Fantasy and DFS fans, bettors and analysts typically depend on a big selection of statistics and fashions to realize a aggressive edge. These vary from fundamental field rating stats to superior metrics obtainable in PFF’s Premium Stats 2.0 and fashions like Josh Hermsmeyer‘s Purchase Low mannequin and WOPR (Weighted Alternative Score).
There’s at all times room for brand spanking new insights and analyses to assist bettors and fantasy managers refine their methods. That’s why I’ve developed a brand new metric that gives a number of benefits over WOPR. Click on right here for an in-depth rationalization of the mannequin, my course of and its benefits.
Week 15 Recap
A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith each had glorious video games this previous week — spectacular calls by the mannequin. General, the mannequin had a little bit of a down week, however with two top-10 identifications, the outcomes have been nonetheless optimistic.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATES: WEEK 16
As a fast reminder of how regression-to-the-mean fashions work, I predict a participant’s FPpG based mostly on their three-week PWOPR (defined extra right here).
PWOPR is far more steady than FPpG and is a stronger indicator of future efficiency. To establish potential breakout candidates, I calculate the residual by subtracting the participant’s predicted FPpG from their precise FPpG. Gamers with PWOPR and a residual of -3 or decrease seem on this listing. Gamers will proceed to seem till one of many following happens:
- They fulfill their PWOPR potential with an enormous recreation
- Their PWOPR decreases to match their anticipated FPpG
A.J. Brown: Brown reveals up on the listing once more after a strong efficiency in Week 15. Brown’s PWOPR ranks fifth amongst all NFL gamers. Gamers with a PWOPR as excessive as his typically rating round 18 PPR factors per recreation, and Brown has been averaging lower than that over the previous three weeks (14.97). He lands a matchup versus the Commanders, who run a top-seven middle-of-field-closed (MOFC) price within the NFL, which might permit for elite large receiver performances. The Commanders even have the eighth-worst PFF workforce protection grade over the previous month. That is an elite matchup for Brown to have an enormous efficiency.
DK Metcalf: Metcalf has a reasonably common large receiver matchup this week. The Vikings personal the seventh-highest middle-of-field-open (MOFO) price, a glance that always suppresses outdoors large receivers. The Vikings have a middling protection and go rush, which is a profit for Metcalf, however he has solely the Seahawks’ fourth-best PFF grade towards MOFO coverages. That is an OK matchup for Metcalf, but it surely’s nothing to jot down house about.
Zay Flowers: Rashod Bateman overshadowed Flowers final week, however this week he faces the Steelers, who’ve the third-highest MOFC price within the NFL and the fifth-worst workforce protection unit by PFF grade. As we noticed final week with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, this can be a improbable spot for Ravens large receivers, so long as Baltimore can mitigate the Steelers’ fast strain (fifth greatest within the NFL). In distinction to DK Metcalf, Flowers owns the Ravens’ greatest PFF grade versus MOFC coverages, so this can be a smash spot for him.
Romeo Doubs/Christian Watson: This duo lands the Saints, who run MOFO on the ninth-highest price within the NFL, with the fourth-worst fast strain price and a middling workforce PFF protection grade (thirteenth worst). Each Doubs and Watson lead the Packers in first-read goal share and face a workforce that enables the ninth-most targets to first reads. Your entire Packers passing unit could possibly be in for day.
Calvin Ridley: Ridley is falling right into a manufacturing hunch, even regardless of seeing 12 targets two weeks in the past. This week, he lands a reasonably strong matchup versus the Colts, who run MOFC coverages on the sixth-highest price within the NFL whereas having the seventh-worst fast strain price however the eighth-best workforce protection unit by PFF grade. Ridley has a strong PFF grade versus MOFC protection (73.4) and leads the Titans in targets, by far, in nearly each scenario. That is an general respectable matchup for Ridley.
Kayshon Boutte: Boutte reveals up on a “regression to the imply” listing like this persistently. He’s operating routes at a excessive price (82%-plus since Week 8) and even getting strong targets (5.57 per recreation since Week 8). The Payments run a strong mixture of MOFO and MOFC coverages and have a median fast strain price, however they personal the fourth-worst workforce protection grade. The Patriots will probably be trailing the complete recreation, which might incite extra passing for Drake Maye towards a foul unit. In concept, this can be a great place for Boutte to have a breakout recreation.
Cooper Kupp: Kupp lands the Jets, who run MOFC coverages on the Tenth-highest price, with the third-worst PFF workforce protection grade. The largest fear about Kupp having an explosive recreation is Puka Nacua doing simply the identical.
Tank Dell: The second-year large receiver will get a strong matchup versus the Chiefs, who permit the third-most single protection conditions. Dell, in the meantime, will get the most important enhance in targets from single protection conditions amongst Texans receivers. One challenge for Dell could possibly be that the Chiefs run MOFO coverages at one of many highest charges within the NFL, and Dell owns a lackluster 55.7 PFF grade versus MOFO.
Deebo Samuel: Samuel has been on the listing for some time now and simply can’t appear to interrupt out. This week. He will get to play the Dolphins, who run MOFO coverages on the fifth-highest price within the NFL, have a middling fast strain price and personal the seventh-worst workforce PFF protection grade. Samuel has the third-best PFF grade versus MOFO, albeit far behind that of teammates George Kittle (90.2) and Jauan Jennings (89.3). The Dolphins do usually permit a low common goal depth (6.5 yards, third lowest), and Samuel has the 49ers‘ lowest common goal depth versus MOFO protection (5.6). The Dolphins additionally lead the NFL in missed tackles. This could possibly be an incredible matchup if the 49ers have a dink-and-dunk recreation plan.
As at all times, not each participant on this listing will ship, however a number of are well-positioned to exceed their latest common PPR, with a number of probably delivering explosive performances.
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