• Oregon–Penn State: The Geese attempt to maintain their undefeated season alive towards a top-five workforce in Penn State within the Large Ten Championship Recreation.
• Texas–Georgia: The Bulldogs look to take down the Longhorns as soon as once more this season within the SEC Championship Recreation.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full entry to all of our in-season fantasy instruments, together with weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Begin-Sit Optimizer and extra. Enroll now!
Estimated Studying Time: 23 minutes
We’ve lastly made it to convention championship weekend.
On this 12-team playoff period, convention title video games matter greater than ever earlier than. The highest-five convention champions are assured a spot within the School Soccer Playoff with the top-four incomes a first-round bye. Some convention championship video games, just like the Large 12 and Mountain West, are de facto playoff video games themselves.
Listed here are the playoff implications, matchups to observe and predictions for all 9 convention championship video games this weekend.
C-USA Championship: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Jacksonville State Gamecocks (Friday, 7 PM EST on CBS Sports activities Community)
Playoff implications: None
Each Western Kentucky and Jacksonville State sport 8-4 data on the season, in order that they aren’t candidates for the Group of 5 playoff spot it doesn’t matter what occurs elsewhere.
The Hilltoppers are going for his or her first Convention USA title since 2016, again when Jeff Brohm was their head coach. The Gamecocks in the meantime are attempting to win a convention title in simply their second season as an FBS program.
Of their matchup simply final week, Western Kentucky clinched a spot on this sport with a 19-17 victory, that includes a game-winning 50-yard subject purpose with three seconds left.
Matchup to observe when Western Kentucky has the ball (Dalton): Will the Gamecocks be capable to stress Caden Veltkamp?
Jacksonville State enters this sport with the Eleventh-lowest pass-rush grade, eighth-lowest pass-rush win charge and Thirteenth-lowest stress charge within the nation. In the identical vein as groups like Iowa State or Cincinnati, the Hilltoppers run a 3-3-5 protection that closely tilts its schemes towards the talents of its protection gamers.
The distinction between these defenses and the Gamecocks’ unit is that the latter will ship a linebacker on the quarterback fairly often versus dashing simply three. As such, their chief in pressures and sacks is definitely linebacker Reginald Hughes, although his totals in these departments are modest alongside along with his 61.4 pass-rush grade.
Final week, the Gamecocks solely pressured Caden Veltkamp on 21.6% of his dropbacks. They nonetheless solely allowed 19 factors in that sport. He carries only a 49.8 passing grade below stress this season, so if these blitzes get house they can drive him into errors.
Matchup to observe when Jacksonville State has the ball (Max): Can the Gamecocks nonetheless win with its run sport if Tyler Huff is out?
Jacksonville State’s offense is centered round its elite dashing assault. The Gamecocks have run the ball on 62.1% of their performs this season, trailing solely the three army academies. Tre Stewart is eighth amongst FBS operating backs with 924 yards after contact and fifth with 20 dashing touchdowns. Jacksonville State additionally has a top-25 run-blocking grade within the nation (70.5).
A giant a part of the Gamecocks’ floor sport is quarterback Tyler Huff, whose 1,277 dashing yards are second amongst all signal-callers in America. He went down this previous week towards Western Kentucky with an injured ankle and didn’t return. His backup, Logan Smothers, isn’t practically as dynamic as a runner, dashing for 387 yards as a part-time starter final season. Head coach Wealthy Rodriguez stated that Huff’s standing is unsure for Friday night time.
Western Kentucky’s had points with its run protection all season. The Hilltoppers are ninety fifth in yards per try allowed (5.3) and eightieth in EPA per run allowed. Earlier than happening halfway via the third quarter, Huff had 99 dashing yards on 12 carries towards Western Kentucky. If Huff is certainly out, the Hilltoppers ought to have a a lot simpler job defending Stewart.
Predictions
Dalton: Western Kentucky 23, Jacksonville State 16
Dropping Huff is a big blow to a Jacksonville State workforce that has struggled to attain over its previous two video games. Western Kentucky will get a second straight have a look at a protection that Veltkamp needs to be comfy throwing into. I’ll take the Hilltoppers to grind out a win.
