Welcome to the Thursday version of the Choose Six e-newsletter!
We’re getting our first Thursday evening sport of December tonight, and issues are beginning off with a bang because the Lions shall be internet hosting the Packers in an NFC North showdown. That is the previous “Thanksgiving leftovers” sport the place the NFL takes two groups that performed on Thanksgiving and has them play one another the next Thursday.
Talking of Thanksgiving leftovers, it is a good time to complete yours earlier than they go unhealthy. I discovered the exhausting approach final 12 months that inexperienced bean casserole does NOT have an extended shelf life.
Anyway, we’ll be handing out picks and finest bets for tonight’s sport, plus we’ll be having a look at who’s main the MVP race and we’ll even be breaking down all of the playoff-clinching eventualities for Week 14.
As all the time, this is your every day reminder to inform all your mates to enroll in the e-newsletter or you may inform folks you run into on the grocery retailer. That additionally works. To get them signed up, all you must do is click on right here.
1. Thursday evening preview: Picks and finest bets for Packers at Lions
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This can be a large sport for each groups, however particularly for Inexperienced Bay (9-3). If the Packers wish to have any shot of profitable the NFC North, then they’ll have to drag off the upset tonight in Detroit in a sport the place they seem to be a 3.5-point underdog to the Lions.
Each groups shall be lacking a number of key gamers tonight. On Detroit’s finish, they will not have D.J. Reader (shoulder) or their beginning left sort out, Taylor Decker (knee), who’s lacking his second straight sport. As for the Packers, they will not have Romeo Doubs (concussion) or Jaire Alexander (knee).
With that in thoughts, this is one motive why every crew needs to be feeling assured a few attainable win:
- Why the Packers can win: If the Packers are going to drag off the upset tonight, they’re most likely going to wish an enormous sport from Jordan Love. The Lions are surrendering 226.8 passing yards per sport this 12 months, which is the eighth-worst quantity within the NFL, so it would not be stunning in any respect to see Love have an enormous sport. That being stated, the Packers want to ensure to get Josh Jacobs concerned as a result of the very last thing Inexperienced Bay must be doing is throwing on each down. The Packers are 0-3 this 12 months when Love makes an attempt 34 or extra passes, so a balanced offense with Love finishing a high-percentage of his passes could be finest for Inexperienced Bay (The Packers are 5-0 this season when he completes not less than 60% of his passes).
- Why the Lions can win: The explanation the Lions can win is as a result of they’ve the highest-scoring offense within the NFL and it is exhausting for anybody to maintain up with them. The Lions are averaging 31.9 factors per sport and in the event that they get anyplace close to that quantity, Detroit will probably win. The Packers have the second-fewest sacks within the NFL heading into Week 14 and if they can not get any stress on Jared Goff, the Lions QB is probably going going to torch their secondary.
The Lions received their first assembly with the Packers 24-14 in a sport the place Detroit jumped out to a 24-3 lead earlier than coasting to a win.
You will get a full preview of the sport from Cody Benjamin by clicking right here.
In case you’re eager about betting on the sport, listed here are a few props.
- ONE PLAYER PROP I LIKE: Jordan Love OVER 250.5 passing yards (-120 at BetMGM): Jordan Love did not look nice to begin the season, however he is actually come on over the previous 4 weeks. Throughout that interval, the Packers have gone 3-1 and he is thrown for not less than 260 yards in three of these 4 video games. Love threw for 273 yard in his first assembly with the Lions again on Nov. 3, and I might see him placing up the same quantity tonight.
- ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Brandon McManus OVER 6.5 factors (-110 at BetMGM): McManus has gone over this quantity in every of the previous two weeks, and with the best way the Packers offense is taking part in proper now, I will not be shocked if he blows by it once more this week. Additionally, the Lions have the second-best red-zone protection within the NFL this 12 months, which suggests we might see a state of affairs the place the Packers are settling for area targets tonight, which might be excellent news for everybody who bets McManus’ over.
And in case you are questioning, my props at the moment are 32-25 on the season (15-12 on kicker props and 17-13 on all different props).
Anyway, we even have a full Packers-Lions betting preview from SportsLine that you may take a look at right here.
And eventually, listed here are our picks for the sport.
PICKS FOR ‘TNF’
Cody’s choose: Lions 27-26 over Packers
Prisco’s choose: Lions 35-33 over Packers
My choose: Lions 27-24 over Packers
Over on our CBSSports.com picks web page, you may see who our eight consultants are taking by clicking right here.
