• Bo Nix continues to steadily enhance in opposition to the blitz: In his first seven video games, Nix ranked twenty sixth amongst qualifying quarterbacks in passer score vs. the blitz (70.2), and his 5.4 yards per try ranked twenty fifth. Over his final seven video games dealing with the blitz, Nix has posted a 113.5 passer score (ninth-best) and eight.4 yards per try (eighth). This progress echoes his ultimate season at Oregon, the place he led all FBS passers with 21 landing passes when blitzed.
• A matchup price watching: Terry McLaurin leads all gamers in left outdoors extensive receiver snaps, logging 559 this season. Quinyon Mitchell ranks second amongst defenders in proper outdoors cornerback snaps, with 775. This units up a compelling matchup when the Eagles play man protection. McLaurin’s 70% catch charge in opposition to man protection ranks fifth amongst extensive receivers, and his 5 receiving touchdowns are tied for the third-most.
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Estimated studying time: 9 minutes
For 17 years, PFF has constructed essentially the most detailed soccer database on this planet, analyzing each participant on each play throughout the NFL, school soccer and past. Trusted by all 32 NFL groups and numerous others, PFF offers the info that helps uncover the actual story behind each sport.
Forward of NFL Week 16, our media crew has dived deep into the numbers to ship key insights for each NFL matchup, highlighting the hidden storylines and standout performances that form every sport.
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DEN@LAC | HOU@KC | PIT@BAL | CLE@CIN | PHI@WAS | DET@CHI ARI@CAR
NYG@ATL | LAR@NYJ | TEN@IND | MIN@SEA | NE@BUF
JAX@LV | SF@MIA | TB@DAL | NO@GB
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers
Bo Nix continues to steadily enhance in opposition to the blitz as his rookie season progresses. In his first seven video games, Nix ranked twenty sixth amongst qualifying quarterbacks in passer score vs. the blitz (70.2), and his 5.4 yards per try ranked twenty fifth. Over his final seven video games dealing with the blitz, Nix has posted a 113.5 passer score (ninth-best) and eight.4 yards per try (eighth). This progress echoes his ultimate season at Oregon, the place he led all FBS passers with 21 landing passes when blitzed.
On the opposite aspect, Vance Joseph’s blitz-heavy strategy towards Justin Herbert is price noting. Of their Week 6 matchup, Joseph blitzed on 63% of Herbert’s dropbacks — Denver’s second-highest charge this season. Opting for the standard go rush in opposition to Herbert comes with threat; for the reason that begin of the 2023 season, Herbert is PFF’s highest-graded passer when defenses select to not blitz.
Houston Texans @ Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
The Chiefs have struggled mightily to seek out stability on the left deal with place this season. 4 totally different gamers have logged 60 or extra snaps anchoring the left aspect of the offensive line. Rookie Kingsley Suamataia was benched after Week 2, Wanya Morris has struggled all through the season, D.J. Humphries was injured in his first sport, and Joe Thuney’s All-Professional play at left guard hasn’t translated effectively to left deal with. Consequently, the group has allowed the second-highest strain charge (11%) and the second-most pressures (62) within the NFL this yr.
Who will begin this week in opposition to the elite edge-rushing duo of Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter stays unsure. Anderson has lined up over the left deal with on greater than half of his snaps this season, whereas Hunter has achieved so on 36% of his. Each rank within the prime 10 amongst edge defenders in pass-rush win charge and sacks in 2024 — the one crew within the NFL with two gamers who could make that declare.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
The Steelers make use of play motion at a top-five charge (30%), however their strategy is conservative, yielding restricted success. Russell Wilson‘s common depth of goal on play-action performs is simply 4.7 yards — the bottom amongst 32 qualifying quarterbacks — and the Steelers‘ 5.8 common yards per play ranks twenty ninth within the league.
However, Baltimore’s protection has been weak to massive performs off play motion. They’ve allowed 9 landing passes, tied for the third-most within the NFL, and have a passer score of 112.7, the sixth-highest within the league.
Pittsburgh’s protection will probably give attention to contain-rushing Lamar Jackson to stifle the Ravens‘ offense. The Steelers have excelled at disrupting opposing quarterbacks this season, not simply by means of pressures and sacks but in addition by main the league with 19 batted passes.
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
Jerome Ford struggled with drop points throughout his rookie season, together with his 9 drops main all operating backs. He has considerably improved as a receiver this yr, with only one drop on 37 targets. Ford’s improved reliability could possibly be a key issue within the Browns’ sport plan this week, particularly in opposition to a Bengals protection permitting a 91% completion charge to operating backs — tied for the third-highest within the league. Moreover, since Logan Wilson‘s absence from the lineup, Cincinnati has given up 245 receiving yards to operating backs since Week 12, essentially the most within the NFL.