Max: Western Kentucky 27, Jacksonville State 24
If Huff is out, it’s laborious to think about what the Gamecocks will do outdoors of counting on Stewart as their workhorse. Western Kentucky wins its second assembly with Jacksonville State in as many weeks and takes house its first Convention USA title in eight years.
Mountain West Championship: No. 20 UNLV Rebels at No. 10 Boise State Broncos (Friday, 8 PM EST on FOX)
Playoff implications: De facto playoff sport
As a result of UNLV and Boise State are the 2 highest-ranked Group of 5 groups, this sport will primarily determine who represents the Group of 5 within the School Soccer Playoff.
If the Broncos win, they’ll additionally possible obtain a first-round bye because it’s nonetheless ranked increased than any Large 12 faculty. Boise State gained on the highway over UNLV again in Week 9 by a 29-24 last rating. The Broncos are attempting to win back-to-back Mountain West championships whereas the Rebels haven’t outright gained a convention title since their Large West championship in 1994.
Matchup to observe when Boise State has the ball (Dalton): Will the Broncos change issues up on first down?
Boise State possesses faculty soccer’s biggest tone-setter on offense in Ashton Jeanty. Having confronted him final 12 months, UNLV knew coming into its first matchup that it couldn’t permit Jeanty to take the sport over.
Previous to that sport in Week 9, Jeanty had been averaging an otherworldly 11.7 yards per stick with it first down. UNLV held him to only 4.6 first-down yards per carry, giving itself an opportunity to make stops on later downs.
Most of the Broncos’ most profitable performs got here from two sources — first-down passing and play motion. Maddux Madsen accomplished eight of his 12 passes on first down that night time, totaling 139 yards. When using play motion, no matter down and distance, he went nine-for-12 for 125 yards and earned an 87.3 passing grade.
As for the primary half, Boise State passes on first down on the Eleventh-lowest charge within the nation. Clearly, they’ve Jeanty to place them in higher late-down conditions, however defenses have been loading the field on first down currently and have had no less than some success in slowing Jeanty down.
Their play-action assault can be key because it already works as soon as towards the Rebels. In reality, UNLV ranks simply fortieth within the FBS in play-action protection grade. Some opponents have been in a position to benefit from the Rebels’ aggression by utilizing play-action fakes with a view to work the ball into the intermediate a part of the sector.
There’ll come a time if and once they have a lead that Boise State will depend on Jeanty to hold the Broncos to the end line. They could be sensible till then to often use him as a decoy to create explosive performs within the passing sport.
Matchup to observe when UNLV has the ball (Max): Can Boise State include Hajj-Malik Williams on the bottom?
Hajj-Malik Williams couldn’t get something going as a passer again when these two groups squared off in October. His 49.1 passing grade was his worst of the season by 13 factors, finishing simply 54.5% of his throws with two big-time throws and two turnover-worthy performs.
Williams was way more harmful as a runner towards the Broncos. He ran for 143 yards and a landing on 14 makes an attempt, which was 15 extra yards than Ashton Jeanty had on 19 fewer makes an attempt. 114 of Williams’ yards got here after contact as he compelled 9 missed tackles alongside the best way. It was his finest dashing efficiency of the season and stored UNLV within the sport regardless of not having a lot of a passing sport to depend on.
Boise State’s secondary (thirty eighth in protection grade) has been the power of its protection however it’s had points with its run protection (77th) and tackling (132nd) all season. Cell quarterbacks particularly have burned the Broncos, as 5 totally different signal-callers have rushed for no less than 50 yards on them this season.
If Boise State can include Williams on the bottom and drive him to win as a dropback passer, the Broncos have an amazing probability of successful the Mountain West and clinching a playoff spot.
Predictions
Dalton: UNLV 27, Boise State 24
These two groups are very evenly matched, and it’s robust to beat an opponent twice in a single season. UNLV rides Jai’Den Thomas, Hajj-Malik Williams, and its scorching operating sport to stun the Broncos on the highway.
