The Oregon Geese (12-0, 9-0 Massive Ten) and Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1, 8-1) will go to battle with a Massive Ten Championship on the road Saturday evening. Kickoff is about for 8 p.m. ET on CBS.
Oregon has gone unblemished by means of 12 regular-season video games up to now, surviving an intense one with Ohio State, 32-31, whereas additionally escaping Madison with a 16-13 win over Wisconsin simply 3 weeks in the past.
Penn State, in the meantime, snuck into the Massive Ten Championship because of Ohio State’s 13-10 loss to Michigan in “The Sport.” The Nittany Lions have one hiccup on their resume — a 20-13 loss to the Buckeyes at dwelling.
PSU head coach James Franklin has struggled mightily in large video games like this one, so he is seeking to change the narrative Saturday evening in Indianapolis.
Oregon enters as a -3.5 favourite with an over/underneath of 49.5.
Let’s check out our Oregon vs. Penn State picks and faculty soccer predictions for the 2024 Massive Ten Championship on Saturday, Dec. 7.
Oregon vs. Penn State Picks, Predictions
By Mike McNamara
We had been all set for a rematch in Indianapolis for the Massive Ten title between Oregon and Ohio State, however the Michigan Wolverines had different plans.
Michigan’s upset win over its arch-rival opened the door for Penn State to sneak into the Massive Ten Championship recreation, the place the Nittany Lions will vie for its first Massive Ten title since 2016 and a top-two seed within the Faculty Soccer Playoff.
Oregon seems to be to win the league in its inaugural season whereas placing the ending touches on an undefeated common season.
The Geese are a 3.5-point favourite on the unfold with a 49.5-point over/underneath.
We polled our faculty soccer employees on their preferences for the aspect and whole within the Massive Ten Championship recreation.
Unfold
Our Unfold Decide: Oregon -3.5
By Tanner McGrath
Our employees has a slight lean towards laying the factors with Oregon.
And why wouldn’t they? It’s James Franklin in an enormous recreation! He’s 18-24 ATS as an underdog in his teaching profession, together with 1-16 SU and 5-12 ATS in opposition to top-five groups.
He hasn’t crushed a top-five group since October 2016, shedding 11 straight through the stretch.
Nevertheless, the Nittany Lions are stacked.
The Andy Kotelnicki-Drew Allar mixture has been deadly. The Lions rank among the many top-10 passing assaults in EPA per Dropback and Passing Explosiveness.
Tyler Warren is arguably the nation’s finest tight finish, producing a whopping 3.1 yards per route run (third nationally amongst certified TEs).
That could possibly be an issue for Oregon, which struggled to include Michigan’s Colstan Loveland earlier this season.
The Geese’ go rush is ferocious, however Penn State’s offensive line has held up very nicely in go safety. Of better significance, Allar hasn’t dedicated a turnover-worthy play in over 100 pressured dropbacks — interceptions are the simplest option to throw you out of this recreation.
The Lions ought to simply set up the run behind Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Oregon’s rush protection is surprisingly weak, rating eightieth in EPA per Rush and Rush Success Charge allowed.
The Geese have additionally struggled to cease energy rush ideas, which is Penn State’s bread and butter. That’ll preserve Allar out of apparent passing conditions, which can assist neutralize Oregon’s elite go rush.
Oregon’s offense is elite, however Penn State’s entrance seven has fared nicely in opposition to zone-read ideas, which may preserve Jordan James at bay.
Do you belief Dillon Gabriel if pressured into apparent passing conditions? Oregon is just not that explosive within the run or go recreation, and Gabriel struggles in pressured pockets.
However, once more, this looks like the identical previous story. Penn State has all of the expertise on the planet, and the Lions have a number of key benefits on paper.
However soccer isn’t performed on paper, and Massive Sport James continues to fall brief each time he will get these alternatives. I wouldn’t be stunned if that occurred once more.
Over/Underneath
Our Over/Underneath Decide: Underneath 49.5
By Tanner McGrath
Our Motion PRO Mannequin tasks the full nearer to 47 than 50.
As such, our faculty soccer employees closely favors the underneath.
I are inclined to agree.
Penn State ought to plan on utilizing a power-concept, rush-heavy recreation script, creating loads of methodical drives. The Nittany Lions have pivoted towards a extra rush-heavy method because the season has progressed, sneaking as much as twenty ninth nationally in rush charge.
That ought to churn the clock and restrict possessions.
In the meantime, Gabriel ranks first nationally amongst certified quarterbacks in on-target charge, primarily as a result of he lives within the short-to-intermediate a part of the sector — his seven-yard aDOT ranks 148th amongst 154 certified quarterbacks.
Once more, the Geese will in all probability create extra methodical drives than explosive ones. That ought to churn the clock and restrict possessions.
Additionally, I like each of those secondaries. Oregon ranks fourth nationally in PFF’s Protection grades, whereas Penn State ranks twentieth. A.J. Harris is a monster CB1 for the Lions.
I believe these two items can stop any 70-yard touchdowns.
Lastly, these Penn State top-five matchups at all times are typically lower-scoring. The Ohio State recreation earlier this season completed 20-13.
The Lions’ recreation in opposition to No. 3 Ohio State final 12 months completed 20-12, and their one in opposition to No. 2 Michigan completed 24-15.
Oregon vs. Penn State Odds
Saturday, Dec. 7
8 p.m. ET
CBS
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Unfold | Complete | Moneyline |
|
-3.5 -110 |
49.5 -115o / -105u |
-185 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Unfold | Complete | Moneyline |
|
+3.5 -110 |
49.5 -115o / -105u |
+150 |
- Oregon vs. Penn State Unfold: Oregon -3.5 · Penn State +3.5
- Oregon vs. Penn State Over/Underneath: 49.5 Factors
- Oregon vs. Penn State Moneyline: Oregon -185 · Penn State +150
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