One other participant demonstrating improved fingers this season is Bengals extensive receiver Tee Higgins. He presently has a 3.6% drop charge on catchable passes, the bottom of his profession for a single season.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
Terry McLaurin leads all gamers in left outdoors extensive receiver snaps, logging 559 this season. Quinyon Mitchell ranks second amongst defenders in proper outdoors cornerback snaps, with 775. This units up a compelling matchup when the Eagles play man protection. McLaurin’s 70% catch charge in opposition to man protection ranks fifth amongst extensive receivers, and his 5 receiving touchdowns are tied for the third-most. In the meantime, Mitchell is PFF’s fourth-highest-graded cornerback in man protection at 76.4 and has but to give up a landing in these conditions this season.
Saquon Barkley torched the Commanders for 146 speeding yards in Week 11, gaining 96 yards earlier than contact — his second-highest complete of the season. Barkley leads all operating backs this yr by averaging 2.6 yards earlier than contact per try. The Commanders’ protection has struggled considerably on this space, permitting 2.0 yards earlier than contact per try on run performs, which is the worst mark within the league.
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
Accidents seem to have caught as much as the Lions’ protection unit over the previous two weeks. Via Week 13, Detroit allowed a league-low 74.9 passer score in protection. Nevertheless, within the final two video games, that quantity has jumped to 118.4, the third-worst mark over that span.
Darnell Wright has proven important enchancment in his second season. His 4.3% strain charge allowed ranks Thirteenth-lowest amongst 38 proper tackles with no less than 150 pass-blocking snaps. It is a main step ahead in comparison with his rookie yr when his 8.7% strain charge ranked thirty third out of 42 proper tackles assembly the identical snap minimal.
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers
The extension for Arizona security Budda Baker is effectively deserved, because the Cardinals’ veteran chief continues to carry out at a excessive stage in his eighth season. Baker leads all safeties in defensive stops this yr, tallying 50 — a powerful quantity contemplating Grant Delpit is the subsequent closest at 35.
Baker and the Cardinals’ protection might want to hold an in depth eye on rookie UDFA Jalen Coker, who posted a career-high 110 receiving yards final week. The final undrafted rookie extensive receiver to surpass the 100-yard mark in a sport was Brandon Powell in Week 17 of the 2018 season for the Detroit Lions.
New York Giants @ Atlanta Falcons
Amid the Giants’ disappointing 2024 season, Brian Burns’ efficiency has been a shiny spot. The proficient edge rusher has posted a career-high 14% pass-rush win charge and a private better of 24 run stops this season.
In the meantime, the Michael Penix Jr. period formally kicks off for Atlanta, with the Falcons firmly within the playoff hunt. In his ultimate season at Washington, Penix Jr. led all FBS quarterbacks with 128 deep go makes an attempt (20 or extra yards downfield). Count on the rookie to showcase his arm expertise in his beginning debut, particularly in opposition to a Giants protection that has allowed a league-high 128.6 passer score on deep throws.
Los Angeles Rams @ New York Jets
When the Rams want a short-yardage conversion, it’s no secret who will get the ball. On downs with two yards or fewer to go, Kyren Williams leads the NFL with 51 carries and 37 conversions. Since 2023, his 78% conversion charge on short-yardage rush makes an attempt ranks fifth-best amongst all gamers, trailing solely quarterbacks. The Jets might be hoping for a change within the Rams’ strategy, as they permit only a 43% conversion charge on short-yardage go performs, the bottom within the league, in comparison with a 75% conversion charge on run performs, the fourth-highest.
Of their Week 15 victory over the Jaguars, Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams delivered a classic efficiency, combining for 198 yards — their first time topping 150 yards since Week 5 of 2021. A lot of their success got here on downfield passes, with Adams catching 4 of seven targets thrown 10 or extra yards downfield for 149 yards and a landing. They could possibly be in for an additional massive sport in opposition to a Rams protection that has allowed 14 touchdowns to extensive receivers on downfield targets, essentially the most within the NFL.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
T’Vondre Sweat’s rookie season now features a highlight-reel fumble return in opposition to the Bengals final week, as his general efficiency has picked up in current weeks. Since Week 11, Sweat has recorded 15 complete pressures, tied for eleventh amongst inside defensive linemen. This marks a major enchancment, contemplating he had simply seven pressures from Weeks 1-10, underscoring his rising affect on the Titans protection over the previous 5 video games.
Regardless of having expertise at operating again with Jonathan Taylor and at quarterback with Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis has struggled in short-yardage conditions on run performs. The Colts have transformed a landing or first down on simply 59% of their run performs with two yards or fewer to go, tying for the fifth-worst charge in 2024. Tennessee, however, boasts the stingiest protection in these eventualities, permitting a league-best 46% conversion charge.
