Fantasy and DFS fans, bettors and analysts typically depend on a wide selection of statistics and fashions to realize a aggressive edge. These vary from fundamental field rating stats to superior metrics out there in PFF’s Premium Stats 2.0 and fashions like Josh Hermsmeyer‘s Purchase Low mannequin and WOPR (Weighted Alternative Score).
There’s at all times room for brand new insights and analyses to assist bettors and fantasy managers refine their methods. That’s why I’ve developed a brand new metric that provides a number of benefits over WOPR. Click on right here for an in-depth clarification of the mannequin, my course of and its benefits.
Week 16 Recap
Week 16 proved to be one of many mannequin’s most profitable weeks. It precisely recognized 4 WR1s (high 12) and 7 WR2s (high 24), showcasing its potential to pinpoint high-performing large receivers.
Deebo Samuel, who has been a constant presence on the mannequin’s radar, lastly delivered a breakout efficiency. Equally, Kayshon Boutte, one other common spotlight, lived as much as his potential with a standout exhibiting.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATES: WEEK 17
As a fast reminder of how regression-to-the-mean fashions work, I predict a participant’s FPpG based mostly on their three-week PWOPR (defined extra right here).
PWOPR is rather more secure than FPpG and is a stronger indicator of future efficiency. To determine potential breakout candidates, I calculate the residual by subtracting the participant’s predicted FPpG from their precise FPpG. Gamers with an excellent PWOPR and a residual of -3 or decrease seem on this checklist. Gamers will proceed to look till one of many following happens:
- They fulfill their PWOPR potential with a giant sport
- Their PWOPR decreases to match their anticipated FPpG
Courtland Sutton faces a troublesome matchup towards the Bengals, who run the NFL’s second-highest charge of middle-of-the-field-open (MOFO) protection and the fourth-highest charge of exhibiting MOFO earlier than sticking with it. Sutton’s manufacturing has struggled towards such appears, along with his PFF grade dropping to 60.5 and his targets per route run reducing to 18.4%. This matchup might considerably restrict Sutton’s output in fantasy championship weekend.
Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker, constant standouts on the PWOPR mannequin, face the Saints, who run the NFL’s Tenth-highest charge of MOFO. Nevertheless, the Saints’ splits between MOFO and middle-of-the-field-closed (MOFC) protection aren’t drastic. Regardless of a bottom-10 PFF protection grade, the Saints boast the league’s sixth-best cross rush grade over the previous month and permit single protection at a mean charge. This matchup is pretty impartial for each Meyers and Tucker.
Jalen Coker, coping with lingering accidents, faces the Buccaneers after a quiet Week 16. Tampa runs the NFL’s highest charge of MOFC and the sixth-highest charge of exhibiting MOFC earlier than sticking with it. Coker has excelled towards these appears, incomes a 77.7 PFF receiving grade since Week 8. Tampa additionally brings the league’s second-highest blitz charge, however Coker’s grade stays constant at 69.1 towards such strain. This units up a positive matchup for Coker.
Marvin Harrison Jr. has a mean matchup towards the Rams, who deploy MOFO and MOFC protection at typical charges and rank fifteenth in PFF crew protection grade. Whereas the Rams don’t current a big edge or drawback, Harrison’s expertise and reliability make him a robust play regardless of the impartial circumstances.
Michael Pittman Jr. matches up towards the Giants, who run the NFL’s seventh-highest charge of MOFC. Pittman’s PFF grade and THREAT stay regular throughout all conditions, however the Giants’ Thirty first-ranked PFF crew protection grade supplies a transparent weak point for the Colts to use. Pittman has a robust alternative for a productive outing on this matchup.
Joshua Palmer, a frequent point out in each this and the “Coach, I Was Open” fashions, faces the Patriots, who run the NFL’s eighth-highest charge of exhibiting and taking part in MOFC. Palmer’s PFF grade improves from 68.0 to 71.1 in MOFC conditions, whereas his THREAT will increase from 16.5% to 18.8%. Though the Patriots rank seventh in crew protection grade over the previous month, Palmer’s situational enchancment makes him a strong possibility for fantasy championship weekend.
As at all times, not each participant on this checklist will ship, however a number of are well-positioned to exceed their latest common PPR, with a couple of probably delivering explosive performances.
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