- Do the Eagles want Jalen Hurts to take over as a passer? Philadelphia has confirmed proficient sufficient to beat modest passing manufacturing this season, and that will have to be the case once more in opposition to the Commanders.
- Josh Allen’s legacy will not take successful if the Payments fall brief: Though Allen has been unable to beat the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes within the playoffs, one other destructive result’s extra more likely to fall on the protection than him.
- 2025 NFL Draft season is right here: Strive PFF’s best-in-class Mock Draft Simulator and find out about 2025’s high prospects whereas buying and selling and drafting in your favourite NFL crew.
Estimated Studying Time: 9 minutes
Opinions will fly concerning the 4 groups taking part in within the NFL’s convention championship video games earlier than they even begin — and, in fact, after they’re over. As such, narratives hold over every crew. Some are statistically supported, whereas others will be confirmed false.
Right here, we’ll purchase or promote one narrative for every of the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs, Buffalo Payments, Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders with supporting information to bolster the argument.
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
- Narrative: This yr’s Chiefs are extra weak than the previous two seasons’ editions.
- Purchase or Promote: Promote
Many of the thought course of behind calling the Chiefs extra “weak” than prior to now couple of years is centered on their offense not being as explosive because it was once, significantly when the crew nonetheless had large receiver Tyreek Hill.
Whereas Kansas Metropolis does sit as a bottom-seven crew in explosive run and move charges, that doesn’t imply the offense is devoid of manufacturing. The Chiefs rank 14th in crew PFF offensive grade, but when we exclude their Week 18 recreation after they sat their starters, they rank Tenth.
They ran the ball extra explosively final season, however they have been nonetheless a middling crew when it got here to creating large performs. As such, Patrick Mahomes has adjusted to a conservative type of play to provide the third-lowest common depth of goal within the NFL in 2023 and 2024.
It might sound easy, however the Chiefs have one purpose on offense: get first downs by any means vital. They run the ninth-most offensive performs per recreation whereas changing on the Tenth-highest price and scoring on the ninth-highest price. They might not boast the elite manufacturing of a Detroit or a Buffalo, however they’re nonetheless roughly the Tenth-best offense within the NFL with a quarterback who has mastered the artwork of situational soccer.
Patrick Mahomes’ Profession PFF Grades
What provides the crew steadiness is a protection that ranks second, behind Philadelphia, in PFF total grade and doesn’t have a deadly flaw that opponents can repeatedly assault. The Chiefs and the Eagles are the one two groups within the high 10 in PFF run-defense grade, PFF pass-rush grade and PFF protection grade.
Once more, if we exclude Week 18 in opposition to the Broncos, Kansas Metropolis permits fewer than 18 factors per recreation. After all, the one crew that discovered a solution to rating at the least 30 factors in opposition to their starters was Buffalo in Week 11. They’ll confront the duty of stopping Josh Allen once more within the AFC Championship recreation, but when anybody is as much as it, it is defensive mastermind Steve Spagnuolo and his proficient unit.
The Chiefs will not be as flashy offensively as they was once, however they nonetheless discover methods to win.
Buffalo Payments
- Narrative: This AFC Championship recreation will outline Josh Allen’s legacy.
- Purchase or Promote: Promote
This recreation is understandably being billed as the largest recreation of Josh Allen’s profession. After an MVP-caliber regular-season marketing campaign, he has led the Payments again to the AFC Championship recreation for the primary time since 2020. He’s undoubtedly one of many NFL’s greatest quarterbacks, within the midst of a fifth consecutive season with a 90.0-plus PFF total grade — by no means earlier than performed by a signal-caller within the PFF period (since 2006).
There are 3 ways this recreation can go. Buffalo may win and earn its first Tremendous Bowl berth in additional than 30 years; they might lose regardless of a superb effort from Allen, which has occurred within the postseason earlier than; or they might lose due to a poor outing from Allen.
At this level, the third choice appears extremely unlikely. Allen’s 92.4 PFF total grade this season is the very best of his profession. He additionally owns a 2.3% turnover-worthy play price, simply the very best clip of his profession, and has dedicated simply three turnover-worthy performs since Week 9. It might be surprising to see him fold after taking part in with such command of the offense.
So, what occurred in Allen’s earlier postseason losses, significantly the three by the hands of Kansas Metropolis? Within the 2020 AFC Championship recreation, the Payments jumped out to a 9-0 lead earlier than the Chiefs scored on their subsequent six drives and gained 38-24. Allen and the Payments merely weren’t prepared of their first look. He completed that recreation with a 56.5 PFF total grade.
Within the 2021 divisional spherical, Allen and Patrick Mahomes engaged in a basic shootout, by which Allen gave the Payments a lead with 13 seconds left in regulation. Mahomes by some means discovered a solution to tie that recreation and ultimately helped the Chiefs win in extra time. Allen completed with a 92.2 PFF total grade.