Max: Boise State 31, UNLV 28
Jeanty makes one final case to Heisman voters who’re on the fence and the Broncos take down the Rebels within the Mountain West Championship Recreation in back-to-back years. Boise State clinches a playoff spot and can greater than possible obtain a first-round bye.
American Athletic Championship: Tulane Inexperienced Wave at No. 24 Military Black Knights (Friday, 8 PM EST on ABC)
Playoff implications: Seemingly none
Since each Boise State and UNLV are ranked above Military, it’s extremely unlikely that the Group of 5 playoff spot exits the Mountain West.
The Inexperienced Wave are going for his or her second AAC title in three years whereas the Black Knights are going for his or her first convention title in program historical past. The 2 didn’t play one another through the common season.
Matchup to observe when Military has the ball (Dalton): Which Tulane run protection will present up?
There’s a clear line of demarcation with regard to Tulane’s success this 12 months — its run protection. The Inexperienced Wave has allowed 200 dashing yards in a sport on 4 events this season. They misplaced three of these video games whereas the fourth was a one-score victory over Louisiana.
Of their different eight victories, they allowed simply over 102 dashing yards per sport and gained by a median of 34 factors. They’ve additionally gained each sport wherein they’ve graded above 66.0 in run protection. Included in that set of information is a shutout victory over Navy wherein they allowed simply 114 yards throughout 33 carries.
Related success will set them up for victory over Military, however the Black Knights boast the very best run-blocking grade within the nation and quarterback Bryson Day by day, who has rushed for 1,351 yards and 25 touchdowns this season. Military is arguably the most effective workforce within the nation at breaking include on run performs, not solely due to the triple possibility however due to its number of formations and run schemes.
Matchup to observe when Tulane has the ball (Max): Will Tulane dominate on the line of scrimmage?
Tulane has the nation’s fourth-highest-graded offense this season and sarcastically solely trails Military amongst Group of 5 faculties. A serious purpose for that’s that the Inexperienced Wave don’t have an actual weak spot offensively. They’re among the many high 35 FBS groups in each grading class: passing, dashing, receiving, move blocking and run blocking.
When trying on the Black Knights’ protection, they’re stable within the secondary (fortieth in protection grade) however have main points defending the run (91st) and dashing the passer (108th). Military is one hundred and tenth in dashing yards earlier than contact allowed (2.1) and 114th in stress charge (26.7%) this season.
That could possibly be a significant difficulty towards the Inexperienced Wave. Makhi Hughes is sixth amongst FBS operating backs with 955 yards after contact whereas Tulane’s offensive line is the ninth-highest-graded in all of faculty soccer.
Predictions
Dalton: Tulane 23, Military 17
In a sport more likely to move by shortly involving two groups that run the ball as a lot as any within the nation, Tulane’s offensive stability and skilled protection get the job executed for an AAC title victory.
Each dashing assaults discover success on this sport, however Darian Mensah and the Inexperienced Wave’s proficient group of receivers make sufficient performs to place Tulane excessive.
Large 12 Championship: No. 15 Arizona State Solar Devils vs. No. 16 Iowa State Cyclones (12 PM EST on ABC)
Playoff implications: De facto playoff sport
The Large 12 is all however assured to solely ship one workforce to the School Soccer Playoff, making its convention championship sport a win-and-in situation for each Arizona State and Iowa State. If Clemson beats SMU, the winner of the Large 12 must also anticipate a first-round bye.
The Solar Devils are raging scorching, using a five-game win streak heading into Saturday whereas the Cyclones are on a three-game heater of their very own. The 2 didn’t face off through the common season. Arizona State is in its first 12 months as a member of the Large 12 and hasn’t gained a convention championship since 2007. Iowa State’s final convention title came visiting a century in the past in 1912.
Matchup to observe when Iowa State has the ball (Dalton): Can Rocco Becht maintain getting away with errors?
