennessee from drafting a quarterback early, or will Brian Callahan keep on with the early-season plan and transfer on?
Washington Commanders: Enhance defensively
The Commanders secured a much-needed victory over the Titans in Week 13, staving off different playoff hopefuls to achieve 8-5 and transfer to a 78% postseason likelihood. If Washington desires to go deeper than anticipated in Dan Quinn’s first yr as head coach, it is going to want its protection to play at a better stage. The Commanders sit solely 23rd in defensive EPA per play and 24th in yards per play allowed, though these figures have improved since Week 7 — rating 17th and 13th, respectively.
Nonetheless, that’s not dominant sufficient to neutralize NFC powerhouses like Detroit, Philadelphia and even Minnesota. The debut of commerce deadline acquisition Marshon Lattimore may assist, however this unit nonetheless must play higher collectively if doubtless Offensive Rookie of the Yr Jayden Daniels desires to cap off his rookie season in fashion.
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