In final yr’s divisional spherical, Allen produced a modest passing stat line however nonetheless earned a stable 79.6 PFF total grade whereas accounting for 3 touchdowns. With Buffalo down by 3 factors, he drove the offense into field-goal vary, however Tyler Bass missed a 44-yard kick and the competition was successfully over.
A typical thread in every of these three video games was the underperformance of the Payments’ protection. The unit owns a 44.7 PFF total grade and a paltry 32.9 PFF protection grade throughout the three outings. Buffalo merely hasn’t been ready to determine Mahomes when it issues most.
There needs to be much more concern a few protection that ranks thirty first in PFF protection grade this season than concerning the All-Professional quarterback.
Washington Commanders
- Narrative: Jayden Daniels is the fifth-best quarterback within the NFL
- Purchase or Promote: Purchase (if we’re speaking about solely 2024)
Whatever the order one might put them in, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are extensively thought-about the 4 greatest quarterbacks within the NFL. Mahomes ranks sixth in PFF total grade this yr however will get the advantage of the doubt due to what he has achieved in his profession. Jackson, Allen and Burrow comprise the highest three this season, in that order.
The Washington Commanders are within the NFC Championship recreation for the primary time in additional than 30 years, and Jayden Daniels is the largest motive. His dual-threat skills and distinctive poise have led to him putting fifth in PFF total grade, behind the aforementioned trio and Justin Herbert.
Daniels additionally sits in fifth place in PFF’s wins above alternative metric, additional accentuating his worth. General, the info signifies this season’s fifth-best quarterback is Jayden Daniels or Justin Herbert.
Highest-Graded Quarterbacks via NFL Divisional Spherical
Whereas Herbert had a incredible season, Daniels’ case facilities on bolstering a still-flawed offense. Daniels has created explosive performs all season whereas carrying the league’s third-lowest turnover-worthy play price (1.7%). He ranks second, behind Lamar Jackson, in a number of speeding metrics amongst quarterbacks. Extra importantly, Daniels’ legs have helped the Commanders rank fifth within the league in explosive run price.
Maybe probably the most spectacular a part of Daniels’ efficiency is that he doesn’t have something near an elite supporting forged round him. His offensive line ranks twenty sixth in PFF total grade and has handled accidents within the latter half of the season. Terry McLaurin was the crew’s solely participant to complete the common season with at the least 700 receiving yards. And Washington’s protection is tied for third to final in PFF grade.
Daniels has managed to win 14 of his first 19 NFL video games, together with two within the postseason, by producing arguably the very best season ever by a rookie quarterback. At the least via his first yr, he has confirmed himself as one of many league’s elite gamers.
Philadelphia Eagles
- Narrative: Jalen Hurts must play considerably higher for the Eagles to win this week.
- Purchase or Promote: Promote (for yet another week)
Jalen Hurts hasn’t statistically lit the world on fireplace this season as a passer. His 65.6 PFF passing grade ranks twenty seventh out of 32 passers who’ve taken at the least 300 dropbacks, and he has made only one big-time throw in his previous eight begins. He’s nonetheless displayed his worth as a runner, with 15 touchdowns and an elite 90.3 PFF speeding grade, however the Eagles have seemingly gained at instances regardless of their passing recreation.
So, will Philadelphia want that passing assault, particularly Hurts, to carry out considerably higher to win a rubber match in opposition to Washington? Not essentially.
Hurts truly completed just one recreation in opposition to the Commanders this season, an Eagles victory in Week 11. Philadelphia leaned on Saquon Barkley’s 146 speeding yards and a stout defensive effort to earn the win. Hurts earned a modest 66.0 PFF passing grade that evening whereas including a speeding landing.
He began the Eagles’ Week 16 loss to Washington however departed the sport early with a concussion. Even with Kenny Pickett taking part in the remainder of the best way, it took an unbelievable game-winning drive from Daniels for the Commanders to return away with a slender, shootout victory.
Maybe Daniels and the Commanders will proceed their offensive scorching streak, however the Eagles nonetheless have the league’s highest-graded protection. In addition they nonetheless have Barkley, who amassed 348 yards throughout the primary two matchups between these groups.
These belongings result in two clear benefits for Philadelphia. First, Washington ranks twenty ninth within the NFL in PFF run-defense grade and thirtieth in yards per carry allowed. Second, the Eagles permit the bottom proportion of explosive move performs within the league and the Commanders rank twenty seventh in creating them as an offense.
Whereas it will be helpful for Hurts to have one in every of his greatest video games of the season on this spot, the Eagles are ok all through the remainder of their roster to beat a still-flawed Washington crew.