Throughout his first six video games of the season, Rocco Becht appeared as if he was enhancing upon final 12 months’s stable redshirt freshman marketing campaign sufficient that he may lead the Cyclones into Large 12 rivalry. Whereas they’ve made the Large 12 title sport, they’ve executed so partially regardless of Becht’s errors.
| Metric | First 6 video games | Final 6 video games |
| Passing Grade | 77.7 | 59.2 |
| Large Time Throws | 8 | 7 |
| Turnover worthy performs | 4 | 14 |
| Yards per try | 9.0 | 6.8 |
Among the many 69 Energy 4 quarterbacks who’ve taken no less than 100 dropbacks since Week 8, Becht’s 59.2 passing grade ranks 57th, and he has dedicated probably the most turnover-worthy performs.
Becht has a behavior of placing the ball in peril on throws comparatively near the road of scrimmage. These are the kinds of throws that beneath defenders can return for touchdowns and are usually the lowest-graded throws on PFF’s grading scale.
Becht has dedicated 11 turnover-worthy performs this season on passes thrown below 10 yards. No different quarterback has dedicated greater than seven. His 53.8 passing grade on such throws ranks solely forward of Wisconsin’s Braedyn Locke amongst Energy 4 passers with no less than 100 makes an attempt.
Becht’s ball safety can be essential towards an Arizona State protection that has reeled in 11 interceptions since Week 7, tied with three different groups for the Energy 4 lead in that span.
Matchup to observe when Arizona State has the ball (Max): Can the Solar Devils trip Cam Skattebo to victory?
Arizona State’s offense is centered round three gamers: operating again Cam Skattebo, quarterback Sam Leavitt and extensive receiver Jordyn Tyson. All three have earned PFF grades above 84.0 this season. The subsequent-closest Solar Satan, offensive sort out Max Iheanachor, has only a 70.6 mark.
So it’s secure to say that Arizona State acquired devastating information this week when it was introduced that Tyson is out indefinitely with a shoulder harm. He was focused on 32.1% of his routes this 12 months, fifth amongst all Energy 4 gamers. Tyson’s 1,104 receiving yards are 636 greater than the next-closest Solar Satan, which occurs to be Skattebo.
Talking of, Arizona State will possible depend on its celebrity operating again greater than ever earlier than on this sport with Tyson out. Skattebo is sixth amongst FBS backs this 12 months with 970 yards after contact whereas inserting fourth with 468 receiving yards.
Whereas Iowa State’s secondary has been excellent this season (Eleventh in protection grade), the Cyclones have had important points up entrance on protection. Their 67.7 run-defense grade is among the many 15 worst in faculty soccer, permitting 5.6 yards per carry (5.6). Iowa State’s finest run defender, linebacker Caleb Bacon, hasn’t performed since Week 1 on account of leg surgical procedure.
If the Cyclones could make somebody apart from Skattebo beat them, they’ve an amazing probability at successful their first Large 12 championship and securing a School Soccer Playoff berth.
Predictions
Dalton: Arizona State 31, Iowa State 27
The Jordyn Tyson loss could possibly be the distinction if Arizona State loses, however this workforce is constructed round Cam Skattebo’s infectious bodily angle. The Solar Devils pull off a good victory so as to add a playoff berth to Kenny Dillingham’s masterclass this season.
Max: Arizona State 27, Iowa State 24
Skattebo has been the engine for the Solar Devils’ offense all season. He’ll possible should be your complete automobile on this sport with Tyson out. Fortunately for Arizona State, Iowa State has had important issues stopping the run all 12 months. That coupled with Rocco Becht’s latest chilly streak makes me wish to trip with the Solar Devils to win the Large 12 throughout their first 12 months within the convention.
MAC Championship: Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Ohio Bobcats (12 PM EST on ESPN)
Playoff implications: None
Neither Miami (8-4) nor Ohio (9-3) are playoff candidates heading into Detroit.
The RedHawks are going for his or her second-straight MAC championship whereas the Bobcats haven’t gained the convention in 56 years. Miami received the higher of Ohio of their earlier assembly again in October, successful by a 30-20 last rating.
Matchup to observe when Ohio has the ball (Dalton): Can the Bobcats discover dashing lanes for Parker Navarro?
