I’m hesitant to again James Franklin in one other massive sport.
Franklin-led groups are 1-16 straight up and 5-12 towards the unfold towards top-five groups. Franklin’s Lions haven’t overwhelmed a top-five opponent since October 2016, dropping 11 straight through the stretch.
That stated, how “massive” is the Large Ten championship sport? Each groups are within the Faculty Soccer Playoff no matter consequence, and I’m not sure if Oregon wouldn’t reasonably be the five-seed, enjoying the 12-seed within the first spherical and the ACC or Large 12 Champion within the second.
Regardless, the matchup is favorable.
The Nittany Lions have pivoted to a extra rush-heavy strategy in latest weeks, and they need to don’t have any points operating throughout a surprisingly weak Geese rush protection. Oregon ranks outdoors the highest 70 nationally in EPA per Rush allowed, Rush Success Price allowed, and Defensive Line Yards.
If Penn State can run the ball, it might probably hold Drew Allar out of apparent passing conditions and assist neutralize Oregon’s ferocious move rush.
On the opposite aspect of the ball, Penn State’s protection is elite in any respect three ranges. The one manner you may beat the Lions is excessive, the place they’re weak to deep passing performs.
However Oregon isn’t overly explosive. Dillon Gabriel doesn’t have the strongest arm, and he lives within the short-to-intermediate space — his seven-yard common depth of goal ranks 148th out of 154 certified FBS quarterbacks.
Gabriel additionally struggles mightily below stress, so possibly Penn State’s equally lethal move rush can drive the Heisman Candidate into a couple of key errors.
The decide: Penn State +3.5.
Texas (-3) over Georgia
Sure, Texas obtained bullied by Georgia in Week 8.
Nonetheless, there’s sufficient proof to consider the Longhorns will enhance mightily upon that first head-to-head efficiency.
For starters, there have been 54 situations of two groups that performed within the common season re-meeting within the convention title sport. Among the many losers, 36 improved their scoring margin within the second assembly (67 p.c) by a mean of seven.7 factors.
I additionally suppose the primary head-to-head assembly was nearer than the 30-15 rating signifies. Georgia solely outgained Texas by 24 yards, and Texas generated 5 extra first downs. The time-of-possession battle was lifeless even. Three misplaced fumbles sunk the ‘Horns, and they need to see higher luck within the second battle.
Of larger significance to this handicap is Georgia’s inconsistent play. Effort on a week-to-week foundation is a matter, and the Bulldogs are persistently behind early in video games. They’ve essentially the most huge receiver drops in faculty soccer (36), and their rush protection is surprisingly weak, which doesn’t bode nicely in a matchup with the Longhorns’ enhancing rush protection. As an apart, be careful for Arch Manning packages because the Bulldogs battle to comprise cellular quarterbacks.
Betting on Faculty Soccer?
Well being has one thing to do with the inconsistency. The Bulldogs are banged up, particularly on the offensive line, in order that they’ve struggled to run the ball and shield Carson Beck, and that doesn’t bode nicely in a matchup with the Longhorns’ elite entrance seven.
Final week: 1-2. Texas A&M (L), Vanderbilt (L), Air Drive (W)
2024 season: 22-17.
