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Forward of NFL Week 18, our media staff has dived deep into the numbers to ship key insights for each NFL matchup, highlighting the hidden storylines and standout performances that form every recreation.
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LAC@HOU | PIT@BAL | DEN@BUF | GB@PHI | WAS@TB | MIN@LAR
Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans
Justin Herbert overcame a sluggish begin to the season to complete as one of many league’s most harmful passers.
Herbert struggled over the primary six weeks, rating twenty fifth in passing yards per try (6.5), twentieth in PFF big-time throw price (3.0%) and twenty sixth in passing grade (58.2). Nevertheless, he has been a revelation since Week 7, incomes PFF’s highest passing grade (93.4), rating fourth in big-time throw price (7.1%), and posting the sixth-best passing YPA (8.1).
A vital issue on this turnaround has been a strategic shift by the Chargers to lean on the passing recreation earlier in drives. By the primary six weeks, the staff handed on simply 43.7% of early downs, the bottom price within the NFL. Since then, that quantity has jumped to 60.5%, rating fifth league-wide.
Whereas the Chargers discovered their rhythm, the identical can’t be mentioned for C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans. Houston’s offense has struggled with consistency, rating nineteenth in EPA per play and recording a league-low constructive EPA price of 38.4%. The Texans’ boom-or-bust nature has outlined their season: they rank tenth in performs of 10 or extra yards (222) however thirty first in performs that resulted in a loss or no achieve (108). This volatility has restricted their capability to maintain drives successfully.
A significant component within the Texans’ struggles has been their incapability to guard Stroud. The rookie quarterback has been sacked 52 occasions, the second-most within the NFL behind Caleb Williams. Whereas a few of this may be attributed to Stroud holding onto the ball, a lot of the blame falls on an offensive line that has allowed a league-high 76 unblocked pressures in go safety.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has hit a wall throughout their ongoing four-game dropping streak, failing to carry a lead in any of these video games. A key difficulty has been their incapability to guard Russell Wilson. Over this stretch, Pittsburgh’s offensive line and blocking unit have allowed 11 sacks, tied for essentially the most within the NFL since Week 15. The unit has additionally posted a 34% stress price allowed, the sixth-highest within the league, highlighting their struggles to maintain the pocket clear.
The Baltimore Ravens will look to use these points with their evolving pass-rushing technique. Since Week 16, Baltimore has recorded a simulated stress on 51% of snaps, the best price within the league. If the Ravens can get to Wilson, it may spell hassle for the Steelers offense, as Wilson has struggled mightily beneath stress. His 43.9 passer score beneath stress over the previous 4 video games ranks twenty third out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks, and his 2.2 yards per try ranks lifeless final.
On the opposite aspect of the ball, Derrick Henry looms giant as a vital issue on this matchup. Of their Week 16 conflict, Henry ran rampant towards the Steelers, recording seven explosive runs of 10 or extra yards — a season-high for the bruising again.
Pittsburgh’s protection struggled to carry him down, permitting eight pressured missed tackles on his speeding makes an attempt, the second-most Henry has recorded in a recreation this 12 months. His 74 speeding yards after contact tied the best whole the Steelers have allowed to a single participant this season, underscoring the necessity for Pittsburgh to tighten up their tackling and include Henry within the backfield.
Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Payments
The Broncos may discover success towards a susceptible Buffalo run protection that enables explosive runs of 10 or extra yards on the second-highest price within the league (15% of speeding makes an attempt confronted).
Denver’s running-back-by-committee method lacks a real lead again, however Jaleel McLaughlin has emerged as their most dynamic choice. McLaughlin leads the Broncos’ backfield with 16 explosive runs, rating fifth amongst 46 operating backs with at the very least 100 carries in explosive run price (14%). He additionally boasts a powerful 1.8 yards earlier than contact per try, the best amongst Denver’s operating backs, making him a key participant to look at.
Buffalo’s protection thrives on disguising coverages, utilizing that method on the sixth-highest price within the league (36%). Rookie quarterback Bo Nix will seemingly be cautious when dealing with these seems to be. His common depth of goal towards disguised coverages is simply 6.2 yards, rating thirty first out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks. Nevertheless, Nix’s mobility may change into an element, as he has proven a bent to scramble towards disguise, with an 8% scramble price that ranks fourth-highest amongst quarterbacks this season.
Inexperienced Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles
The rematch between the Packers and Eagles in Philadelphia comes with important personnel adjustments, significantly for Inexperienced Bay.
The absence of Christian Watson may affect the Packers’ offensive technique. Watson has been their most explosive receiving weapon, with 48% of his receptions gaining 15 or extra yards and 37% of his targets approaching throws 20-plus yards downfield — the second-highest price amongst receivers with at the very least 50 targets this season.