Since Week 5, Ohio quarterback Parker Navarro ranks among the many high 5 quarterbacks in dashing yards, yards per carry, and dashing touchdowns. Navarro is an efficient scrambler, however he has created most of his explosive runs by way of designed carries. Whether or not it’s via a learn possibility, quarterback draw, or energy scheme, Navarro has develop into the centerpiece of the Bobcats’ run sport down the stretch.
The Redhawks boast a wonderful run protection that’s the league’s highest-graded since they began convention play in Week 5. Led by excellent linebackers Matt Salopek and Ty Clever, Miami truly held Navarro to his second-lowest dashing complete of the season at simply 39 yards.
The Bobcats have been unable to get their run sport entering into two straight matchups towards Miami. If that’s the case for a 3rd time, they’re unlikely to search out themselves hoisting a MAC Championship trophy.
Matchup to observe when Miami (OH) has the ball (Max): Will Ohio’s tackling issues persist?
Ohio had main points bringing down Miami’s operating backs when these two met again in Week 8. Keyon Mozee ran for 111 yards towards the Bobcats, all of which got here after contact. Dylan Downing compelled three missed tackles on his seven makes an attempt within the sport as effectively. In complete, the RedHawks had 92.7% of their dashing yards come after contact in that sport.
The Bobcats’ tackling difficulty wasn’t unique to only that sport both. Ohio’s missed 17% of its sort out makes an attempt this 12 months, the Sixteenth-highest charge in America. Mix that with the truth that Miami’s run-blocking grade is among the many 15 finest in faculty soccer, and it could possibly be one other lengthy day for the Bobcats’ run protection in the event that they don’t wrap up.
Predictions
Dalton: Miami (OH) 31, Ohio 21
For 2 seasons, Miami has confirmed that it’s the finest workforce within the MAC. If the RedHawks cease the run as they’ve within the final two conferences with Ohio and Brett Gabbert continues to play clear soccer, they’ll win their second consecutive convention championship.
This sport could possibly be fairly low-scoring. In a sport the place each groups will possible attempt to closely set up the run, I just like the RedHawks’ protection to give you extra stops.
SEC Championship: No. 2 Texas Longhorns vs. No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs (4 PM EST on ABC)
Playoff implications: Each are in, winner will get a first-round bye
Each Texas (11-1) and Georgia (10-2) are primarily assured no less than an at-large spot within the School Soccer Playoff. This sport will decide which faculty will get to skip the primary spherical of the playoffs.
The Bulldogs have been the one workforce who’s taken down the Longhorns this season, successful 30-15 again in Week 8. Georgia is making an attempt to win its second SEC title in three years whereas Texas is making an attempt to win in its first 12 months as a member.
Matchup to observe when Georgia has the ball (Dalton): How aggressive is Texas prepared to be towards Georgia’s passing assault?
Texas possesses arguably the most effective protection within the nation. The Longhorns lead the FBS in workforce protection grade primarily on account of a first-place rating in protection grade and a fifth-ranked move rush grade. Regardless of their immense quantity of expertise, the Longhorns not often get aggressive on protection.
Texas ranks inside the underside 20 within the nation by way of move blitz charge and press protection charge. The Longhorns run a really low share of man protection in addition to they depend on the execution of their primary defensive rules with a view to succeed.
They could be sensible to vary these tendencies towards the Bulldogs, who’ve struggled to search out constant success when opponents get extra aggressive on protection. Georgia ranks 84th within the nation in receiving grade versus man protection. Whereas Carson Beck owns a stable 76.0 passing grade towards man protection, a lot of that manufacturing is rooted in massive video games towards Auburn and Mississippi State.
Beck’s efficiency additionally considerably dips when he’s blitzed. His 69.3 passing grade towards the blitz is a comparatively common mark itself however can also be closely weighted towards these two video games towards lesser opponents. When defenses have sped up Beck and challenged their receivers to separate shortly, the Bulldogs have gone via stretches of ineffectiveness on offense.
Matchup to observe when Texas has the ball (Max): Will Kirby Sensible have Quinn Ewers in a blender once more?