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith thrives when the Seahawks shift to a no-huddle offense. He ranks second amongst qualifying quarterbacks in passing grade at 88.7 and has gathered 1,038 passing yards on no-huddle dropbacks. The Vikings’ go protection is robust general, permitting a 35% success charge, the fifth-best mark within the league. Nevertheless, that success charge rises to 42% when defending no-huddle dropbacks, rating 18th.
On the opposite aspect, the Vikings’ pass-catchers have excelled on crossing routes, recording 45 receptions for 674 yards and 9 touchdowns — all rating first or second within the NFL. Seven totally different Vikings have scored a landing on a crossing route, greater than every other crew. The Seahawks’ defenders have confronted the second-most targets on crossing routes (59) however have defended them successfully, permitting 9.0 yards per goal, the eighth-best mark within the league.
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Payments
The Payments‘ offense has scored a landing on an NFL-leading 37% of drives, a lot of which have come within the crimson zone, the place Buffalo can assault defenses in a number of methods. Josh Allen has accounted for 28 red-zone touchdowns (20 passing and eight speeding), trailing solely Lamar Jackson amongst quarterbacks. James Cook dinner has additionally been productive, tying for fifth amongst operating backs with 11 red-zone touchdowns (10 speeding and 1 receiving). The Patriots’ protection should enhance within the crimson zone, having surrendered 32 red-zone touchdowns, tied for the third-most within the league.
Drake Maye has shortly impressed by means of his improvisational abilities, excelling as each a scrambler and a passer. On dropbacks labeled as “scramble drill,” he leads all qualifying quarterbacks in passing grade (95.2). The Payments’ protection has struggled in these conditions, permitting a league-high six passing touchdowns on scramble drill performs.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Las Vegas Raiders
Brian Thomas has shortly established himself as one of many NFL’s premier vertical threats, main all pass-catchers in vertical route receiving yards with 352, together with 122 yards after the catch — the second-most within the league. The Raiders’ protection, nevertheless, has been troublesome to use on this space, permitting simply 275 receiving yards on vertical routes, the second-fewest behind the Eagles.
Jakobi Meyers has made a powerful case for having the perfect fingers within the league as the one pass-catcher to succeed in 100 targets with out a single drop. His 67% contested catch charge is tied for the fourth-best within the NFL. He faces a tricky problem in opposition to a Jaguars cornerback group that has compelled 27 incompletions, rating sixth amongst groups.
San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins
Jonnu Smith has emerged as a key playmaker for the Dolphins, notably in the midst of the sphere. On targets contained in the numbers, he leads all tight ends in receiving yards at 544 and ranks second, behind George Kittle, in receptions of 15 or extra yards with 10. Nevertheless, he’ll face a tricky problem in opposition to 49ers linebacker Fred Warner, whose 91.9 PFF protection grade on targets contained in the numbers is the second-best amongst certified defenders.
Brock Purdy has confronted unblocked strain on 56 dropbacks this season, trailing solely C.J. Stroud in that class. Regardless of the strain, Purdy has excelled at getting the ball out shortly, finishing 45 passes for 278 yards and 4 touchdowns in these conditions. He’ll face one other take a look at in opposition to a Dolphins protection that generates unblocked strain at a 12% charge, the second-highest within the league.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
Few have began video games stronger than Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers this season. No crew has scored extra offensive factors on their opening drives (42) or discovered the top zone at a better charge (50%) than Tampa Bay in 2024. Solely the Cardinals (6.8) common extra yards per play on first drives than the Buccaneers (6.6). In the meantime, the Cowboys protection has struggled early, permitting essentially the most yards per play (6.6) and rating within the backside three for landing charge and offensive factors allowed on opponents’ opening drives.
Count on loads of display passes on this matchup. The Buccaneers have used screens on 17% of their performs this season, the third-highest charge within the league. The Cowboys, in the meantime, have adjusted their strategy in current weeks. They ranked twenty sixth in display charge from Weeks 1-9 whereas Dak Prescott was wholesome however jumped to eleventh since Cooper Rush took over in Week 10. Each groups rank within the prime eight in common yards per play on display passes this season.
New Orleans Saints @ Inexperienced Bay Packers
Josh Jacobs is setting the tone for the Packers offense on early downs, as he has racked up 246 carries for 1,111 yards and 11 touchdowns on first and second down — all of which rank within the prime three within the NFL. The Saints may battle to include him until they tighten up a run protection that’s permitting 4.9 yards per keep on first and second down, the second-worst mark within the league.
Opposing defensive coordinators have relentlessly examined Spencer Rattler with aggressive pass-rush schemes. Amongst 44 quarterbacks with no less than 100 dropbacks, Rattler has confronted a blitz on 38% of his dropbacks, the second-highest charge, and his 53.7 passing grade in opposition to the blitz ranks sixth-lowest. The Packers’ blitz-heavy strategy may exploit this weak point, as they lead the NFL with a 53% strain charge when blitzing.
