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Forward of the divisional spherical, our media crew has dived deep into the numbers to ship key insights for each NFL matchup, highlighting the hidden storylines and standout performances that form every recreation.
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HOU@KC | WAS@DET | LAR@PHI | BAL@BUF
Houston Texans @ Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
Of their Week 16 matchup, C.J. Stroud exploited the Chiefs protection with intermediate throws, incomes an elite 94.0 passing grade on makes an attempt between 10-19 yards — his highest mark of the season. Stroud accomplished 8-of-10 passes in that vary for 131 yards and a landing, producing a near-perfect 152.1 passer score. The 131 yards are nonetheless essentially the most the Chiefs have allowed on intermediate throws in a single recreation all season.
Stroud struggled on deeper throws in the identical contest, connecting on simply 1-of-8 passes of 20 or extra yards. These struggles replicate his broader challenges with deep passing all through the 2024 season, as his 57.7 passer score on such makes an attempt ranked thirty first out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks, barely forward of Patrick Mahomes at 59.6.
For Mahomes, deep passing proved to be an uncharacteristic weak spot in 2024. He averaged a career-low 6.8 yards per try and posted the fewest deep completions (12) since changing into a starter in 2018. Over his ultimate 4 regular-season video games, Mahomes accomplished simply 1-of-12 deep makes an attempt, highlighting the dearth of explosive performs within the Chiefs offense.
Houston’s protection, in the meantime, has been susceptible to deep photographs, permitting 10 touchdowns on passes of 20 or extra yards — tied for the third-most within the NFL. Opposing offenses focused the Texans deep on the second-highest charge within the league (14.3% of cross makes an attempt), presenting an space for Kansas Metropolis to probably exploit if Mahomes can reverse his latest struggles.
Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions
Washington’s no-huddle offense may pose important challenges for the Lions protection on this NFC showdown. The Commanders lead the NFL in no-huddle utilization, working at a 61% charge and pairing it with a extremely efficient floor recreation. Washington averages 5.4 yards per carry when working out of no-huddle, fueled by Brian Robinson Jr. (5.2 yards per carry) and quarterback Jayden Daniels (6.4 yards per carry). The duo has been a nightmare for defenses, combining for 32 explosive runs of 10 or extra yards on these performs, with Daniels main the NFL on this class in the course of the common season.
The Lions have struggled in opposition to no-huddle speeding assaults, incomes the third-lowest crew run-defense grade (43.7) in such conditions. Opposing offenses gashed them for explosive runs at a league-high charge of 30.4%, averaging 5.9 yards per carry. Detroit additionally allowed a staggering 4.1 speeding yards earlier than contact per try.
On the opposite aspect of the ball, the Lions’ play-action offense could possibly be pivotal on this matchup. Jared Goff thrived in Ben Johnson’s scheme this season, finishing 74.6% of his play-action passes — the second-highest mark within the league — and producing a 120.7 passer score that ranks fourth. Detroit’s dynamic assault is able to hitting defenses at each degree. Jameson Williams led the crew with 583 receiving yards on play fakes and a 16.1-yard common goal depth, whereas Amon-Ra St. Brown and tight finish Sam LaPorta dominated beneath. The Lions’ backfield duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs additional bolstered the offense, contributing to a league-high 57 explosive receptions of 15 or extra yards off play fakes.
Curiously, the Commanders protection is well-equipped to gradual play-action assaults. They’ve allowed the Tenth-lowest passer score (94.0) in opposition to play motion and boast the NFL’s highest contested goal charge (18.4%). Dan Quinn’s unit additionally excelled at limiting large performs, giving up simply 6.7 yards per play on play fakes — the fifth-best mark within the league.
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
Containing the Eagles’ high two speeding threats can be essential for the Rams’ success on this playoff rematch. Of their Week 12 regular-season matchup, Saquon Barkley exploded for a season-high 255 speeding yards, together with second-half landing runs of 72 and 70 yards. Barkley has been the Eagles’ nearer all season, main the league with 186 carries, 1,245 speeding yards, and eight speeding touchdowns within the third and fourth quarters, averaging a powerful 6.7 yards per carry. The Rams, in the meantime, have struggled in late-game conditions, permitting 4.9 yards per carry within the second half—the fifth-worst mark amongst all defenses.
Play motion has been a cornerstone of success for the Rams offense, with Matthew Stafford persevering with his effectivity on these performs. Towards the Vikings final week, Stafford accomplished 8 of 11 play-action passes for 94 yards and a landing. He’s the one quarterback with a 90-plus PFF passing grade on play-action dropbacks in every of the previous two seasons. The Rams have additionally thrived on explosive performs from play motion, tallying 47 such performs this season—second solely to the Lions. Nevertheless, the Eagles protection has excelled in defending play motion, permitting simply 5.3 yards per play, the very best mark within the league.
Puka Nacua stands out because the Rams’ most harmful ability participant, constantly excelling in opposition to all types of protection. Amongst certified receivers, he ranks second with 3.85 yards per route run in opposition to man protection and leads the league with 3.66 yards per route run versus zone. Nevertheless, he faces a troublesome problem in rookie defensive again Cooper DeJean, who has been distinctive in man protection from the slot. DeJean has allowed simply eight catches for 64 yards on 17 targets this season, incomes the fourth-highest PFF protection grade at his place.
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Payments
The Ravens handed the Payments their greatest lack of the season again in Week 4, fueled by a relentless floor recreation that piled up 271 speeding yards — 118 greater than another crew has managed in opposition to Buffalo this 12 months. Of these yards, 176 got here earlier than contact, with the aspect averaging 2.3 speeding yards earlier than contact per try.
Nevertheless, Buffalo’s defensive entrance has proven important enchancment since that matchup, as they’ve allowed simply 0.9 speeding yards earlier than contact per try since Week 5, the third-best mark within the league in that span.
Lamar Jackson was medical throwing contained in the numbers in opposition to the Payments in Week 4, finishing 7 -of-8 makes an attempt for 88 yards and a landing, showcasing the precision that earned him a 95.2 passing grade on such throws this season — second solely to Joe Burrow. Nevertheless, Jackson could possibly be with out his high goal in the midst of the sector, Zay Flowers, who ranked third amongst all gamers with 15.7 yards per catch on targets contained in the numbers. The Payments have struggled on this space, permitting 13.8 yards per catch to large receivers contained in the numbers, the fifth-worst mark amongst NFL defenses.
Regardless of their win over the Steelers, the Ravens delivered their worst efficiency of the season defending the deep ball, permitting 5 completions for 154 yards and two touchdowns — all season-highs. Now, they face Josh Allen, who ranks second amongst quarterbacks with a 95.8 passing grade on deep makes an attempt and leads the league with 30 big-time throws, 4 of which got here in opposition to Baltimore of their Week 4 matchup.
Khalil Shakir is one other risk for the Payments to look at. He had the third-most yards after the catch within the wild-card spherical (50) and ranked third within the common season with 605 yards after the catch. Over a 3rd of that got here on large screens, along with his 220 yards after catch on these performs rating second-best within the league. The Ravens contained yards after the catch effectively in Week 4, permitting simply 4.1 yards per reception to the Payments, contributing to their season-long mark of 5.0 — the fourth-best amongst defenses.