Merely put, Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers had the worst sport of his profession towards Georgia again in October. His 29.9 PFF grade towards the Bulldogs was the worst of his profession by over 18 factors. Ewers’ seven turnover-worthy performs that night time are tied for probably the most in a sport by an FBS signal-caller over the past 5 seasons. His pocket presence was additionally a multitude, as 4 of his 5 sacks taken in that sport have been charted as his fault.
A efficiency like that towards a Kirby Sensible-coached protection normally means the quarterback didn’t deal with his aggressive defensive mentality very effectively. Georgia blitzes on the sixth-highest charge in America this season (50.5%) however in that sport, the Bulldogs solely blitzed on 32.2% of their snaps. As an alternative, Georgia confused Ewers by disguising its coverages way over ordinary. The Bulldogs disguised their protection 38.7% of the time in that sport regardless of solely doing so on 24.2% of their different video games.
That sport plan labored to perfection as Ewers constantly broke clear pockets and struggled to search out the open receiver with seven protection defenders. It’ll be fascinating to see whether or not Sensible employs the same method within the SEC Championship Recreation or if he’ll dial the stress again up.
Predictions
Except for the Florida sport, Ewers and his extensive receivers have pale down the stretch because the Longhorns’ protection has been burdened with carrying them. Until Ewers turns in a season-best efficiency or the Longhorns’ run sport is considerably more practical than the primary assembly, the Bulldogs will discover a option to win once more.
In what needs to be a defensive sport, I belief Carson Beck way over I do Quinn Ewers proper now. The Bulldogs beat the Longhorns as soon as once more and clinch a first-round bye.
Solar Belt Championship: Marshall Thundering Herd at Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (7:30 PM EST on ESPN)
Playoff implications: None
Neither Louisiana nor Marshall are presently ranked, so this sport gained’t have an effect on something by way of the School Soccer Playoff. Louisiana is on the lookout for its third Solar Belt title within the final 5 years whereas Marshall is looking for its first Solar Belt championship ever and first convention title since 2014. The 2 didn’t sq. off within the common season.
Matchup to observe when Louisiana has the ball (Dalton): Chandler Fields vs. Marshall’s move protection
Backup quarterback Chandler Fields has performed effectively over the previous few seasons when pressed into motion. He’s began 14 video games and performed in a number of others for the reason that begin of 2022, incomes a 76.0 passing grade within the course of.
With starter Ben Wooldridge out on account of harm, Fields can be tasked with successful a Solar Belt title towards a Marshall move protection that presents a number of issues. The Thundering Herd rank third within the FBS behind Texas and Notre Dame with a 92.2 protection grade.
Marshall’s secondary comprises a number of ball hawks who’re aggressive on the catch level. As a workforce, they’ve posted the ninth-highest compelled incompletion charge within the FBS. Security J.J. Roberts and cornerback Jacobie Henderson prepared the ground with 11 and 10 move breakups, respectively.
Fields has accomplished 7 of his 10 deep passes this season, however shouldn’t totally anticipate that to be the case this week. Marshall ranks third within the nation in deep protection grade and has allowed simply 31.8% of deep passes to be accomplished.
Matchup to observe when Marshall has the ball (Max): Can Louisiana include Marshall’s harmful backfield?
Marshall’s offense has had its fair proportion of points this 12 months. The Thundering Herd are outdoors of the highest 50 in passing grade (96th), receiving grade (a hundred and twenty fifth), pass-blocking grade (fifty fifth) and run-blocking grade (eightieth).
The most effective facet of Marshall’s offense is its backfield. The Thundering Herd make use of a committee backfield with A.J. Turner and Jordan Houston main the best way. Turner particularly is third amongst all backs within the nation with 8.3 yards per carry. Quarterback Braylon Braxton can also be very efficient on the bottom, inserting seventeenth amongst FBS signal-callers with 402 yards after contact.
Louisiana’s struggled to defend the run this 12 months, permitting 5.3 yards per try (98th) and rating 93rd in explosive run charge allowed. The Ragin’ Cajuns have executed a fairly good job at defending the quarterback run this season, permitting only one signal-caller to hurry for 50-plus yards this season.