Adapting to a brief passing recreation may fit within the Packers’ favor towards a formidable Eagles secondary that excels at defending deep pictures. Philadelphia permits only a 48.5 passer score on throws 20 or extra yards downfield, the second-lowest within the NFL, and their league-leading 33% pressured incompletion price has made huge performs practically not possible.
Nevertheless, Inexperienced Bay thrives within the brief recreation, with pass-catchers turning throws of 9 yards or much less — together with these behind the road of scrimmage — into explosive positive factors of 15 or extra yards at a 12% price, the third-highest price within the league. Their 6.6 yards after the catch common on brief throws ranks fifth, and their 59 missed tackles pressured are seventh-most general.
Defensively, the Packers will likely be with out Jaire Alexander, prompting changes to their scheme beneath Jeff Hafley. Inexperienced Bay has leaned closely on Cowl-2 since Week 13, using it on 27% of their snaps — the best price within the league. The outcomes have been promising, as they’ve allowed simply 5.3 yards per play (ninth-lowest) and produced a contested goal price of 12% (additionally ninth-highest).
This method may pose challenges for Jalen Hurts, who has struggled considerably towards Cowl-2 defenses. Hurts has an 89.1 passer score (14th amongst quarterbacks) and seven.2 yards per try (seventeenth) towards cover-2 this season, and he has but to throw a landing on 70 makes an attempt versus the protection.
Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The highlight of this playoff showdown will undoubtedly shine on the matchup between Mike Evans and Marshon Lattimore, two gamers with a storied historical past of intense battles within the NFC South. Since Lattimore entered the league in 2017, he has constantly made life tough for Evans, holding him to only 15 catches for 306 yards over 12 regular-season matchups—a mean of 1.3 catches and 25.5 yards per recreation. A key consider Lattimore’s success has been his physicality, contesting 42% of the targets thrown Evans’ approach in comparison with the 16% contested price Evans faces towards different defenders in his profession.
Penalties may additionally play a vital position on this matchup. Evans has drawn 55 pass-interference penalties since coming into the league in 2014, second solely to DeAndre Hopkins (56). In the meantime, Lattimore has been flagged for go interference 21 occasions since 2017, the third-highest mark amongst defenders.
Of their Week 1 assembly, the Buccaneers held Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels to 184 passing yards, his lowest output in any full recreation this season. Nevertheless, Daniels posed important issues on the bottom, speeding for 77 yards, 5 conversions, and 4 explosive runs on scrambles—all season highs. His 595 speeding yards on scrambles this season rank because the third-most in a single season by a quarterback within the PFF period. Tampa Bay’s protection has struggled towards scrambling quarterbacks all 12 months, permitting a 65% success price on such performs, the third-worst within the league.
Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Rams
Of their Week 8 matchup, Matthew Stafford dealt with the Vikings’ unique go protection with poise, incomes an 81.5 passing grade—the best by any quarterback towards Minnesota this season. To disrupt Stafford this time, the Vikings should enhance their pass-rush effectiveness, which has been a weak spot of their earlier encounter. Minnesota generated a 24% stress price towards the Rams in Week 8, their second-lowest mark of the season, and did not file a sack—considered one of simply two such video games this 12 months. That’s troubling, contemplating Stafford’s stark efficiency hole when pressured. His 90.8 passing grade when stored clear plummets to 29.6 when beneath duress, the most important drop-off amongst qualifying quarterbacks.
The Vikings’ reliance on the passing recreation close to the purpose line has been a key a part of their offensive identification, rating sixth in pass-play price contained in the 10-yard line at 58%. Whereas this method has paid off all through the season, with Sam Darnold throwing 20 passing touchdowns from that vary—third-most within the league—it backfired of their Week 18 loss to the Lions. Towards Detroit, Darnold accomplished simply 1 of 9 passes for 3 yards and no touchdowns on 11 performs contained in the 10-yard line, together with two failed fourth-down makes an attempt. Whereas the Lions boast the league’s greatest passer score allowed throughout the 10-yard line (58.0), the Rams are an in depth second at 66.8, presenting one other robust problem.
Jordan Addison, the Vikings’ go-to menace within the purple zone, couldn’t convert his lone goal throughout the 10-yard line in Week 18 however has in any other case been dependable. From Weeks 1-17, Addison introduced in all eight of his targets contained in the 10-yard line for 42 yards and 4 touchdowns, proving to be a constant and environment friendly weapon in tight areas. The Vikings will want him to ship towards a formidable Rams protection to show these close-range alternatives into factors.
