Fantasy and DFS lovers, bettors and analysts typically depend on a big selection of statistics and fashions to realize a aggressive edge. These vary from fundamental field rating stats to superior metrics accessible in PFF’s Premium Stats 2.0 and fashions like Josh Hermsmeyer‘s Purchase Low mannequin and WOPR (Weighted Alternative Ranking).
There may be all the time room for brand new insights and analyses to assist bettors and fantasy managers refine their methods. That’s why I’ve developed a brand new metric that gives a number of benefits over WOPR. Click on right here for an in-depth clarification of the mannequin, my course of and its benefits.
Week 17 Recap
The mannequin did fairly properly in week 17, with one top-10 identification and 4 top-30 picks. From a easy listing of seven “non-elite” gamers, I’d think about that spectacular. Pittman was particularly an important name by each the mannequin and my write-up on him from final week.
BREAKOUT CANDIDATES: WEEK 18
As a fast reminder of how regression-to-the-mean fashions work, I predict a participant’s FPpG primarily based on their three-week PWOPR (defined extra right here).
PWOPR is far more secure than FPpG and is a stronger indicator of future efficiency. To establish potential breakout candidates, I calculate the residual by subtracting the participant’s predicted FPpG from their precise FPpG. Gamers with an excellent PWOPR and a residual of -3 or decrease seem on this listing. Gamers will proceed to seem till one of many following happens:
- They fulfill their PWOPR potential with a giant recreation
- Their PWOPR decreases to match their anticipated FPpG
Courtland Sutton retains the highest spot on our listing for a second consecutive week. Sutton delivered a stable efficiency final week however fell in need of the mannequin’s predicted alternative. This week, he faces the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs in a pivotal recreation for the Broncos. The Chiefs lead the league in middle-of-the-field-open (MOFO) protection charges and in displaying MOFO earlier than in the end taking part in it. Whereas Bo Nix struggles in opposition to MOFO, rating eighth-worst in PFF grade versus this protection sort, Sutton’s grade additionally dips from 73.4 to 66.2 in MOFO conditions. Regardless of the unfavorable matchup, the potential for the Chiefs to relaxation starters leaves room for Sutton to seek out success.
Marvin Harrison Jr. reappears on the listing with a matchup in opposition to the San Francisco 49ers, who run the second-highest charge of middle-of-the-field-closed (MOFC) protection within the NFL. Not like Sutton, Harrison maintains consistency in MOFC conditions, along with his PFF grade holding regular and his goal charge growing by 2%. This matchup places him in a barely higher place to thrive.
Zay Flowers attracts a recreation in opposition to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who make use of the sixth-highest charge of displaying MOFC after which taking part in MOFC. Flowers excels in these conditions, seeing his PFF grade rise from 84.0 to 90.0 and his goal charge improve by 2%. This matchup might play to his strengths.
Jauan Jennings faces the Arizona Cardinals, who run the eighth-highest MOFO charge within the league. MOFO protection typically suppresses elite vast receiver performances, and with Brock Purdy sidelined, Jennings could face further challenges. Nonetheless, in Kyle Shanahan’s system, these challenges could be mitigated. Jennings’ grade and goal charge stay unchanged in MOFO conditions.
This week may very well be a breakout alternative for Tre Tucker, a participant who has constantly excelled on route-based metrics all through the season. Tucker faces a Los Angeles Chargers protection that ranks within the high 10 in crew PFF protection grade, fewest explosive passing performs allowed, and lowest common depth of goal (aDOT) allowed. If the Chargers relaxation their starters, Tucker’s outlook might enhance considerably.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has a positive matchup in opposition to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a crew that has been a pass-funnel protection this season. Tampa Bay boasts a powerful run protection grade (72.0, sixth-best) however struggles in protection, with a crew PFF grade of simply 51.0 (third-worst). The Buccaneers additionally enable a 9.4 aDOT (seventh-highest), aligning properly with Valdes-Scantling’s strengths as a deep menace.
Brandin Cooks steps into the WR1 position for the Dallas Cowboys with CeeDee Lamb on IR. He faces the Washington Commanders, who make use of common charges of MOFO and MOFC protection and possess a middling crew protection grade of 57. Whereas it is a stable matchup for Cooks, there’s no overwhelming benefit to use.
Demarcus Robinson is about to face the Seattle Seahawks, however with starters resting in preparation for the playoffs, his snap depend is unsure. If he does see important taking part in time, Robinson advantages from Seattle’s excessive MOFO charges, the place his PFF grade improves from 65.0 to 72.0. Nonetheless, his goal charge stays constant.
As all the time, not each participant on this listing will ship, however a number of are well-positioned to exceed their latest common PPR, with just a few probably delivering explosive performances.
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