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Forward of the convention championship video games, our media crew has dived deep into the numbers to ship key insights for each NFL matchup, highlighting the hidden storylines and standout performances that form every recreation.
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Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles
QB Jayden Daniels is flourishing below strain
Washington’s offense rides on the shoulders of Jayden Daniels, whose stellar play has continued to raise the crew. The rookie quarterback has been phenomenal below strain, incomes an elite 97.0 general grade throughout this playoff run — the very best for any quarterback in a single postseason since 2006.
It’s not simply Daniels’ mobility that units him aside, as his 92.8 passing grade below strain can be the perfect of any quarterback within the playoffs over that very same span.
Of Jayden Daniels’ 28 pressured dropbacks this postseason, he’s been sacked simply as soon as. And whereas his scrambling potential is a crucial a part of his recreation, Daniels has additionally excelled via the air below strain, finishing 14 of his 21 cross makes an attempt for 203 yards — the very best passing whole below strain heading into the convention championship video games.
How Daniels has fared in opposition to the Eagles this season
Philadelphia’s protection made life tough for Jayden Daniels of their Week 11 matchup, pressuring him on 11 dropbacks. Daniels accomplished 4-of-6 passes for 59 yards however threw an interception and took three sacks. He managed only one speeding scramble below strain in that recreation. Nonetheless, the rematch in Week 16 instructed a really completely different story.
The Eagles pressured Daniels on 19 of his 46 dropbacks in Week 16, however they recorded just one sack whereas permitting him to scramble 5 occasions for 48 yards. The Commanders’ rookie shined below strain, finishing 6-of-13 passes for 117 yards and three touchdowns. Notably, the 117 passing yards below strain had been probably the most allowed by the Eagles in a single recreation all season.
So, Vic Fangio’s defensive unit might face a big problem this weekend, even when managing to generate strain in opposition to Jayden Daniels and the Commanders’ offense. This might show uncommon for an Eagles protection that excelled throughout the common season, producing strain on the eighth-highest charge within the league (36.5%).
The Commanders should cease the run
No crew ran the ball on first down extra usually than the Eagles throughout the common season, doing so at a 64% charge. They’ve leaned into this tendency even additional within the postseason, working on 71% of first downs. The Commanders’ protection might want to decide to stopping the run early, as forcing Philadelphia into third-and-long conditions might create important challenges for his or her offense. The Eagles have transformed simply one in all 11 third downs with seven or extra yards to go this postseason, with a 9% conversion charge that ranks because the lowest amongst all playoff groups.
To power lengthy conversions on essential downs, Washington will doubtless stick to their aggressive technique of sending early-down run blitzes. Throughout the common season, the Commanders executed 101 run blitzes on first and second down mixed, tied for the second-most within the NFL. Their 51 run blitzes on first down alone ranked fifth general. Within the postseason, Washington leads all groups with 13 run blitzes on run downs, a key think about limiting Saquon Barkley. The Eagles’ star working again has confronted 10 run blitzes within the playoffs, gaining simply 21 yards and selecting up just one first down in these conditions.
BUFFALO BILLS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The Payments’ floor recreation is shining
The Payments’ floor recreation has been a cornerstone of their postseason success, notably spectacular given the standard of their opponents. Regardless of going through groups that ranked first and fourth in EPA allowed per run play throughout the common season, Buffalo leads all playoff groups with a 57% run play charge and ranks second with a 46% success charge on run performs.
How the Payments’ floor recreation fared in opposition to the Chiefs in Week 11
Whereas they discovered some success working the ball of their Week 11 matchup with the Chiefs, a lot of it got here from Josh Allen’s improvisation. In that recreation, the Payments gained 45 yards on 5 scrambles (9.0 yards per carry) in comparison with simply 59 yards on 26 designed runs (2.3 yards per carry).
A major motive for Josh Allen’s frequent scrambles in opposition to the Chiefs was the relentless strain he confronted. Of their Week 11 matchup, Allen was pressured on a season-high 19 dropbacks however dealt with it impressively, taking no sacks, averaging 8.3 yards per dropback and accounting for 2 whole touchdowns.
That recreation marked one in all solely two cases all season the place the Chiefs didn’t document a sack. Nonetheless, they’re coming into this week off a dominant efficiency, having posted a season-best eight sacks in opposition to the Texans.
We might see some fireworks on crossing routes
This matchup may very well be outlined by explosive performs on crossing routes. Each offenses lean closely on this idea, with Josh Allen rating fifth in crossing route makes an attempt (64) and Patrick Mahomes tied for ninth (56) this season. Defensively, each groups have struggled to comprise these performs. The Payments have allowed an explosive cross (15-plus yards) on a league-high 38.8% of crossing routes confronted, whereas the Chiefs aren’t far behind, giving up an explosive play on 34.1% of such makes an attempt, the NFL’s fifth-worst mark.
The Chiefs want yet another large recreation out of Travis Kelce
Travis Kelce delivered a classic playoff efficiency in opposition to the Texans, racking up a season-best 117 receiving yards and incomes a stellar 91.1 PFF grade. Traditionally, he has been a nightmare for the Payments, enjoying a pivotal position in Kansas Metropolis’s 3-0 document in opposition to them throughout the Mahomes period. Over these three matchups, Kelce has averaged 8.7 catches, 96 yards and 1.7 touchdowns per recreation. Together with the common season, no participant has surpassed Kelce’s eight receiving touchdowns and 40 whole receiving conversions in opposition to Buffalo since 2018.
Nonetheless, the Payments managed to neutralize him of their Week 11 assembly this season, holding Kelce to only two catches for 8 yards. Linebacker Terrel Bernard performed a key position in that effort, permitting zero catches and even snagging an interception in his seven matchups in opposition to Kelce throughout that recreation.
The Chiefs’ pass-protection points
Joe Thuney has confronted a big problem transitioning from left guard to left sort out to guard Patrick Mahomes’ blind aspect. Whereas he has allowed only one sack at left sort out—in comparison with 11 given up by the remainder of Kansas Metropolis’s left tackles this season—his 55.8 pass-blocking grade on the place is a pointy decline from his stellar 90.4 grade at left guard. In the meantime, substitute left guard Mike Caliendo has struggled much more, incomes a 46.0 pass-blocking grade.
Thuney is about to face a tricky take a look at in opposition to Greg Rousseau, who led the Payments with six pressures of their Week 11 matchup in opposition to the Chiefs. Rousseau’s efficiency that recreation contributed to his career-high 63 whole pressures this season, making him a big think about Buffalo’s cross rush.