If Louisiana will be efficient towards the run, Marshall’s offense may actually wrestle.
Predictions
Dalton: Louisiana 34, Marshall 27
The Solar Belt’s finest offense faces its finest protection for a convention title. I’ll take the offensive aspect in Louisiana, whose solely losses got here to Tulane and South Alabama when Wooldridge was harm mid-game. If the Ragin’ Cajuns shield Fields within the pocket, they’ll reclaim the Solar Belt title.
Max: Louisiana 30, Marshall 28
Even with star quarterback Ben Wooldridge out, backup Chandler Fields has seemed greater than succesful for the Ragin’ Cajuns thus far. Louisiana wins at house and wins their third Solar Belt championship of the 2020s.
Large Ten Championship: No. 1 Oregon Geese vs. No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions (8 PM EST on CBS)
Playoff implications: Each are in, the winner will get a first-round bye
The loser of Oregon–Penn State is basically assured to no less than host a first-round playoff sport, whereas the winner has an excellent probability to be the No. 1 total seed within the playoff. For the Geese, they’re both going to be the top-seeded workforce within the nation with a win and at worst the No. 5 seed with a loss. Penn State can be both the No. 1 or No. 2 seed within the playoff with a win and can nonetheless be among the many top-eight seeds with a loss.
The 2 didn’t play one another within the common season. Oregon is looking for a Large Ten title in its inaugural season as a member of the convention whereas Penn State is looking for its first in eight years.
Matchup to observe when Penn State has the ball (Dalton): Penn State’s offensive line vs. Oregon’s elite defensive entrance
Penn State’s offensive line has performed at a comparatively common stage this season after dropping three of its starters to the NFL draft after final season. This season, the Nittany Lions rank 57th within the FBS with a 70.8 total grade and have struggled to move shield towards the higher groups on their schedule.
Oregon options an elite defensive entrance that features stars similar to defensive tackles Derrick Harmon and Jamaree Caldwell and linebackers Byce Boettcher and Jeffrey Bassa. The Geese are certainly one of simply two groups, together with Texas, with a top-10 defensive position and linebacker unit per PFF grades.
Because it pertains to the move rush, solely Michigan has a greater move rush win charge than Oregon. Harmon leads all defensive tackles with 47 pressures this season. Penn State had main inside safety points towards Ohio State, which owns the one defensive position that’s akin to Oregon’s on the Nittany Lions’ schedule.
Drew Allar has performed effectively below stress this season primarily as a result of he protects the soccer effectively. He might should be even higher on this sport as he makes performs round probably shaky move safety.
Matchup to observe when Oregon has the ball (Max): Can Penn State get after Dillon Gabriel?
Dillon Gabriel has been among the best quarterbacks in faculty soccer this season, rating seventh amongst FBS signal-callers with a 90.2 PFF grade. The sixth-year senior is very deadly when defenses give him time to search out the open receiver whereas he’s simply above common once they attempt to pace him up.
Dillon Gabriel’s PFF grades by state of affairs
| State of affairs | PFF grade (FBS rank) |
| Saved Clear | 92.2 (ninth) |
| Beneath Stress | 59.0 (thirty eighth) |
| Not Blitzed | 90.7 (fiftieth) |
| Blitzed | 75.2 (forty sixth) |
Penn State’s move rush is definitely the power of its workforce. The Nittany Lions are eighth in pass-rushing grade (87.5), tenth in stress charge (38.8%) and third in sack/hit charge (18.9%). Penn State additionally blitzes at a top-30 charge within the nation (41.6%).
Edge defender Abdul Carter is the star of that unit, presently rating because the fifth-best prospect within the 2025 NFL Draft based on PFF’s massive board. Whereas Oregon’s pass-protection has been simply above common this 12 months (forty third in pass-blocking grade), the Geese’ sort out duo of Josh Conerly Jr. and Ajani Cornelius has been excellent (14th in pass-blocking grade as a duo).
If Penn State doesn’t dominate up entrance, the Nittany Lions will possible wrestle to include one of many nation’s most prolific offenses.
