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Estimated studying time: 7 minutes
Fantasy and DFS fanatics, bettors and analysts usually depend on a big selection of statistics and fashions to realize a aggressive edge. These vary from primary field rating stats to superior metrics out there in PFF’s Premium Stats 2.0 and fashions like Josh Hermsmeyer‘s Purchase Low mannequin and WOPR (Weighted Alternative Ranking).
There may be at all times room for brand spanking new insights and analyses to assist bettors and fantasy managers refine their methods. That’s why I’ve developed a brand new metric that gives a number of benefits over WOPR. Click on right here for an in-depth rationalization of the mannequin, my course of and its benefits.
Week 14 Recap
The mannequin had a powerful bounce-back efficiency in Week 14 after a slight dip in Week 13. It appropriately recognized six top-26 extensive receivers out of 10 gamers evaluated. In whole, 60% of the mannequin’s picks completed at or higher than WR26.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATES: WEEK 15
As a fast reminder of how regression-to-the-mean fashions work, I predict a participant’s FPpG primarily based on their three-week PWOPR (defined extra right here).
PWOPR is way more steady than FPpG and is a stronger indicator of future efficiency. To determine potential breakout candidates, I calculate the residual by subtracting the participant’s predicted FPpG from their precise FPpG. Gamers with PWOPR and a residual of -3 or decrease seem on this record. Gamers will proceed to seem till one of many following happens:
- They fulfill their PWOPR potential with a giant sport
- Their PWOPR decreases to match their anticipated FPpG
A.J. Brown: Brown impressed the underlying play-by-play mannequin that drives the Route-Primarily based Heroes sport mannequin, and he faces an intriguing matchup towards the Steelers. Since Week 9, Pittsburgh has the third-worst protection unit within the NFL whereas deploying the very best middle-of-the-field-closed (MOFC) charge. Nonetheless, the Steelers additionally rank first in PFF’s workforce pass-rush grade and sixth in fast stress charge. If Jalen Hurts and the Eagles’ offensive line can deal with the stress, this could possibly be a breakout sport for Brown.
Garrett Wilson: Wilson delivered a stable efficiency in Week 14 after showing on the mannequin, however in comparison with his PWOPR, there’s nonetheless room for enchancment. He has a terrific alternative in Week 15 towards the Jaguars. Jacksonville permits one of many highest charges of single protection within the NFL, ranks sixteenth in protection and generates the league’s worst fast stress charge (10.3%).
D.Okay. Metcalf: Metcalf had a lackluster Week 14 after showing within the mannequin, and he may face extra difficulties towards the Packers in Week 15. Inexperienced Bay boasts the NFL’s seventh-best workforce protection grade and makes use of middle-of-the-field-open (MOFO) protection on the Eleventh-highest charge within the league. The Packers additionally enable single protection on the lowest charge within the NFL, which may restrict Metcalf’s possibilities for giant performs.
DeVonta Smith: Smith has the identical matchup as Brown, with double the necessity for optimistic regression. This could possibly be a terrific signal for a basic optimistic passing regression for the Eagles, or possibly an indication that Jalen Hurts is struggling to get the ball to his elite receiving corps.
Calvin Ridley: Ridley has been a favourite of the mannequin in 2024. Final week, he noticed 12 targets however solely managed a middling efficiency from his seven receptions. In Week 15, he faces the Bengals, who current an honest matchup with the sixth-worst PFF workforce protection grade. Nonetheless, Cincinnati runs middle-of-the-field-open (MOFO) protection on the second-highest charge within the league, which frequently limits manufacturing for elite extensive receivers.
Xavier Legette: Legette was poised for a giant sport final week, however a crucial drop late within the sport possible price him a landing. He seems within the mannequin once more this week and faces the Cowboys, who run a mixture of middle-of-the-field-open (MOFO) and middle-of-the-field-closed (MOFC) coverages. Dallas has the ninth-worst workforce protection grade, in keeping with PFF, however they generate the second-most fast stress within the NFL. This might pose a problem for Bryce Younger and restrict Legette’s alternatives.
Josh Palmer/Quentin Johnston: Each Chargers receivers delivered stable performances on Sunday Night time Soccer, however after Justin Herbert missed Palmer on a possible 60-plus-yard landing and made just a few different misreads, they’re again within the mannequin this week. They face an thrilling matchup towards the Bucs, who deploy middle-of-the-field-closed (MOFC) protection on the sixth-highest charge, boast the ninth-best PFF protection grade and generate essentially the most fast stress within the NFL.
Christian Watson/Dontayvion Wicks: The younger Packers duo faces the Seahawks, who use middle-of-the-field-open (MOFO) protection on the highest charge within the NFL and have the third-best PFF workforce protection grade. Neither issue favors an elite efficiency, however the Seahawks’ tendency to cross continuously may create extra alternatives for each offenses on this matchup.
Deebo Samuel: Samuel faces the Rams, a workforce that ranks center of the pack in most defensive classes. Nonetheless, Los Angeles has the third-worst workforce tackling grade, a weak point Samuel — a YAC specialist — is well-equipped to use.
Final week’s heroes who had been on bye: Zay Flowers, Tank Dell and Noah Brown.
As at all times, not each participant on this record will ship, however a number of are well-positioned to exceed their current common PPR, with just a few probably delivering explosive performances. Thanks for studying!
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