2. MVP watch: Lamar Jackson takes a tumble
Between now and the top of the season, we’ll be taking a weekly have a look at the MVP race every week and we’ll be doing that by holding our personal straw ballot right here at CBS Sports activities.
What this implies is that we rounded up 13 of our NFL writers and had them vote on who they suppose will win the MVP. In our first ballot from final week, Josh Allen was on high with Lamar Jackson nipping at his heels, however after dropping to the Eagles in Week 13, Jackson has fallen out of second place.
With that in thoughts, this is a have a look at our high 5 heading into Week 14 together with every participant’s level whole. (A participant obtained 5 factors for a first-place vote, 4 factors for a second-place vote and so forth.)
1. Payments QB Josh Allen (61 factors)
2. Eagles RB Saquon Barkley (46 factors)
3. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (37 factors)
4. Lions QB Jared Goff (25 factors)
5. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (7 factors)
As you may see, Allen is presently working away with the award, however do not depend out Barkley. He obtained three out of 13 first-place votes in our ballot and he has a positive schedule down the stretch that can see the Eagles play 4 of the six worst dashing defenses within the NFL. If Barkley hits the two,000-yard mark, he’ll positively be within the dialog, and if he breaks Eric Dickerson’s single-season dashing file of two,105, I feel that could be sufficient to place him excessive. No working again has received the award since Adrian Peterson in 2012.
General, a complete of 10 gamers obtained not less than one vote. If you wish to see a full checklist of each participant who obtained a vote, then make sure to click on right here.
3. Trevor Lawrence replace: Jaguars QB out for season, Tom Brady proposes drastic rule change
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Everybody has a tackle the Trevor Lawerence hit and that features Tom Brady, who had one of the crucial fascinating takes of anybody. Earlier than we get to that, although, let’s check out the most recent information involving the Jaguars quarterback:
- Lawrence’s season is over. The Jaguars positioned Lawrence on injured reserve this week, which suggests he has to overlook not less than the subsequent 4 video games. Though he could be eligible to return in Week 18, that will not be taking place as a result of the Jags QB is planning to have surgical procedure on his left shoulder, which he initially injured earlier this season (You possibly can learn extra about Lawrence right here).
- NFL upholds Texans LB Azeez Al-Shaair’s suspension. The Texans linebacker appealed his suspension, nevertheless it was all for nothing. After a listening to on Wednesday, the NFL determined to uphold Al-Shaair’s three-game suspension, which suggests he’ll be lacking video games in opposition to the Dolphins, Chiefs and Ravens. Al-Shaair’s response to the NFL’s determination got here in a tweet, “IF YOU WANT ME TO BE YOUR VILLAIN, ILL BE YOUR VILLAIN! SEE YOU SOON.” You can take a look at his tweet right here.
As for Brady, he did an interview with Colin Cowherd this week and the seven-time Tremendous Bowl winner stated the other of what you may need anticipated him to say concerning the hit on Lawrence. You’d suppose that Brady would possibly defend a fellow quarterback, however as an alternative, he appeared to facet with Al-Shaair.
- Brady emphasizes with defensive gamers. “When [a quarterback runs], you set your self in plenty of hazard, and while you do this, I do not suppose the onus of defending an offensive quarterback who’s working needs to be on a defensive participant. I do not suppose that is actually truthful to a protection.” Brady thinks that defensive gamers are already in a tricky state of affairs and one thing like letting up simply earlier than hitting a QB who’s about to slip solely makes their job harder.
- Defensive gamers should not be punished for being aggressive. Brady would not wish to see defensive gamers punished for taking part in aggressive soccer. “No one desires to see anyone get harm, however it is usually the fact of a really bodily sport that we play,” Brady stated. “Defensive gamers should be aggressive, that is their nature. I all the time tried to be aggressive on offense, we attempt to block aggressively, and on the similar time, the protection tries to sort out aggressively.”
- Brady proposes a brand new rule. If the NFL desires to discourage huge hits on the quarterback, Brady suggests punishing the quarterback. “Possibly they wonderful or penalize a quarterback for sliding late and say, ‘Look, if we do not need these hits to happen, we have got to penalize the offense and the protection somewhat than simply penalize the defensive participant for each single play that occurs when there is a hit on the quarterback,'” Brady stated. Penalizing the offense could be a drastic rule change if the NFL ever applied it.
If you wish to take a look at Brady’s full feedback, you are able to do that right here.
4. NFL playoff-clinching eventualities for Week 14: Three groups can clinch a postseason spot
There are 14 playoff spots within the NFL and as we prepare to go into Week 14, solely two of them have been clinched. Nevertheless, that would change this week, and that is as a result of there are a complete of three groups that would find yourself punching their ticket to the postseason this week: the Eagles, Lions and Vikings.