Predictions
Dalton: Oregon 27, Penn State 19
Penn State’s protection can maintain them on this sport, particularly if Oregon continues to wrestle within the pink zone. Somebody apart from Tyler Warren must create explosive performs for them to win, although, and that has been a significant concern all season. The Geese head into the playoff because the lone undefeated workforce.
Max: Oregon 30, Penn State 24
The Geese appear like probably the most full workforce in faculty soccer proper now. Whereas the Nittany Lion move rush may current some issues, Oregon survives and heads into the playoff with an undefeated document and the highest total seed.
ACC Championship: No. 8 SMU Mustangs vs. No. 17 Clemson Tigers (8 PM EST on ABC)
Playoff implications: SMU is probably going simply combating for a first-round bye, Clemson is combating to maintain its season alive
With an 11-1 document, it’s greater than possible that SMU is secure within the playoff even with a loss to Clemson. It’s extremely unlikely that the committee expels an 11-2 workforce in favor of a 9-3 SEC squad. It’s actually not not possible although contemplating the Mustangs’ finest victory is over an 8-4 Louisville workforce, so higher to be secure than sorry for SMU. Regardless, the Mustangs are no less than combating for the precise to skip the primary spherical of the playoff and to win the ACC in its first season as a member.
Clemson doesn’t have the identical luxurious of constructing the playoff with a loss due to its 9-3 document, so beating SMU is a requirement for the Tigers to crash the sector. Clemson is making an attempt to win its eighth ACC championship over the past 10 years.
Matchup to observe when Clemson has the ball (Dalton): Clemson’s offensive line vs. SMU’s deep defensive position
Clemson has scored 24 factors or much less this season on 5 events, dropping three of these video games. The frequent denominator in these 5 video games is that in addition they include the Tigers’ 5 lowest pass-blocking grades of the 12 months. These are additionally the 5 video games the place they performed Energy 4 groups with above-average move rushes.
Clemson’s offensive line will face one other steep problem in SMU’s defensive entrance, which ranks Eleventh within the nation in move rush grade, one spot behind Louisville, who beat the Tigers convincingly simply over a month in the past.
The Mustangs have 5 totally different defensive linemen who’ve racked up no less than 30 pressures and 4 sacks. The star of the group is Elijah Roberts, who leads the workforce with an 82.1 pass-rush grade and ranks fifth within the nation with 55 pressures this season. SMU doesn’t have to blitz a lot as a result of it has Roberts alongside Jared Harrison-Hunte, Isaiah Smith, and Jahfari Harvey, amongst others, who constantly harass quarterbacks within the pocket.
SMU has a official nine-man rotation on the defensive position that’s efficient towards the run and the move. This unit is able to controlling this sport if the Clemson offensive line performs the identical approach it has towards the higher groups they’ve seen thus far.
Matchup to observe when SMU has the ball (Max): How does Clemson include Brashard Smith?
Smith has been quietly among the best operating backs in faculty soccer this season. His 91.5 PFF grade is third amongst all tailbacks within the nation and he’s the one one within the nation with 85-plus grades as each a rusher and receiver.
Clemson has had some points defending versatile operating backs this season. For instance, Pittsburgh’s Desmond Reid caught 10 of 11 targets for 108 yards three weeks in the past on the Tigers. Clemson can also be simply one hundred and tenth amongst FBS defenses in yards per carry allowed (5.5) whereas inserting because the Energy 4’s fourth-worst workforce in explosive run-rate allowed (19.5%).
Linebackers Barrett Carter and Wade Woodaz can be tasked with guaranteeing Smith doesn’t run wild on them.
Predictions
SMU has performed probably the most constantly dominant soccer within the ACC all season. Clemson has overwhelmed only one workforce that owns a successful document. The Mustangs, led by Kevin Jennings, Brashard Smith, and an underrated protection win the convention title of their first season as members of the ACC.
As Dalton stated, SMU’s seemed like probably the most full ACC workforce this season. The Mustangs show it on Saturday night time with a detailed win over Clemson and clinch each the convention title and a first-round bye within the School Soccer Playoff.
