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Estimated studying time: 7 minutes
Fantasy and DFS fans, bettors and analysts typically depend on a wide selection of statistics and fashions to achieve a aggressive edge. These vary from fundamental field rating stats to superior metrics obtainable in PFF’s Premium Stats 2.0 and fashions like Josh Hermsmeyer‘s Purchase Low mannequin and WOPR (Weighted Alternative Ranking).
There may be at all times room for brand new insights and analyses to assist bettors and fantasy managers refine their methods. That’s why I’ve developed a brand new metric that gives a number of benefits over WOPR. Click on right here for an in-depth rationalization of the mannequin, my course of and its benefits.
Week 13 Recap
General, the mannequin had a slight down week. There have been no “explosion” performs, however the mannequin nonetheless recognized 4 top-30 extensive receivers. Tre Tucker was the one actual highlight in its identification.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATES: WEEK 14
As a fast reminder of how regression-to-the-mean fashions work, I predict a participant’s FPpG primarily based on their three-week PWOPR (defined extra right here).
PWOPR is rather more secure than FPpG and is a stronger indicator of future efficiency. To determine potential breakout candidates, I calculate the residual by subtracting the participant’s predicted FPpG from their precise FPpG. Gamers with PWOPR and a residual of -3 or decrease seem on this listing. Gamers will proceed to seem till one of many following happens:
- They fulfill their PWOPR potential with an enormous sport
- Their PWOPR decreases to match their anticipated FPpG
Groups on bye in Week 14: Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, Washington Commanders, Baltimore Ravens, Houston Texans
Christian Watson: Watson has a really perfect matchup in opposition to the Lions, who’ve struggled mightily in single protection during the last month. Detroit has allowed probably the most single-coverage alternatives for opposing extensive receivers throughout that span, and the Lions rank bottom-five in fast strain fee, which may give Jordan Love the time wanted to focus on Watson downfield.
Detroit additionally permits the best common goal depth into protection over the previous month, setting the stage for Watson to see a number of deep alternatives.
Malik Nabers: Whereas the Saints have struggled not too long ago, posting the Tenth-worst staff PFF protection grade over the previous month and the third-worst fast strain fee within the league, the Giants’ unsettled quarterback state of affairs considerably dampens expectations for Nabers. With out secure play beneath heart, it’s powerful to anticipate a breakout efficiency.
Garrett Wilson: Wilson and the Jets face a troublesome matchup in opposition to the Dolphins in Week 14. Miami hardly ever permits single-coverage conditions and has operated with a top-10 MOFO (middle-of-the-field open) fee within the NFL over the previous month. Whereas their sixth-worst PFF protection grade in that span hints at some weaknesses, they compensate by allowing the bottom common depth of goal (aDoT) within the league. This defensive setup may restrict Wilson’s alternatives for explosive performs, making it a troublesome spot for an enormous efficiency.
D.Ok. Metcalf: Metcalf faces a difficult matchup in opposition to the Cardinals in Week 14. Arizona’s protection has leaned closely on a MOFO scheme, working it on the third-highest fee within the NFL over the previous month. They’ve additionally allowed the fourth-fewest single-coverage alternatives whereas incomes the fourth-best staff PFF protection grade in that span. This disciplined defensive strategy may restrict the conditions the place Metcalf thrives, making it a troublesome take a look at for the star wideout.
Rome Odunze: Bears rookie Rome Odunze faces a troublesome matchup in opposition to the 49ers in Week 14. Over the past month, San Francisco’s protection has allowed the fifth-fewest single-coverage alternatives whereas working the second-highest MOFC fee within the NFL. Whereas their fast strain fee ranks second-worst, they’ve permitted an 8.0-yard common depth of goal (aDoT) throughout that span—effectively under Odunze’s 14.2-yard aDoT. This misalignment in types may restrict Odunze’s alternatives for giant performs.
Darnell Mooney: Mooney faces the Vikings in Week 14, a staff working the fourth-highest MOFO fee within the NFL. Whereas their protection protection is middling, rating fifteenth, they excel at producing fast strain, rating fifth within the league.
Quentin Johnston/Josh Palmer: Each Chargers receivers stay on the radar after a lackluster Week 13 efficiency from the LA offense. In a possible Sunday Night time Soccer showdown in opposition to the Chiefs, the matchup presents intriguing dynamics. Kansas Metropolis employs the sixth-highest MOFO fee but permits the fifth-most single-coverage alternatives. This bodes significantly effectively for Joshua Palmer, who experiences a ten% goal share increase in single-coverage conditions.
Whereas the Chiefs typically restrict the common goal depth (aDoT) to 7.7 yards, the Chargers thrive on deep passes, boasting a ten.4-yard aDoT — the second-highest within the league. Including to the intrigue, Kansas Metropolis struggles in protection on passes concentrating on gamers seven or extra yards downfield, rating because the sixth-worst PFF protection protection in these conditions. This might result in a bounce-back efficiency for each receivers.
Remaining Ideas
As at all times, not each participant on this listing will ship, however a number of are well-positioned to exceed their latest common PPR, with a couple of doubtlessly delivering explosive performances. Thanks for studying!
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