All three groups have a number of eventualities the place they will get in, however we’re simply going to try the best one for every crew.
LIONS (11-1)
Best path: Beat Inexperienced Bay. If the Lions beat the Packers tonight (or tie them), they are going to clinch a playoff spot.
EAGLES (10-2)
Best path: The Eagles do not technically have an “best path,” however I would say the one probably to occur is the Eagles beat Panthers mixed with Atlanta dropping to Minnesota mixed with Arizona dropping to Seattle mixed with the Rams dropping to Buffalo.
VIKINGS (10-2)
Best path: There’s just one state of affairs for the Vikings that does not contain not less than one sport ending in a tie, so we will go forward and say that is the “best path.” A Vikings win over Atlanta mixed with a Cardinals loss to the Seahawks mixed with a Rams loss to the Payments would put Minnesota in.
Principally, if the Cardinals and Rams each lose, then Minnesota and Philadelphia will each clinch a playoff spot with a win. The Chiefs, who’ve already clinched a playoff spot, can clinch the AFC West title with a win over the Chargers on Sunday evening.
If you wish to take a look at all 25 clinching eventualities which might be in play throughout Week 14, you are able to do that right here.
5. NFL relaxes drug and PED coverage for gamers
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Gamers across the NFL obtained some excellent news on Wednesday evening with the NFL and NFLPA agreeing to make a number of modifications to the league’s drug and PED insurance policies, and the important thing half right here is that just about all the modifications are player-friendly.
This is what it’s good to know:
- THC threshold goes up. Beneath the previous coverage, a participant failed a drug check if he had 150 nanograms-per-milliliter of THC in his system, however that threshold has now been bumped as much as 350, which greater than doubles previous quantity. Additionally, if a participant fails a check, his crew will now not be instructed which substance prompted the failed check.
- Fines decreased for gamers who check constructive. Beneath the previous coverage, a participant was fined half a sport verify for his first violation and a full sport verify for a second violation. Beneath the brand new coverage, a participant shall be fined simply $15,000 for a primary violation and $20,000 for a second violation. Beneath the previous coverage, somebody who has a excessive base wage might lose a considerable amount of cash to a wonderful whereas somebody making the league minimal would not be hit very exhausting. The brand new coverage punishes everybody equally for his or her first two violations.
- Largest change to the PED coverage. Beneath the previous coverage, if a participant examined constructive for performance-enhancing substances, then he wasn’t allowed to be reinstated till he recorded a destructive check. Beneath the brand new coverage, a participant might be reinstated if the substances present “no efficiency enhancing impact.”
Gamers have additionally been banned from sharing their drug check notifications on social media. Any participant who breaks the ban might be fined as much as $15,000.
CBS Sports activities NFL insider Jonathan Jones broke the information on these modifications, and also you can learn his full story on the state of affairs right here.
6. Further factors: Ravens droop Diontae Johnson
It has been a busy week within the NFL, and because it’s practically inconceivable to maintain observe of the whole lot that occurred, I went forward and put collectively a roundup for you.
- Diontae Johnson hit with one-game suspension. The Ravens’ determination to commerce for Diontae Johnson is not precisely paying off thus far. For the reason that Oct. 29 commerce, Johnson solely has one reception and to make issues worse, he was suspended for one sport by the Ravens for conduct detrimental to the crew. Apparently, Johnson refused to enter the sport when the Ravens had been taking part in the Eagles on Sunday. You can learn extra about this loopy state of affairs right here.
- Bengals getting a brand new kicker. The Bengals have positioned Evan McPherson on injured reserve, which suggests he’ll be lacking not less than their subsequent 4 video games. With McPherson out, the Bengals shall be turning to former Browns kicker Cade York for his or her Monday evening sport in opposition to the Cowboys.
- Giants sticking with Drew Lock in Week 14. For the second straight week, Lock would be the beginning QB for the Giants. Lock obtained his first begin of the 12 months on Thanksgiving when he threw for simply 178 yards in a loss to the Cowboys. This week, he’ll get to face a Saints that has held its final three opponents to only 17.3 factors per sport.
- Chiefs persist with their new kicker. The Chiefs have used three kickers over the previous 4 video games, however they will not be making a change this week. Matthew Wright kicked in Week 13 and he’ll be returning in Week 14. Harrison Butker began the season because the kicker, however he is now on injured reserve. He was changed by Spencer Shrader, who kicked in two video games for Kansas Metropolis, however he was positioned on IR this week, which suggests it would probably be Wright’s job till Butker will get again.
