Welcome to PFF’s betting market replace for Week 2 of bowl season.
On this article, we’ll break down the important thing components influencing line actions in betting markets, serving to you establish whether or not adjustments are an overreaction or an underreaction to those developments. In case you’re unfamiliar with our method, click on right here for a deeper clarification. You possibly can take a look at our evaluation for Spherical 1 of the CFP by clicking right here.
Bowl recreation markets are distinctive, primarily formed by switch portal entries, participant opt-outs, and training adjustments. These components usually result in dramatic swings in spreads and totals, typically even on recreation day, as sudden opt-outs emerge. One important edge throughout bowl season lies in assessing staff motivation—a talent that blends instinct and evaluation.
An evolving pattern to watch is the participation of gamers who’ve entered the switch portal however select to play in bowl video games. This follow, fueled by NIL alternatives and revenue-sharing developments, may turn into extra prevalent within the years forward.
RELIAQUEST BOWL: ALABAMA vs MICHIGAN
|
Opener |
Present Line |
|
|
Unfold |
ALA -11 |
ALA -13.5 |
|
Complete |
44 |
42.5 |
Unfold: The preliminary transfer dropped the unfold to 10 shortly after opening, however it has since climbed to 13.5 with information that the majority of Alabama’s potential opt-outs, together with QB Jalen Milroe, are anticipated to play. The road has but to succeed in 14, and it’s unlikely we’ll see that quantity seem.
Complete: The whole oscillated between 43 and 44 for weeks earlier than Circa dropped it to 42.5 over the weekend. Most books are nonetheless holding at 43.5, although others could observe swimsuit quickly.
Purchase/Promote: Even after vital motion, I’m snug backing Alabama at -13.5.
Present Portal Gamers (min. 100 snaps)
TONY THE TIGER SUN BOWL: LOUISVILLE vs WASHINGTON
|
Opener |
Present Line |
|
|
Unfold |
LOU -6 |
LOU -2 |
|
Complete |
53 |
49 |
Unfold: Vital motion towards Washington has shifted this line beneath a area aim, primarily resulting from stories that Louisville QB Tyler Shough will sit out alongside a number of different key contributors. Washington seems to be nearing full participation. The road sits at a consensus of two, although some books nonetheless present 2.5.
Complete: The whole has steadily dropped by 4 factors since opening, with 49.5 remaining broadly accessible.
Present Portal Gamers (min. 100 snaps)
CHEEZ-IT CITRUS BOWL: SOUTH CAROLINA vs ILLINOIS
|
Opener |
Present Line |
|
|
Unfold |
SC -10.5 |
SC -10 |
|
Complete |
48 |
49 |
Unfold: The road has fluctuated barely, dipping beneath 10 at instances earlier than climbing to 11 this previous weekend. It has since settled again at 10, although 10.5s are nonetheless accessible. Each groups are anticipated to be close to full energy for this Citrus Bowl matchup.
Complete: After remaining regular at 48 for 2 weeks, the full has seen current motion, bouncing between 49 and 50 over the previous week.
Present Portal Gamers (min. 100 snaps)
KINDER’S TEXAS BOWL: BAYLOR vs LSU
|
Opener |
Present Line |
|
|
Unfold |
LSU -2.5 |
BAY -3.5 |
|
Complete |
61 |
59.5 |
Unfold: LSU’s offensive line exodus has shifted Baylor to the favourite, pushing the road previous a area aim to three.5. Nevertheless, some books nonetheless provide 3s. Moreover, LSU has seen a handful of defensive starters decide to different colleges by the portal.
Complete: After an early 2-point drop, the full has stabilized, with 59.5s persistently accessible throughout the board in current weeks.
Present Portal Gamers (min. 100 snaps)
TAXSLAYER GATOR BOWL: DUKE vs OLE MISS
|
Opener |
Present Line |
|
|
Unfold |
MISS -12.5 |
MISS -17.5 |
|
Complete |
53 |
51 |
Unfold: The road motion stems primarily from Duke QB Maalik Murphy’s switch. Each groups are in any other case anticipated to be close to full energy. The unfold has settled at 17.5 throughout the board, with no motion past that at any ebook.
Complete: The whole has seen a two-point drop, now sitting at 51. Most books provide 51.5, with just a few itemizing 50.5.
Purchase/Promote: I’m shopping for the over at 51. Regardless of Duke’s QB change, Lane Kiffin’s vocal frustration about his staff lacking the playoff suggests he’ll be wanting to make an announcement by lighting up the scoreboard.
Present Portal Gamers (min. 100 snaps)
SERVPRO FIRST RESPONDER BOWL: NORTH TEXAS vs TEXAS STATE
|
Opener |
Present Line |
|
|
Unfold |
TXST -7.5 |
TXST -14 |
|
Complete |
68.5 |
60.5 |
Unfold: The portal has hit North Texas exhausting, pushing the road near 14 in favor of Texas State. Whereas just a few market leaders have moved to 14, most books stay at 13.5, simply shy of the important thing quantity.
Complete: With a depleted roster and a real freshman quarterback main North Texas, the full has dropped over 8 factors. These drastic actions spotlight the volatility of bowl season. Some books nonetheless have this listed at 61 or 61.5.
Present Portal Gamers (min. 100 snaps)
DUKE‘S MAYO BOWL: MINNESOTA vs VIRGINIA TECH
|
Opener |
Present Line |
|
|
Unfold |
MIN -3.5 |
MIN -7.5 |
|
Complete |
43 |
42.5 |
Unfold: Heavy motion on Minnesota has pushed the road previous a landing to 7.5. Whereas there was some buyback on Virginia Tech at 7.5 late final week, the road is now creeping as much as 8 at some books. Uncertainty across the Hokies’ beginning quarterback has added to the motion.
Complete: Minimal adjustments right here, with a web half-point drop to 42.5. The whole briefly dipped to 41.5 however rapidly rebounded.
Present Portal Gamers (min. 100 snaps)
BAHAMAS BOWL: BUFFALO vs. LIBERTY
|
Opener |
Present Line |
|
|
Unfold |
LIB -2.5 |
BUF -2 |
|
Complete |
52 |
50.5 |
Unfold: The switch of QB Kaidon Salter to Colorado has shifted the road in Buffalo’s favor, making them near a field-goal favourite after opening as a slight underdog. The market is cut up between -2 and -2.5.
Complete: After opening at 52, the full has dipped barely and now sits between 50.5 and 51. Additional downward motion is feasible as kickoff approaches.
Purchase/Promote: I’m shopping for Buffalo at -2.5, as the road appears more likely to shut at 3 or increased.
